The Trump Presidency...is Over

[Happenstance]

Either way though, America should be fucking ashamed of itself that this can even be as close as it is. 

[drahkon]

Trump will win. This is 2020.

The Electoral College is so stupid.

[Julius]

26 minutes ago, Happenstance said:

I thought this was going how a lot of people predicted? It would be fairly close throughout the night and then closer to the end Biden should start to pull ahead because all the mail in votes are counted last. Isn’t that why everyone said we probably won’t know the result for a few days and why Trump has been laying the groundwork for months that it’s all designed to screw him over (and why he’s already saying he’s gonna go to the Supreme Court over this).

Yeah, this. It's a bit closer I think even without the mail-in votes, though, which is why I think there's a bit more concern right now. Plus, it's always scary to see it looking this close, even if it won't be in the end (though it does look like it's going to be stupidly close). 

It was said before that Biden should pull ahead as more votes are counted and the actual numbers start coming in, as it's exactly why Trump wants them to stop counting in every state other than Arizona (which had a ridiculous mail-in turnout, and is dependable because counting started in advance of last night/today - you know, how it should have been done!). I mean, you can look at their supporters and handily guess who is a democrat and who is a republican based on whether they're wearing a mask or not.

Like you said, it's why Trump has been trying to cast doubt over a mail-in ballot these last few weeks due to the potential for voted fraud (despite the fact that it is estimated to only impacted some 0.009% - or something like that - of mail-in votes?). A lot of Biden supporters voted a while ago, and were careful about it. You know, the expected response during a pandemic which the US has dealt with much worse than less able countries. America is such a strange place sometimes. 

But still, I do think it's incredibly disheartening that some 65+ million Americans have still voted for Trump. I mean, he didn't even deliver on The Wall™, and he doesn't have any other bright ideas he's been touting, so I don't even know what it is that they're supporting? Do they just like his haircut? The guy just tried to tear apart democracy on live television, for goodness sake! 

It just shows how divided America is, and I think even if Biden wins, the last 4 years has set up a lot of toxicity and hatred in the coming months and years. Genuinely wouldn't be surprised if this turns out much worse on the streets than the BLM protests earlier in the summer, which is a frightening thought. 

Urgh. Plus, you know, it'd be nice to have a President over there who wasn't denying climate change when we're at the tipping point. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Julius

[Dcubed]

Whole lotta boiling frogs in America right now...

Even if Biden wins at this point, it looks like it's gonna be another presidency where the democrats get blocked by a Republican senate at every turn...

[Cube]

12 minutes ago, Julius said:

so I don't even know what it is that they're supporting?

Religion. Trump represents "old Christian values". Biden, on the other hand, is open to steer away from the harmful stuff.

Some seem to have formed a cult that claim that Trump was chosen "by god" while others just don't care as long as he gets pro-"Christian" laws through. 

 

(I put the "Christian" stuff in quotes as that's what his supporters claim, whereas these people are clearly unaware of the teachings of Jesus).

[Julius]

3 minutes ago, Cube said:

Religion. Trump represents "old Christian values". Biden, on the other hand, is open to steer away from the harmful stuff.

Some seem to have formed a cult that claim that Trump was chosen "by god" while others just don't care as long as he gets pro-"Christian" laws through. 

 

(I put the "Christian" stuff in quotes as that's what his supporters claim, whereas these people are clearly unaware of the teachings of Jesus).

I meant it as more of a tongue in cheek rhetorical, but yeah, you're absolutely right. And it's disgusting. 

I guarantee if Jesus were to come back today, they'd denounce him and treat him in just as toxic a manner - perhaps even more so - as they do minorities and anyone considered their "opposition" today. 

It really drives me up the wall, especially as someone brought up with Christian values (as I imagine would be the case for most here at some point or another). How they aren't viewed the same way as extremist groups of other religions (especially with what happened over the summer) is beyond me. Meanwhile, they're over there marginalising people of colour/different religions/genders/sexuality. 

It's infuriating too, because even though I'm not American, and I know most of us are based in or originally from the UK, social media makes the struggle over there more accessible. I've lost count of the times I've been fuming at videos showing some of the things that go on over there, and I guess that our empathy (and their apparent lack thereof) makes the gap all the wider. 

They seriously need a wake-up call. Even if Biden wins, I don't think that's going to be it. 

[Pestneb]

Looks like Biden is going to win so you can all calm down! trump declaring victory was mad even for him, although in hind sight par for the course really.

