Brexit - UK negotiates a deal

[Dcubed]

10 minutes ago, Glen-i said:

The EU Withdrawal agreement has been rejected once again with a majority of 58.

May is implying that she'll try again.

I reckon that she'll probably run out of time before punching through that diamond wall...

[Ganepark32]

It really is a complete shambles. 3 failed votes on her deal, no majority on any of the indicative votes for alternatives, rejection of no deal and no want to put it back to the public or revoke Article 50. In any other line of work, this lot would've been canned before this point but it's like a bunch of children trying to point score.

I had hoped the deal wouldn't pass today because of how she went about it. If that had been how it passed, with a loose notion of May resigning, splitting the deal in two and the hope that people would simply vote because it was March 29th, the day we were meant to leave the EU, then democracy as it stands would've been dead in this country. Not that it isn't already. As annoying as the Tories have been about how they've gone about things, Labour have needed to stand up for the people they were meant to represent and they haven't done it.

The only logical choice would be to send the votes back to the people. If MPs are able to change their minds, and in some cases on a dime purely on the basis of potentially getting their grubby mitts on the Tory Leadership and PM-ship, then surely the public should be allowed to have their say because there will no doubt be people who've changed their minds as well. It'll never happen because of shear stubbornness though.

I just hang my head in shame really that all of this has even happened. And who knows, it could be set to get even worse.

Edit: will say that seeing the number of UKIP flags outside parliament in the BBC's coverage is appalling but if it comes to a general election, the Tories will no doubt see the loss of votes that way.

Edited March 29, 2019 by Ganepark32

[Kav]

The biggest hint to me that a General Election will now be incoming isn’t the hints that the media have given, it isn’t even Theresa May saying that the only way she sees a way forward with Brexit is a change of “THIS House” in the Commons, it was Sayeeda Warsi stating that she will stop publicly outing the ongoing islamophobia in the Tory Party for one month.

After campaigning against it for the last couple years, why would she all of a sudden put the brakes on her campaign when the media is finally beginning to give it any attention?

[Grazza]

At least things are becoming clearer, I say.  Kenneth Clarke's full Customs Union plan and Margaret Beckett's Confirmatory Referendum plan were the two most popular options in the indicative votes, so hopefully support for those will galvanise on Monday.  The most obvious way forward is to put the Customs Union plan (probably the only type of Brexit that could get through Parliament) vs Remain in another referendum.  I also like the way they're calling it a Confirmatory Referendum, because no one can say we've had one of those.

 

This is assuming the EU will allow a long extension, though (thank goodness for Donald Tusk).  If not, Theresa May really should just revoke Article 50 and put and end to this mess.

[Fierce_LiNk]

Unless I've read it wrong, it's the second round of the indicative votes tonight. I'm expecting much of the same as last time around, with the customs union and referendum proposals to get the most votes yet again. I've got a feeling that we'll see a majority tonight in favour of something, most likely a customs union. 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but being in a customs union doesn't necessarily mean that there will be no hard border in Ireland. There still doesn't seem to be any progress in that area. 

[bob]

What's the point of a second round of indicative votes we won, get over it? Has anything actually changed? Won't the results be the same again?

 

 

[killthenet]

I think parliament are looking at the first round of indicative votes as a sort of sounding out of support, nobody expected any of the options to receive a majority the first time round. But after the customs union 2.0 and second referendum received so many votes the first time round there will have been discussions between supporters of them both in an attempt to make a deal for the second round of indicative votes - "if you vote for the customs union then i'll vote for the second referendum" - which would shift the numbers enough for them both to gain a majority. Parliament would then have a legitimate reason to debate them as genuine routes forward and would be able to show the EU that they are capable of reaching some sort of consensus, paving the way forward for another extension beyond April 12th.

[Grazza]

2 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but being in a customs union doesn't necessarily mean that there will be no hard border in Ireland. There still doesn't seem to be any progress in that area. 

 

Yeah, that's my understanding of it too.  Whilst it makes trade deals with the rest of the world less likely for us (and certainly rules out tariff-free trade), there could still be a divergence in standards of goods.  That's why, despite all the criticisms (and I have read them), I still think Customs Union + Single Market is the only decent form of Brexit.

