COVID-19 (The artist formally known as Coronavirus)

[Will]

Clearly there is a huge question of when to ease restrictions and by how much, but it has to happen to some extent fairly soon. It seems like people are starting to get quite mentally drained by the whole thing and you really can't let the results of the lockdown be worse (or even close) to the impact of the virus.

Any deaths caused by this are of course terrible but there is a limit to what the lockdown prevents. If people are dying because hospitals are over capacity and they couldn't be treated then there is a failure in the system somewhere. But if people are dying despite having been hospitalized and treated then really there wasn't much that could have been done. Maybe they could have avoided getting the virus in the first place but to make that viable for a sizable majority lockdown would need to be far stricter and for a much longer period of time.

 

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, killthenet said:

Restrictions have mostly been a big success but we are still seeing 600+ die every day, according to official figures the death rate in the UK is almost 1 in 8 - opening up services again to ease the strain on the economy seems like it's inviting disaster. 

I don't think you can read anything into the numbers at this point. As I understand it the testing in the UK wouldn't give you a representative death rate at all. The tests are only being done once requested on cases that are already quite severe, and that severity leads to more deaths than general cases would.

In Singapore, they started doing tests on all migrant workers as soon as that community was identified as a risk group. The tests are being done regardless of the severity of the case or even any sign of a case at all. They've found hundreds if not thousands of cases where symptoms were so mild people had no idea they even had the virus. The other cases have not been particularly serious and no deaths have resulted in that group of people.

The death rate here is currently at 0.1% - the major difference is the testing regime and how that skews the numbers.

Some form of restriction is going to persist for a long time. It will ease and get tighter dependent on how things are going. It seems a lot of people think that this easing will be the start of the end of it all but I really doubt that will be the case.

[Ike]

I don't get it, they're warning of a potential second wave, won't easing the lockdown be the end up being the trigger?

[Will]

It hinges on how the easing of the lockdown is done and how they control things afterwards.

If you go back to normal with no control in place you're probably heading for a second wave disaster.

If you ease restrictions in a controlled manner and have systems in place to track the spread then you can avoid a large second wave of mass infections.

[killthenet]

I just worry that for the UK specifically it is premature to start easing restrictions, the government have been saying since the start that we are at least two weeks behind places like Italy so surely we should be waiting another week or two before announcing any changes.

I worry that the rate of infection will spike, that people who are confused by the reports in today's papers will go overboard during the weekend and put themselves at risk. Obviously the restrictions need to be relaxed at some point but the government seem to be flying by the seat of their pants - they have no idea what the best course of action is. Hell, if they'd locked down the UK the same day as Italy I'm sure thousands of lives would have been saved, their whole approach has been a mess.

[sumo73]

2 hours ago, killthenet said:

I just worry that for the UK specifically it is premature to start easing restrictions, the government have been saying since the start that we are at least two weeks behind places like Italy so surely we should be waiting another week or two before announcing any changes.

I worry that the rate of infection will spike, that people who are confused by the reports in today's papers will go overboard during the weekend and put themselves at risk. Obviously the restrictions need to be relaxed at some point but the government seem to be flying by the seat of their pants - they have no idea what the best course of action is. Hell, if they'd locked down the UK the same day as Italy I'm sure thousands of lives would have been saved, their whole approach has been a mess.

At the beginning, the UK government might have been thinking about creating a herd immunity idea and then moved towards a lockdown instead which delayed things.

[Will]

 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, killthenet said:

Obviously the restrictions need to be relaxed at some point but the government seem to be flying by the seat of their pants - they have no idea what the best course of action is.

I think that's a little unfair. They've been taking expert advice and running as best as they can with the information available at any particular time. It's not like they're operating like Trump just saying it will all be fine and a great success. They haven't failed to act at all as Japan did. They haven't forgotten about a huge group of people as Singapore did.

I don't think anyone knows what the 'best' course of action is, and it's very easy to just pluck something different out of the air and say it would be 'better' if we'd done that. There is no way to know, and I think it would be more luck than judgement to actually get the best result - and even if you did that, it would be impossible to know.

[bob]

I think they know that the best course of action is to keep everyone quarantined over the whole summer - but they don't want to say that, as they could cause riots. So they just keep stringing everyone out, teasing them with the prospect of relaxing the rules, then whipping it away.

[Jimbob]

The rumours of Boris relaxing some lockdown measures has caused some friction between the Welsh Government and Westminster.  There's a press conference today from the First Minister announcing how Wales will deal with the lockdown, and if it'll be extended it further like Scotland or follow suit with Westminster.  Who knows, all i hope is that any restrictions being lifted doesn't cause another spike.

It's not phased me as much as other people, don't get me wrong i'd love to see friends and family in person instead of over video calls.  But it's given me more time to get things done around the flat that i'd have not had the time to do so.

Edit: Wales has extended lockdown another 3 weeks, but Garden centres, Recycling centres and Libraries can re-open (councils have the power to decide on this one).  And we can go out more than once a day for exercise as of Monday

Edited May 8, 2020 by Jimbob

[killthenet]

I think it's completely fair to criticise the government response. They had a couple of months of lead time when China locked down Wuhan to plan and build contingencies but when it did hit our shores they reacted like they hadn't considered the possibility of the outbreak reaching us. Their entire plan was herd immunity but when it became clear that the public wasn't going to accept 200,000 deaths they changed tact and pivoted towards social distancing. They offered the bare minimum of economic assurances and changed their policy in drips and drabs whenever they received enough criticism from the public and the media, literally only doing things when it suited them to. 