Michigan is looking like the most likely potential upset on that prognosis, maybe Nevada. But if they went for Biden game over.

 

In fairness to trump, he has a 50:50 chance of being right - he or Biden are effectively already elected to be the president for the next term, but no one quite knows which one yet.So arrogant and stupid to make that declaration at this stage.

From a UK view point I really don't know which way will favour us most, I think a trade deal with the US would have been easier under trump, but would it have been a good deal... much less sure of that. Also will Biden being in office lead to Johnson taking a more diplomatic (and perhaps more successful?) approach to negotiations with the EU? impossible to know.

I do think trump did a few good things in his time as president, but even then in a bad way or for a bad reason/with bad indirect effects. Biden who knows, I think we'll get to find out.

I imagine trump has cemented himself as the worst US president so far with his false self declared victory - even his allies slapped him down a bit for that one!

Edited November 4, 2020 by Pestneb

[Ronnie]

Went into last night optimistic about Biden, went to bed at 4am depressed assuming the vile creature had pulled it out of the bag, now the bookies have flipped a second time and Biden's getting short odds and Trump is 3 or 4 to 1. Madness. 

Edited November 4, 2020 by Ronnie

[bob]

1 hour ago, Pestneb said:

In fairness to trump, he has a 50:50 chance of being right - he or Biden are effectively already elected to be the president for the next term, but no one quite knows which one yet.So arrogant and stupid to make that declaration at this stage.

 

It's not stupidity, it's a calculated move to claim that he won it on the night, and then point out that the Democrats 'magically found' enough postal votes in the coming week, and declare voting fraud etc. 

[EEVILMURRAY]

If the Great White Hope President Trump doesn't manage to hold on to his title - I will give it a year before Biden is House of Cards'd out of the White House and Harris takes over.

[sumo73]

11 hours ago, Cube said:

Religion. Trump represents "old Christian values". Biden, on the other hand, is open to steer away from the harmful stuff.

Disagree. I believe Trump asked Mike Pence to be his VP partly as a way to keep the evangelical Christians on side. I've seen interviews from Trump, Pence and Biden and they have all spoken about their faith. I get the impression that it means a more to Pence and Biden.

For me Trump represents the businessman turned politician, the business protectionist, anti globalist, isolationist and American first idealist warts and all. A blunt instrument.

 

"Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upwards surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA". - Gordon Gekko (Wall Street - 1987)

[Jonnas]

11 hours ago, Cube said:

Religion. Trump represents "old Christian values". Biden, on the other hand, is open to steer away from the harmful stuff.

Some seem to have formed a cult that claim that Trump was chosen "by god" while others just don't care as long as he gets pro-"Christian" laws through. 

 

(I put the "Christian" stuff in quotes as that's what his supporters claim, whereas these people are clearly unaware of the teachings of Jesus).

sumo73 already pointed at this, but Trump isn't very Christian, nor well-liked by Christians (multiple times divorcee, doesn't understand biblical references, is shameless about his sexcapades, etc.). That's why Pence is his VP, because that's the main "gap" he's supposed to cover, to guarantee that hardline Christians still support republicans.

The real reason Trump can get a decent percentage of votes, and even guarantee certain states, is not because of Trump per se, but because of party loyalty, a result of the binary, polarized nature of American political culture: you're either a Democrat or a Republican, and that's it, that's your identity, for a lot of people. And they treat this status quo with the same emotional maturity as your average footie fanatic picking fights with a rival team's fans.

Hence why several people despise Trump, but vote Republican anyway, because it's the party they're voting for, and it's more important to them to "stick it to the dems" than to actually consider the implications of a Trump government. It's still blind faith, yes, it's just that it's in the party.

[LazyBoy]

I would say the Trump phenomenon is not as simple as one or two factors. Polarization is key, but not unique to Trump. Christian/social conservative identity is significant, but no longer the be all and end all I think it was in the GW Bush years. You have to look at the sense of American exceptionalism he trumpets (much the same as Bojo in the UK), which imbues in his followers a sense of self-worth that has been criminally eroded by 30-40 years of neo-liberal economic policy (honk if Thatcher's dead), a result of the removal of industries that once provided jobs and pride to those regions. 

Also the power and reach of both right wing media, combined with the transformation of the mainstream media and its integration with social media. This has created a clickbait driven & anger fueled opinion engine that no longer has the patience to do considerate analysis, instead producing a 24 hour cycle of bad v good. Demagogues thrive on that stuff where the kind are drowned out. It goes a step beyond polarization into something more dangerous.