 

Not that I want any form of Brexit at all.  Surely, as it's causing this much trouble and upsetting so many people, it should be called off?  I know loads of Leave voters and I guarantee very few had any idea of how complicated it was.  I'd say the largely unforeseen issue of the Irish border alone is enough to think again.  Three years on, we should find out what "the will of the people" actually is now.

[Pestneb]

I think the Irish border is a trump card that the EU is using, I do thing they are being a  little facetious with it and with this backstop plan, quite frankly it gives too much power to the EU in future negotiations.

Brexit as I gather was about:

controlling immigration

Sovereignty (I find it appalling that I could renounce my UK citizenship and then have greater rights in the UK as an EU citizen - equal would be fair enough, but superior is just really wrong)
Trade - being able to make deals independently, free of the EU's protectionist inward looking stance

I think people disliked the idea of paying the EU money, then the EU giving x amount back, but stipulating how that money could be spent, so basically more financial independence for the UK

Fear of never being given another chance to leave (and tbh I think had the referendum come a decade later the vote would have been different - the amount of EU propaganda aimed at primary school kids is astonishing)

Forcing Cameron out (and ideally forcing a general election +defeat for the tories)

For remaining there was

status quo,

agreement with the EU's main principles,

economy (being part of the 3rd biggest economy & trade with the rest of the EU as an insider)

Supporting the conservative party + Cameron

this is off the top of my head, I'm sure there are other more negative reasons (such as racism - which could have led people to either choice tbh)

 

But basically, any Brexit agreement on the cards (the one offered by the EU, aka May's deal)  doesn't really seem to tick many of those boxes off... the only two that seem to work are the two that government have 100% ruled out - No deal, or edit undo on Brexit.

[Mr-Paul]

46 minutes ago, Pestneb said:

I think the Irish border is a trump card that the EU is using, I do thing they are being a  little facetious with it and with this backstop plan, quite frankly it gives too much power to the EU in future negotiations.

Brexit as I gather was about:

controlling immigration

Sovereignty (I find it appalling that I could renounce my UK citizenship and then have greater rights in the UK as an EU citizen - equal would be fair enough, but superior is just really wrong)
Trade - being able to make deals independently, free of the EU's protectionist inward looking stance

I think people disliked the idea of paying the EU money, then the EU giving x amount back, but stipulating how that money could be spent, so basically more financial independence for the UK

Fear of never being given another chance to leave (and tbh I think had the referendum come a decade later the vote would have been different - the amount of EU propaganda aimed at primary school kids is astonishing)

Forcing Cameron out (and ideally forcing a general election +defeat for the tories)

For remaining there was

status quo,

agreement with the EU's main principles,

economy (being part of the 3rd biggest economy & trade with the rest of the EU as an insider)

Supporting the conservative party + Cameron

this is off the top of my head, I'm sure there are other more negative reasons (such as racism - which could have led people to either choice tbh)

 

But basically, any Brexit agreement on the cards (the one offered by the EU, aka May's deal)  doesn't really seem to tick many of those boxes off... the only two that seem to work are the two that government have 100% ruled out - No deal, or edit undo on Brexit.

Sorry, a lot of this post is bollocks. The Irish border isn't a trump card that the EU is using. It's a necessity to uphold the Good Friday agreement and keep the peace on the freedom of Ireland and not have a border between the two nations. It's irresponsible from the UK that this wasn't ever considered in the first place.

Your point about sovereignty is bollocks - you don't have more rights as an EU citizen in the UK than a UK citizen.

There isn't 'pro-EU propaganda' in schools either - not sure where you've pulled that notion from.

The vote to leave was built on lies, un-achievable promises and xenophobia.

And to put that one of the main reasons to vote to remain was a vote to support the Conservatives/Cameron is rubbish.

You are right that no Brexit deal will please everyone.No deal will horribly damage our country. But the government are refusing to compromise to make a deal that will satisfy more. They're despicable.

The referendum should never have been held in the first place.

[Kav]

Once again:

- Customs Union voted down

- Common Market 2.0 voted down

- People’s Vote voted down

- Revoking Article 50 voted down

No Deal already dismissed, May’s Deal repeatedly dismissed.

