Nicktendo Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, MindFreak said: Denmark has now closed the boarders. Only people with a real purpose (living or working in Denmark) may enter the country. And cargo trucks with food and other goods may of course enter. I think this is the best move for the time being. Cancel all flights for a month and get the situation under control before deciding on the next step. I'm hoping Latvia closes the border soon. We still have flights going to and from Western Europe, which seems crazy given how much it's blowing up over there.
Pestneb Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 I do think the media have focused too much on the virus and have inflated things a bit. I don't bother reading the news any more because it's all about this virus.Yes it's not a nice one, but tbh personally with my household I'm more concerned by measles than coronavirus. It's not new but there are enough idiots exposing us all to that one's threat. With this coronavirus there's little we can do aside from being careful to clean our hands and isolate ourselves if we get ill, but with measles there are vaccines already out there. I don't know that countries fully isolating themselves is really feasible either, not long term. With supply chains we are to reliant on imports for food alone, let alone anything else. I also heard they are hoping to effectively allow controlled infection of the low risk community to help provide a sort of herd immunity to those at risk. something like 60% of the population need to be infected (and presumably survive) in order to get a reasonable herd immunity and slow the spread. That's based on an assumption that this thing will hang around and be a seasonal bug, like the flu is.
Dog-amoto Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 Not holding out much hope from steak and blowjob day tomorrow 1
Nicktendo Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Pestneb said: I do think the media have focused too much on the virus and have inflated things a bit. I don't bother reading the news any more because it's all about this virus.Yes it's not a nice one, but tbh personally with my household I'm more concerned by measles than coronavirus. It's not new but there are enough idiots exposing us all to that one's threat. With this coronavirus there's little we can do aside from being careful to clean our hands and isolate ourselves if we get ill, but with measles there are vaccines already out there. I don't know that countries fully isolating themselves is really feasible either, not long term. With supply chains we are to reliant on imports for food alone, let alone anything else. I also heard they are hoping to effectively allow controlled infection of the low risk community to help provide a sort of herd immunity to those at risk. something like 60% of the population need to be infected (and presumably survive) in order to get a reasonable herd immunity and slow the spread. That's based on an assumption that this thing will hang around and be a seasonal bug, like the flu is. It's not feasible long term. But if we don't want the old dying needlessly and our health services overrun, it's absolutely necessary for the next few weeks. China has a lot to answer for as far as I'm concerned. They tried to hide it, punished those who talked about it and only came forward when it was too late. If it was up to me, we would be cutting all economic ties with them and getting our production out of there as quickly as possible. It won't happen, but it should. They cannot be trusted and should be boycotted by all free and open economies. 2
Rummy Posted March 13, 2020 Posted March 13, 2020 Quote Gordon Brown: Our leaders are failing us The world’s citizens are being put at risk because of a lack of leadership, according to the former UK prime minister, Gordon Brown, writing today for the Guardian. Brown also called for much greater collaboration on a global scale to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, asking: 'Why is there, as yet, no internationally coordinated medical project – equivalent to the wartime Manhattan Project – mobilising all available global resources to discover a coronavirus vaccine and to fast-track a cure?' Brown also takes aim at a familiar opponent, populism, writing that the very idea of global collaboration – and the convening of what would be a “virtual” G20 – sits uneasily with what he describes as the “America first”, “China first”, “India first” and “Russia first” populist nationalism of recent years. Brown also takes aim at a familiar opponent, populism, writing that the very idea of global collaboration – and the convening of what would be a “virtual” G20 – sits uneasily with what he describes as the “America first”, “China first”, “India first” and “Russia first” populist nationalism of recent years. Has Gordon Brown just headbutted a nail through the entire fucking wall?