Both of those factors have combined to form a dangerous rise in the conspiracy mindset as well, that at its basest level provides comic book storylines as a more palatable version of the truth then reality can provide. The reason life is shit and you are powerless is 'because bad people', and not due to a vast multitude of factors that would take more than a 'one-cup of tea' post on a video game forum to detail. Instead there is evil out there, and you know that truth and you are on the right side of the fight, and that makes you feel good. Most importantly - and this is where it becomes relevant to politics - it means anyone who disagrees with you is either misinformed, or they're corrupted, and cannot be reasoned with. No nuance or room for debate and compromise. Good v evil, pick a side.

[sumo73]

On 11/5/2020 at 7:33 AM, LazyBoy said:

Most importantly - and this is where it becomes relevant to politics - it means anyone who disagrees with you is either misinformed, or they're corrupted, and cannot be reasoned with. No nuance or room for debate and compromise. Good v evil, pick a side.

That's true for European politics too and this flows down to discussions about video games and films now. Nuance and rational debate is dying. I don't see Trump or Biden fixing this really although Biden has the edge in improving things.

Edited November 9, 2020 by sumo73

[LazyBoy]

12 minutes ago, sumo73 said:

That's true for European politics too and this flows down to discussions about video games and films now. Nuance and rational debate is dying. I don't see Trump or Biden fixing this really.

Absolutely, and if I may expand I think that has to be put down to changing methods of communication - i.e. the internet. It enables reductive forms of interaction, stripping away so many of the subtle methods of communication we as humans employ - intonation, body language, even pheromones. These things have been left in by natural selection for a reason - they provide us important information: about the true intentions of a person, their feelings, their emotional state. All these, lets say data points, contextualize everything else that is said. As forum members we know sarcasm is an early victim to this, but it effects everything we say. When we don't have these data points we have ambiguity, and it is left to the reader to fill in those gaps. Is this person sincere? Are they winding me up? Are they coming from a place of concern or cruelty?

We would like to think we think the best of people, but in reality we most often confront the unknown with fear, and when we get scared we lose the ability to act unemotional and instead cling to a moral high ground, reassured within ourselves that whatever else is said at least I am in the right. And then that becomes self defeating - we seek out the facts, the truths, the arguments that reinforce that standpoint, safe in the knowledge that you'll never have to climb down from that mountain. Why? Because you're no longer confronting actual people - people in whose faces you might see pain and sadness and then by mere fact of being human feel sympathy - instead you're arguing with trolls, fake news, libtards, nazis, SJWs, and so on. Put them in a group that you can write off.

If we want change we will first have to change how we communicate. 

[Pestneb]

18 hours ago, bob said:

It's not stupidity, it's a calculated move to claim that he won it on the night, and then point out that the Democrats 'magically found' enough postal votes in the coming week, and declare voting fraud etc. 

I like to try to see the best in people, especially where it makes no difference to me. I prefer seeing him as a stupid man as the alternative is worse. in any case it reveals negative aspects of the man as a person.

[LazyBoy]

16 minutes ago, Pestneb said:

I like to try to see the best in people, especially where it makes no difference to me. I prefer seeing him as a stupid man as the alternative is worse. in any case it reveals negative aspects of the man as a person.

He's an exceptional salesman with a sociopath's lack of conscience, conducting himself with a bully's mentality and invested with a sense of exceptionalism that only a child raised in wealth can posses. For anyone who really wants to dig deeper on the mans character I cannot more strongly recommend The Dollop's 2 part Trump special, which is unique in that all it does for 2 hours is list the various things the man had been accused of pre-Presidency - at a rate of about 1 a minute (maybe slight hyperbole). Here's a link:

Part 1

[Ronnie]

52 minutes ago, Pestneb said:

I like to try to see the best in people, especially where it makes no difference to me. I prefer seeing him as a stupid man as the alternative is worse. in any case it reveals negative aspects of the man as a person.

I like to see the best in people too*.

*. = except when it comes to Trump. The man is a disgusting, vile, child.

[Pestneb]

I don't like the man in anyway. But I think his negative aspects are exaggerated by his position. The way he treated the media obviously didn't do him any favours in the way he was portrayed from that quarter. Also I think the majority on here (certainly the more vocal members) are generally leaning to the left side of politics, which again, echo chambers him to be worse than he actually is. I think he's a very damaged person and a good test for our compassion, kindness and grace.