If the government had actually put proper contingencies in place then the health and social care sector would have been much better prepared for the pandemic, the outbreak that spread through care homes and needlessly infected hundreds of vulnerable people is entirely the government's fault. 

[Ashley]

At some point I was considering waiting until some time after the lockdown has eased to see how things go before going on my travels again but the way things are going currently I may just get the first flight out of here because I think we'll be hit again with another lockdown down the road so may as well get out while I can. I was planning to go further afield but maybe stick in europe and take advantage of the EHIC (just hoping the government comes to its senses and extends the transition...) if worse comes to worse.

Sicily's offer of financial assistance for tourists (once reopen) looks awfully good right now...

[Ashley]

So... Everyone clear?

(UK folks)

[Dcubed]

Yeah, we're screwed.  We're gonna end up with half the country dead by the end of this.

[bob]

Why the hell did they come up with a 5 point scale, and then set us at 3.5?

[sumo73]

When you know that everyone in the UK apart from England won't be using the new slogan you have to ask yourself why. The old slogan was simple, clear and effective but this will confuse people regardless of whatever 'R' is right now.

[Rummy]

 

"Ladles and Jellyspoons:
I come before you
to stand behind you,
and tell you something I know nothing about:
As next Thursday is Good Friday,
there will be a Fathers' meeting for Mothers only.
Wear your best clothes if you don't have any,
and please stay at home, if you can be there.
Admission is free, pay at the door,
have a seat on me; please sit on the floor.
No matter where you manage to sit,
the man in the balcony will certainly spit.
I thank you for your unkind attention,
and now present the next act:
The Four Corners of the Round Table."

[Rummy]

6 hours ago, sumo73 said:

When you know that everyone in the UK apart from England won't be using the new slogan you have to ask yourself why. The old slogan was simple, clear and effective but this will confuse people regardless of whatever 'R' is right now.

I heard the R rate is massively skewed in care homes. I think the govt are playing fast and loose with that thinking it means relatively low a problem in rest of population but the care home situatoon is fucking crazy as it is from what I hear so that realtivity could be notably large.

[Glen-i]

What the hell does "Control The Virus" even mean?

Do I have to run around batting it over the head with a rolled up newspaper?

I don't even buy newspapers!

EDIT: Wait, I've cracked it!

That graph gives me all the answers! I'm staying alert... at home.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Glen-i

[Will]

It seems the UK has entered a similar situation to where we're at in Singapore. There is quite a sensible alert system and what should be done based on the prevailing situation. Then it's being implemented in a totally haphazard manner with nobody really sure what any of the rules are within each phase.

The majority of people will do what is best for them and their family rather than what is best for everyone unless they're forced to by law. The lack of clarity will be a huge problem for handling this thing, but it does seem like the general direction of what they're trying to do is correct.

[Ashley]

11 hours ago, bob said:

Why the hell did they come up with a 5 point scale, and then set us at 3.5?

They can't control the scale bob. They only came up with it. You can't expect them to control it!

[Charlie]

12 hours ago, Ashley said:

So... Everyone clear?

(UK folks)

Perfectly clear up in Scotland, thanks. Only change is we can exercise multiple times a day.

The main reason, for me, that last night was a shambles was because it was billed as an address to the nation and not an address to England which is where everything he announced actually takes effect. What he was saying actually made sense apart from how people should get to work if they can't use public transport, can't walk/cycle and don't have a car (or parking at work).

[Ashley]

This just says it all in terms of the clarity of messaging when it comes to England:

Quote

In his speech last night Boris Johnson said the lockdown rules for England were being changed so that people could play sports, “but only with members of your own household”.

But at the same time No 10 briefed journalists separately that people would be allowed to meet one other person from outside their household outdoors, provided they kept two metres apart.

As already mentioned, Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, confirmed this when he gave interviews this morning. He told BBC Breakfast:

Quote

If you’re out in the park and you’re two metres apart, we’re saying now, and use some common sense and you socially distance, you can meet up with other people.

The key thing is people want to get outdoors, particularly with this weather, particularly I think for mental health and, frankly, the frustration people feel if they’re cooped up for too long for protracted periods.

We want to make sure that that people can enjoy the outdoors more ... but people must stay alert, because the more we do some of the things that we want to do, the more we need to just be careful about this social distancing.

 

Asked if people could meet both their parents outside like this, at one point he agreed with a suggestion that you could meet one parent in the morning, and another in the afternoon. But in another interview he said you could meet both at the same time, provided you kept two metres apart. (See 8.59am.)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/11/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-to-give-more-detail-on-lockdown-changes?page=with:block-5eb9171c8f0846f9cd55605c#block-5eb9171c8f0846f9cd55605c

[bob]

I think you're allowed to meet anyone, provided you stay 2m apart and don't make a sport out of it.

[bob]

[Ashley]

2 hours ago, bob said:

I think you're allowed to meet anyone, provided you stay 2m apart and don't make a sport out of it.

You can make certain sports out of it!

Quote

[you can] use outdoor sports courts or facilities, such as a tennis or basketball court, or golf course – with members of your household, or one other person while staying 2 metres apart

 

[Cube]

A Tory MP wants to overturn two referendums and close the Welsh parliament just so he can go to a Welsh beach.