Looks likely we’ll be heading for a General Election sometime soon to try & change the House so that a majority decision may pass.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Kav

[Will]

Given the current mix of the house it's really not a surprise nothing can get done. We have majority of MPs who ideally want to remain but don't want to be see to go against the will of the people to leave. There's no government majority at the same time as having just enough rebels to destroy any deal that is close. I don't know why we continue to bother with trying to get anything through based on this.

The UK has a strong economy and things will be fine no matter what happens. If it was up to me I'd leave without a deal and then start negotiating as needed with Europe, we'll be in a much stronger position if that happens IMO. Short term there might be a few difficulties but I think over time it would work out for the best. It really seems at the moment that any "deal" that we do basically leaves us with too much European control yet no seat at the table to change anything - that would be the worst situation possible following all of this.

[Grazza]

I'm genuinely shocked and surprised by the lack of progress yesterday, and appalled at the way decent MPs such as Nick Boles and Dominic Grieve have been sidelined and humiliated.  It's hard to imagine what's going to happen next - I hope there are enough honourable Conservative MPs left to bring the Government down if necessary, but I'm losing faith.

 

Personally, I do not fear a Hard Brexit economically - I agree we'll work something out.  I'm just angry that the economic hard-right have been allowed to pursue their deregulatory Brexit.  The Leave vote was sold on "We could be like Norway" and "No one's suggesting we leave the Single Market", when the truth is those weren't their intentions at all.

[LazyBoy]

I just find it hard to believe that 2 years in I still have yet to hear any convincing proposals for how we move forward as a country and maximise these possibilities that I've been told are now open to us. I voted remain and we lost - fine, I can accept that. So whats the plan? We get to make our own trade deals? And do what with them? What's the strategy, the goal, the potential benefits? I'm not saying they're not possible, I just want someone to tell me what they were thinking we can get out of this?

The utter breadth of failure over the past 2 years, not just of May and the Tory's but the whole of parliament to manage this is just outstanding, and cannot be seen as anything other than symptomatic of a system that is no longer fit for purpose. Its not just Brexit - where to recap Parliament has lacked the collective political confidence to clarify the nations desires and requirements, and then failed to provide a convincing vision of the future and deliver it. Its not just Brexit - I honestly cannot think of how in the now 30 years I've been alive anything has gotten better in the UK (though I am thinking in particular in selfish terms). Is there someone here who can convince me our version of government still suits our needs?

[Fierce_LiNk]

So...May wants another extension, but doesn't want the UK to take part in the European Elections. So, it's again unlikely we'll be leaving in 10 days and will be looking to leave some time before 22nd May. 

Disappointed with the votes again yesterday, but the results seemed a bit closer. Again, there's something of an appetite for a customs union and/or final vote. 

[Pestneb]

On 4/1/2019 at 8:03 PM, Mr-Paul said:

Sorry, a lot of this post is bollocks. The Irish border isn't a trump card that the EU is using. It's a necessity to uphold the Good Friday agreement and keep the peace on the freedom of Ireland and not have a border between the two nations. It's irresponsible from the UK that this wasn't ever considered in the first place.

Your point about sovereignty is bollocks - you don't have more rights as an EU citizen in the UK than a UK citizen.

There isn't 'pro-EU propaganda' in schools either - not sure where you've pulled that notion from.

The vote to leave was built on lies, un-achievable promises and xenophobia.

And to put that one of the main reasons to vote to remain was a vote to support the Conservatives/Cameron is rubbish.

You are right that no Brexit deal will please everyone.No deal will horribly damage our country. But the government are refusing to compromise to make a deal that will satisfy more. They're despicable.

The referendum should never have been held in the first place.

Sorry but it's not bollocks.

1) I was talking about the backstop, not the border. Nothing against what you wrote, but it is irrelevant because you're arguing against a point I never made.

2) Actually, again not bollocks. Post brexit who knows, but if freedom of movement is retained it would be far easier for me to return to the UK without my UK (but with my EU) citizenship than with it.