drahkon Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 Decided to not go to a party tonight, got met with "lol, so you're also a vicitm of all the panic and hysteria", "oh, look who just stays at home and won't be having fun". I left the group without a word and I'm not sure if I'd rather laugh or cry at people's ignorance. I've learned a lot about many people in my circle of acquantances these past few days...many of them have fallen victim to fake news. It's kind of sad to see... 2
Pestneb Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) absolutely, 18 hours ago, Nicktendo said: It's not feasible long term. But if we don't want the old dying needlessly and our health services overrun, it's absolutely necessary for the next few weeks. I don't know that a 100% lockdown would even serve the vulnerable particularly well. I do think more ought to be done. For example, the rationale seems to be trying to create natural herd immunity which... well... w/e. But they should be making allowances for at risk groups. Things like giving any of the workforce who are in the at risk demographic sick leave, with support for them and the companies they work with to support this. Maybe targetting them for at home online training to increase their value when they do get back to work for example, with financial aide to allow their company to get in contractors to fill any gaps and exceptional coronavirus sick leave or w/e. The out of work risk groups should be given advice and be set up to be able to self isolate to reduce (or remove?) the risk of them getting the virus. I hope (but assume it hasn't happened because I haven't heard anything about it) that at risk groups are being given support and advice from the authorities to help them to that end. 4 hours ago, drahkon said: Decided to not go to a party tonight, got met with "lol, so you're also a vicitm of all the panic and hysteria", "oh, look who just stays at home and won't be having fun". I left the group without a word and I'm not sure if I'd rather laugh or cry at people's ignorance. I've learned a lot about many people in my circle of acquantances these past few days...many of them have fallen victim to fake news. It's kind of sad to see... That's sad. I think most people are seeing the extreme responses - panic and denial, but most of us are in between the extremes. Tbh I think those people are in denial quite possibly because they are scared. From what I understand, no one on these boards seems to be in the risky demographics, but the disease is thoroughly unpleasant if you get symptoms. I'm taking it as d&v, so with those people mocking you.. they're probably not taking enough precautions and their response actually validates your decision. On the BBC there's a Dr saying it was a worse experience for her than childbirth, the description she gave sounded a bit like a very nasty flu, so quite frankly I thoroughly hope not to catch this! Or at least not to get anything more than the mildest of symptoms. I work in a school so quite frankly I would be pleased if schools were closed down soon. I do wonder if the government are trying to hold out on locking down too hard until the end of the spring term at the start of April (when parents will already be expecting to need to have childcare for kids) and then maybe if necessary extend beyond that? **edit** Just read this on the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51874084 seems coherent, hope things work out in anycase Edited March 14, 2020 by Pestneb
Nicktendo Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 (edited) Our borders are closing on Monday. Supermarkets and chemists will still be working. Shopping malls will be open for a limited number of hours and only let in a certain amount of people. Told to stay at home for all non-essential trips. I'm curious to see how this approach will compare with the U.K. in the long-run. My holiday to Berlin in May is most likely cancelled... more money for games though I feel it's a good move as the cases here have tripled in the last 2 days (though that's probably down to testing being more widespread). 15 confirmed cases in my city, which is just under 1 million. Still, feels weird now that it's confirmed. The panic buying started yesterday. Long life foods and toilet roll are gone from the shelves (I really don't get the latter). Supermarkets are promising the warehouses are full, so I'm going to go down to my local one tomorrow and get enough for a week. Even though goods are still freely moving in and out, I think this will show how self-sufficient EU nations are. I don't have a lot of hope for Latvia... Almost everything I buy in the Supermarket outside dairy (amazing), meat (high quality) and a few veg is imported. Edit: Forgot the beer. The local beer is some of the best in the world. Found it hard to concentrate on work yesterday and today, kept checking the news and NeoGaf. Think that's a bad idea. I should probably figure out some kind of regime for myself. On the upside, I have 6 weeks worth of AEW to watch, the new series of Better Call Saul and about 70 games in my Switch backlog. Expect more experimental bullshit in the podcast I should probably actually start using Ring-Fit as well...Let's get this party started! Edited March 14, 2020 by Nicktendo 1 2
Ashley Posted March 14, 2020 Posted March 14, 2020 First world problems but one thing I was looking forward to on this trip was the Galapagos and now Ecuador is closing its borders. Trying to decide what to do. The defeatist part of me thinks go back home, let this play out and then pick it up again after. I think in reality I'll just shift plans around. Unsure whether to go to America (as I think it's going to get worse there) or go to Australia/Japan and then come back later in the year/early next to do the Americas.
Beast Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) I can't believe how people are reacting. People are panic-buying to the extreme but then all they're doing is spreading it around even more by doing so because the infected can't get supplies in the first place. Nobody thinks of that. If the infected can't get supplies, they're spreading it around from place to place until they do find what they need. Yes, I think it's serious and we shouldn't take it lightly and I do think it'll be worse. I've always stocked up anyway but I don't suddenly buy everything in bulk. There was a woman in the queue yesterday morning, attempting to buy (and I shit you not... 😂) 60 bog rolls! Bitch, this ain't Resident bastard Evil. Corona don't affect you through diahorrea! Tinned food is getting stupid as well! Hell, even women's feminine hygiene products are empty as well. Also, I've forever bought hand sanitizer and I can't even get that, which royally pisses me off because I wonder what people were doing in the first place. Eww! Edited March 15, 2020 by Animal
drahkon Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Our university just cancelled everything (practical courses, lectures, exams, etc.) until mid. April. Germany will close its borders tomorrow morning. It really does feel like a round of Plague Inc., doesn't it...
