Fierce_LiNk Posted October 19, 2019 Author Posted October 19, 2019 Thoughts on the Johnson deal? I'm expecting it to go through, either today or early next week.
Grazza Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Fierce_LiNk said: Thoughts on the Johnson deal? I'm expecting it to go through, either today or early next week. Same here, unfortunately.
killthenet Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 Decision has been withheld after MP's voted for a delay so the deal won't get through until next week at the earliest. I really don't see the difference between Johnson's deal and May's one that was (repeatedly) rejected earlier this year. To be honest I never felt like I fully understood that one either.
Pestneb Posted October 19, 2019 Posted October 19, 2019 (edited) When Parliament decides it wants something REALLY bad, it can do it quickly, as we saw with the Benn act. But Parliament doesn't have the unity for Johnson's deal, so imo it's not likely to pass before October 31st. so Parliament seem to be shooting for an extension. Only... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-extension/macron-says-opposes-brexit-extension-if-uk-parliament-rejects-deal-idUSKBN1WX1NL https://www.cityam.com/emmanuel-macron-says-he-will-veto-brexit-delay/ So No deal or retracting article 50 altogether seem the most likely to me. Retracting article 50 would require consensus in parliament, while no deal just requires parliament to continue bickering amongst themselves and "sleepwalking" into no deal In fact, I'm not sure that we're not already there, unless Macron et al grant us a small extension. I hope I am wrong though.. personally retraction>extension>Johnson's deal>no deal, but I guess we'll see. Would have been nice to be able to say at least we knew where we are on Brexit after all these years As for the deal it self, I think the main change is the Ireland gets to choose in it's parliament whether it aligns more closely to the ROI or UK, effectively, and if it chooses closer alignment to UK some sort of border set up would need to be put into place, but again, that is a decision made by NI, not imposed either by the EU or UK. DUP don't like it, while the other side probably rather like it. Edited October 19, 2019 by Pestneb
Glen-i Posted October 20, 2019 Posted October 20, 2019 So, BoJo sent that extension letter. Unsigned, and with another letter basically saying "I don't actually want an extension." He's like a bloody child!
Will Posted October 20, 2019 Posted October 20, 2019 The whole thing is idiotic, and the majority of the people involved should be ashamed of themselves. 27 minutes ago, Glen-i said: So, BoJo sent that extension letter. Unsigned, and with another letter basically saying "I don't actually want an extension." He's like a bloody child! He is, but it was fairly obvious something like this would happen. It's like forcing the naughty kid at school to write a letter to apologise for disrupting the class - it's never going to result in something serious that we can hold up as an example of how to do things properly. Totally stupid. It seems like no matter what happens, we're going to be in a crappy position. Go ahead with the BoJo deal, and it's done, but we're in a worse position than we are now. Extend and have an election which, as the conservatives haven't been able to get Brexit done, would probably lead to the Brexit party taking most of the 'leave' vote and having enough power to force something even worse. Or else it's a no-deal and who knows what kind of a disaster that will be. I'm not sure what we'll all do once this is over, I haven't seen anything else on the news for the last few years. 1
Jimbob Posted October 21, 2019 Posted October 21, 2019 People are hoping a delay will happen, but would the EU agree to another extension seeing as the last one they said this would be it. Lot of people doing the march on Saturday. Once we either leave or remain in the EU, i'm not sure what the media will be able to talk about.
Fierce_LiNk Posted October 21, 2019 Author Posted October 21, 2019 Why is there the assumption that Brexit will suddenly end on 31st October? This is realistically only stage 1. There will be many more discussions to be had after this around future trading arrangements and so forth. This is meant to be the easy bit. If you're suffering from Brexit fatigue and are tired of the mess that has already been made, then I'm afraid that I have some bad news. Brexit will dominate at least the next 5 years of news, probably more so. When you factor in that we're already 3 years in, that will bring it close to (if not) a decade. 3
Will Posted October 22, 2019 Posted October 22, 2019 That's true. But don't you think that will be the cleanup operation of the disaster? It will still be news, but just not quite as compelling as watching in real-time as the bomb goes off destroying everything in its path.
Happenstance Posted October 28, 2019 Posted October 28, 2019 I hope they send 2 letters. First one accepting the extension request, the second directly to Boris Johnson saying they are doing this just to spite him. 4
Pestneb Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 So election is next (maybe!) what do people think about the lib dems chances, with them saying they will cancel Brexit? The remain vote seems less fractured to me than the leave (I imagine Farage will happily protect his EU parliament income and domestic anti EU stance by splitting Tory votes so pro EU parties can gain the upper hand....)