3) I have seen plenty of it with my own eyes, it's not enforced dictatorship style but it certainly has been produced. and here : https://www.tes.com/news/eu-propaganda-schools

4) sure, but then the vote to remain was far from the truth.

5) Point, I imagine no one would have voted to save his skin, though I put it mainly as a counter to the opposing option, which I suspect did carry a few votes!

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Pestneb

[bob]

Can't stop laughing at this

[Grazza]

On 01/04/2019 at 6:08 PM, Pestneb said:

Brexit as I gather was about:

controlling immigration

Sovereignty (I find it appalling that I could renounce my UK citizenship and then have greater rights in the UK as an EU citizen - equal would be fair enough, but superior is just really wrong)
Trade - being able to make deals independently, free of the EU's protectionist inward looking stance

I think people disliked the idea of paying the EU money, then the EU giving x amount back, but stipulating how that money could be spent, so basically more financial independence for the UK

Fear of never being given another chance to leave (and tbh I think had the referendum come a decade later the vote would have been different - the amount of EU propaganda aimed at primary school kids is astonishing)

Forcing Cameron out (and ideally forcing a general election +defeat for the tories)

 

Just wanted to say I think you're right about these things.  Whilst I may have come to conclusion that leaving the EU isn't worth the stress and strain, I do think there have been legitimate misgivings about the EU building up for many years (with each treaty that gets signed, especially).  I particularly feel not enough attention has been given to the fear of ever-closer union.  Whilst a "United States of Europe" may be for own good, I think the public resents the perceived secrecy around it.  Many on the continent seem to be enthusiastic about a federal Europe, whereas our prime ministers have signed each treaty as quietly as they could (especially Lisbon) and never put across the positive sides of the concept.  Either way, rightly or wrongly, I do feel the UK is not ready to be a full part of such a project. (And the flip side is, we're holding them back.)

 

Which brings us to the discussions between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn.  Being part of a full Customs Union with the EU completely eliminates the backstop (and as the problem so far has been the refusal of the DUP to get on board, I'm surprised they didn't come to this conclusion earlier).  On top of that, how about we pledge alignment with the Single Market?  That would solve the Irish border issue.  This would ruin the plans of the hard-right deregulators (notice how angry they are about it) and keep us in the European market while giving us back independence over non-trade matters and full border control.  And when the European Army is formed, we should of course be the closest ally.  The Customs Union + alignment with Single Market plan would place us on an outer circle of the EU, which my gut instinct tells me is what most Brits want, and might actually be the right form of Brexit.

[Happenstance]

Well there we go then, May stepping down as PM 7th June.

[Glen-i]

3 minutes ago, Happenstance said:

Well there we go then, May stepping down as PM 7th June.

And naturally, all the Tories who made this happen are now tweeting nice compliments about her.

Disgusting hypocrisy there.

[Eenuh]

1 hour ago, Glen-i said:

And naturally, all the Tories who made this happen are now tweeting nice compliments about her.

Disgusting hypocrisy there.

And will now be vying for her job... 

[bob]

If Hunt, Gove or Raab get it, I might genuinely cry.

When was the last time we had any actual competent politicians in this country?

[Happenstance]

1876

[Fierce_LiNk]

Not really all that surprising that she's gone. Unfortunately, she's made too many mistakes and there are simply too many people around her who want Brexit to go in a different direction and will therefore disagree with her decisions. 

My concern is the longer term impact that this will have on potential future female Prime Ministers. Thatcher is very divisive (I personally hated her) and May will surely go down as one of the worst in history. That's got to be a concern going forward.

Also also, please can the next PM not be one of the unholy trinity of Hunt-Gove-Johnson. 

[Pestneb]

I don't think it's the "female" part that's the issue, more the politician part. Cameron, Clegg (sure he was deputy but "let's scrap student fee's... oh, now I'm in power... well ok then, let's triple them!"), Brown and I think Blair. They all had huge failures. Tbh I like May least for her work as a home secretary.

I think the outcome of brexit is looking better now, for both remain and leave camps.

 

I was looking at the contenders for next PM, Gove is my main "no thanks" out of the bunch, I think Johnson is current favourite from what I've read so far (not too sure why though)

Edited May 24, 2019 by Pestneb