I am sure he does have good things going for him, although please don't ask for any suggestions! But at the core, he is a person, I hope that he becomes a better person in time, and for his family in particular because this man is a role model and a large influence in their lives.

[Happenstance]

Honestly I just think some people are evil and I think he's one of him. Fuck Trump, I hope he dies sad and alone.

[Magnus]

 

Full version: https://www.instagram.com/p/CHLTEAoAWh4/

[Jonnas]

12 hours ago, LazyBoy said:

I would say the Trump phenomenon is not as simple as one or two factors. Polarization is key, but not unique to Trump. Christian/social conservative identity is significant, but no longer the be all and end all I think it was in the GW Bush years. You have to look at the sense of American exceptionalism he trumpets (much the same as Bojo in the UK), which imbues in his followers a sense of self-worth that has been criminally eroded by 30-40 years of neo-liberal economic policy (honk if Thatcher's dead), a result of the removal of industries that once provided jobs and pride to those regions.

You started talking about American culture and then morphed into something UK-centric along the way.

I find it hard to believe that social conservative identity in the US has been eroding over the course of 40 years, as that implies a slow-moving series of changes. But 9/11 alone provided a huge, sudden shift in people's mentalities over there. I think it's more accurate to say that, whatever happened to the conservative movement, it started in 2001 (though Obama once implied it started with Sarah Palin in 2008).

The removal of certain industries (such as coal) in the US is an inevitability of progress. It should be the president's responsibility to transition those jobs into a more sustainable industry, but the irony is that those workers voted for the conman who promised them no change at all (despite not having the power to do so, nor the care for their plight).

11 hours ago, sumo73 said:

That's true for European politics too and this flows down to discussions about video games and films now. Nuance and rational debate is dying. I don't see Trump or Biden fixing this really.

Depends on where you see it. Facebook posts and newspaper comments provide us with the worst and dumbest of society (and quite frankly, those comments always existed in your average pub), but actual discourse from prominent politicians, how the news media choose to present them, etc. Is something else entirely.

I personally think political discourse in Germany is pretty level-headed (a lot of people seem pretty well educated regarding the political spectrum in their country, both on a national and regional level), and the political environment in Portugal for the past 5 years has been only possible thanks to careful compromises and frequent diplomacy from our mainstream parties (and certainly a far cry from the time the political discourse in my country was either "Communism bad!" or "Fascism bad!"). Compared to the simplistic polarization and bile I see in places like the US, Brazil, and Venezuela, I'd say European political culture is doing well.

7 hours ago, Pestneb said:

I don't like the man in anyway. But I think his negative aspects are exaggerated by his position. The way he treated the media obviously didn't do him any favours in the way he was portrayed from that quarter. Also I think the majority on here (certainly the more vocal members) are generally leaning to the left side of politics, which again, echo chambers him to be worse than he actually is. I think he's a very damaged person and a good test for our compassion, kindness and grace.

I am sure he does have good things going for him, although please don't ask for any suggestions! But at the core, he is a person, I hope that he becomes a better person in time, and for his family in particular because this man is a role model and a large influence in their lives.

Well, you're right that it is important to distinguish Trump the fool from Trump the politician. You'll hardly hear me making fun of his mannerisms while criticising his policies, it's important to draw the line between superficial jesting and legitimate grievances.

But even sticking to that, the man is terrible. His overt racism, his rampant misogyny, his compulsive lies, his overall irresponsibility, his lack of empathy... From the moment he said "Some, I assume, are good people" about Mexicans, to that recent meeting with the Nurse Association where he interrupted a speech about PTSD just to distribute pens... There's a lot to despise about him once you get past his goofy demeanour.

You're also right that he is a role model for a lot of people, and I find that to be very unfortunate. He's not going to change, because he's been nothing but rewarded (or ignored) for every transgression he's made. And unlike him, they're not going to coast through life with the same sort of behaviour.

[Cube]

So on top of Nevada, it now looks like Georgia and Pennsylvania are possibilities for Biden to win. Biden has just got a very, very slim lead  in Georgia (but it's predicted that the later voutes to count - the mail in ones - are for Biden), while Trump has a bigger but still slim lead in Pennsylvania.

 

He just needs one of those, but hopefully he can win more than one just to cement it slightly.

 

Edit: Now Biden has a slim lead in Pennsylvania, too.

[LazyBoy]

Looks like we're about to get the announcement.

[Londragon]

This’ll be fun. Can’t see Trump admitting he lost, wonder how he’ll frame it.