Will Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Pestneb said: So election is next (maybe!) what do people think about the lib dems chances, with them saying they will cancel Brexit? The remain vote seems less fractured to me than the leave (I imagine Farage will happily protect his EU parliament income and domestic anti EU stance by splitting Tory votes so pro EU parties can gain the upper hand....) I think the lib dems will appeal to people who don't have a strong support for either of the big two and want a people's vote, basically exactly who they usually do. On the leave side I actually think they're very well aligned, such that if this election happens then Brexit will be harder than it's set to be as things stand. The 'sensible' leavers will go with the tories and the lower socio-economic classes will go with the Brexit Party who will pledge to leave with no deal and get us out of the 'hell' of the EU. I see a scenario where conservatives are the biggest though without a majority, but this time backed up by a hefty Brexit Party contingent which between them are able to put through a much harder Brexit.
Happenstance Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 My problem is that I won't vote Conservative, I'd usually vote for Labour but I don't like or trust Corbyn at all and it feels like a vote for the Lib Dems will be a wasted one.
bob Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 As much as i want to just cancel Brexit, i don't think it's the correct way to go. Also i don't want to vote for LD. I'm happy to vote for Labour, who will hopefully go for a confirmation ref (although I'd prefer to have one of those before we have a GE). If the country still votes for Brexit (i.e. Boris' deal) after all this shit, then i think that's what we should have. Having said that, who knows what propaganda fuckery they'll pull in the lead up to either a GE or Vote ². 1
Beast Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Happenstance said: My problem is that I won't vote Conservative, I'd usually vote for Labour but I don't like or trust Corbyn at all and it feels like a vote for the Lib Dems will be a wasted one. What is it about Corbyn that you don't trust? Genuinely just wondering. I find him to be okay and much better than the idiot we have now. I never vote Tory anyway. I just really want Brexit to go now. I think it was a huge mistake from the start and I still do today. My mind hasn't changed or swayed one bit. Hated the idea from the start and I hate it even more now. I see it as something completely pointless and was built literally on lies from the start. I also still find it very unfair that people voted based on those lies and considering the vote was extremely close, they should've either had another vote with better knowledge and truth or just abolish it altogether. If it was up to me, I'd scrap the idea completely. 2
Kav Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 A lot more than Brexit is riding on this Election. 1
Fierce_LiNk Posted October 29, 2019 Author Posted October 29, 2019 This is pretty shit, in my opinion. All of the other parties are playing Johnson's game and are just doing what he wants. He has "a deal" that apparently has the numbers to go through, so he should be focusing on that. The bigger issue is that he stuck too hard to his October 31st deadline and wasn't willing to budge from that. The extension given by the EU until the end of January is flexible, meaning the UK could leave at any time before that. So, there is plenty of time for Johnson to get his deal through. The truth of the matter is that he tried to railroad his own deal through without it being properly scrutinised. Now that the house didn't agree to be railroaded into putting it through without properly looking at it, he has effectively done that childish thing of picking up his football and going home. I'm annoyed at both Labour and the Lib Dems for not doing much more sooner to make a serious attempt at a second referendum/final say. More so Labour, because the Lib Dems actually made the right kind of noises in this area, but the backing wasn't there. Due to the other parties refusing to work together, the Conservatives are going to get their own way. What Johnson wants to happen is for the Conservatives to win more seats so that he can get his deal through with as little scrutiny as possible. This is partly about that, and also about the Conservatives consolidating their power. He will go to the polls stating that he has a "credible Brexit deal" and will look to pick up seats on the back of that. We are now in the position where any deal will seemingly do, even if this is very arguably worse than the one that May had. As much as Labour will try to bring the argument onto other things (rightfully so), this is going to be very much a single-issue election, or at least that is the picture that the Conservatives are going to paint.
Nicktendo Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 The decline of Britain over the past few years is something, you would think, came straight out of a fiction novel. Politicians and the media both deserve equal blame for the absolute state the country is in. The lies. The self-interest. The arrogance. It honestly makes me sick. I've permanently checked out and won't be coming back. Got my 5-year EU residency last week, started working and paying taxes. Registered a proxy vote, but at this point, I don't even think I'll bother. I'll be watching from the sidelines and counting my lucky stars I got out before it was too late.
Kav Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 @Fierce_LiNk Labour, throughout 2019 tabled motions for a People's Vote 4 times, it got defeated each time, there was never a majority for one in Parliament.
Fierce_LiNk Posted October 29, 2019 Author Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Kav said: @Fierce_LiNk Labour, throughout 2019 tabled motions for a People's Vote 4 times, it got defeated each time, there was never a majority for one in Parliament. I've been trying to find the tabled motions for a People's Vote by both Labour and the Lib Dems, but am not having much success. Do you have any links which show how many voted for and against each motion? I've found the results of Dame Margaret Beckett's confirmatory public vote, which was held in March. https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/661#ayes It got defeated, with 27 Labour members voting for the other side, which swung that vote.
Pestneb Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Kav said: A lot more than Brexit is riding on this Election. Weren't those 3 governments work? And a few of these aren't as I see it really because of the government (Grenfell surely is a local government issue, Windrush historic mishandling... that is my understanding, if I am wrong please someone please cure my ignorance on the finer points!) But yes, I think it's poor that Brexit has been the main issue now over 2 GE's (if this one is approved). I don't think a GE is conducive to fixing the issues in parliament. Those exist because of the divisions in the UK over Brexit, and the next government will have the same issues as May's and Johnson's, because I doubt there will suddenly be harmony amongst the next batch of MP's. Definitely people need to think carefully on this vote but personally if I was still living in the UK I'd really struggle, because the MP is good, but frankly I'd not consider Johnson or Corbyn to be a good PM for the country. Last time round I abstained for that reason... I couldn't bother registering to vote when I didn't feel strongly enough to vote for any of the candidates. I think all the parties are to blame, before article 50 was triggered Parliament should have been firmer, made their positions clear. Instead they failed to employ any foresight and as a result it was only after a deal was made that they realised there was no accord for any one option. I don't think a PV is a good solution either any more, I imagine it would either be too simplistic or to convoluted, basically like parliaments indicative votes thing. Maybe that alternate vote thing COULD be useful, with several options being numbered in order of preference and then the least popular option being eliminated, all votes for that are transferred to the next favourite option until eventually there is a final option, few people's first choice, but the fairest compromise perhaps? Cancel Brexit No deal Brexit Johnson's deal I know some think No deal shouldn't be on there at all, but I do think it should be there to see what people think - I don't believe there would be a majority for that option in any case.
Grazza Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 55 minutes ago, Nicktendo said: The decline of Britain over the past few years is something, you would think, came straight out of a fiction novel. Politicians and the media both deserve equal blame for the absolute state the country is in. The lies. The self-interest. The arrogance. It honestly makes me sick. It bothers me greatly how easy it has been to stir people up. People seem to have become entrenched in their views, rather than having an honest discussion about the best way forward. We have a prime minister who has ridden roughshod over all rules and precedent, and his supporters have overlooked it because they see him as on their side. There has been no attempt to find out the public's opinion on the Single Market and Customs Union as separate entities, or even if we still want to leave at all. Almost four years on, surely there is a time limit when he Leave vote loses its legitimacy. 1 hour ago, Fierce_LiNk said: What Johnson wants to happen is for the Conservatives to win more seats so that he can get his deal through with as little scrutiny as possible. This is partly about that, and also about the Conservatives consolidating their power. He will go to the polls stating that he has a "credible Brexit deal" and will look to pick up seats on the back of that. We are now in the position where any deal will seemingly do, even if this is very arguably worse than the one that May had. As much as Labour will try to bring the argument onto other things (rightfully so), this is going to be very much a single-issue election, or at least that is the picture that the Conservatives are going to paint. I'm guessing you've seen this, but still... 1 2
Dcubed Posted October 29, 2019 Posted October 29, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Pestneb said: So election is next (maybe!) what do people think about the lib dems chances, with them saying they will cancel Brexit? The remain vote seems less fractured to me than the leave (I imagine Farage will happily protect his EU parliament income and domestic anti EU stance by splitting Tory votes so pro EU parties can gain the upper hand....) None unfortunately. They just don't have the necessary power base. Labour is the only hope we really have for a second referendum/cancellation of Article 50; especially if they end up forming a coalition with the Lib Dems. To be honest though... I'm mostly scared about the Brexit party. They are the racists and bigots that got us into this mess to begin with and they will likely gain huge ground in a GE as they unleash explosive propaganda again... Edited October 29, 2019 by Dcubed 1
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