Ashley Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 18 hours ago, Ashley said: First world problems but one thing I was looking forward to on this trip was the Galapagos and now Ecuador is closing its borders. Trying to decide what to do. The defeatist part of me thinks go back home, let this play out and then pick it up again after. I think in reality I'll just shift plans around. Unsure whether to go to America (as I think it's going to get worse there) or go to Australia/Japan and then come back later in the year/early next to do the Americas. Not even been 24 hours and this has already changed. Argentina is apparently thinking of doing a 10 day lockdown (believe they're deciding that today). FCO has advised citizens to return. My mom phoned them up earlier to ask if that applies to travellers as well (I could understand saying to holiday-goers "return now while you can") and if I could just get an airbnb here until the end of April and see what happens. They said they can't make that decision for me, but should consider the fact nobody knows how long this will go on for, what will change etc and need to consider what if I need healthcare in Argentina. She's going to ring my insurance company in the morning to see what my options are. I've also asked her to see if I choose to stay would this be seen as ignoring the FCO's advice (which is advising to return, but not enforcing it) and thus invalidating my insurance. If its not then I need to decide between staying in Buenos Aires until the end of April and reassessing then or going home and then doing this thing again later on. Although lord knows when that'll be. I'd rather be in BA than home (the shelves aren't empty here and the wine is much cheaper), but I don't know right now. I'm worried that even if I stay here and it passes I'm constantly going to be disrupted by some change, even on a day-to-day basis. I would return to my mother's in the first instance (well, I'd self isolate wherever I land for 2 weeks as I'll have a greater chance of catching it when flying). If its only a short time then I'd stay at hers but I know I'd start going stir crazy and may need to find some short-term thing back in London until...whenever.
Julius Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 It's going to be much, much worse than that when you realise that there aren't even 10% the number of beds for the predicted number of hospitalised patients. Surely they're going to pivot, right? I half feel like not going into work, but of course I will (for now); the government being irresponsible is one thing, but my employer being irresponsible is a whole other level of nonsense. Our mandatory two week core leave for auditing got removed, effective immediately, on Friday - many of the managers didn't even know that change was taking place. I think it's a safe bet that they've done that to nudge people towards using their annual leave vs sick leave. 1
Pestneb Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, Julius said: It's going to be much, much worse than that when you realise that there aren't even 10% the number of beds for the predicted number of hospitalised patients. Surely they're going to pivot, right? I half feel like not going into work, but of course I will (for now); the government being irresponsible is one thing, but my employer being irresponsible is a whole other level of nonsense. Our mandatory two week core leave for auditing got removed, effective immediately, on Friday - many of the managers didn't even know that change was taking place. I think it's a safe bet that they've done that to nudge people towards using their annual leave vs sick leave. Nice to see the implications in hard numbers - even if they are only projections. Remember with your 10% beds point, that is going to be spread over a period of time. bearing in mind that the peak is predicted in 14 weeks, so about 2.8 million over that period of 14 weeks would be averaging out at about 200k/week average being hospitalised. I don't know how long the typical illness lasts before being sent home or sadly succumbing, but if it fits into a 2/2.5 week range on average, the numbers would stack up. Obviously at the peak there will likely be significantly more people but that is in 14 weeks and hopefully hospitals will be able to prepare in the mean time. There will also at that stage quite likely be a % of staff who have had the virus, being front line I imagine it is likely a higher % of infections amongst NHS staff is likely, it is also reasonable to assume a peak arriving prematurely ahead of the general populace (who at that stage will hopefully be limitiing their own chances of getting infected). That would be very handy in having immune staff able to operate without concern for themselves getting infected. But I imagine a few weeks prior to the peak infection point will be stretching the NHS the hardest, with staff shortages etc. Just found out today that my Uncle who's in France has a bug, unsure if it is corona virus but his symptoms make it a good possibility. My grandmother is living with them at the moment, and tbh is the biggest concern I have right now. Going forward, got another elderly relative living in the same house as a nurse, he's got a bunch of issues so quite concerned for him too, obv. she's got a good chance of catching the virus and bringing it home. Will be lovely when this thing has gone away. From a purely scientific point of view, it will be interesting to compare in the long term how this pans out - will the UK government response turn out being in fact better and give us an advantage next year (should this become seasonal) or will it back fire?
killthenet Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 The government will have to change their plans at some point, surely. It is entirely untenable to carry on with the wait and see approach. They saw that it crippled China as far back as January, they've had plenty of time to plan ahead and work out the best strategy but they just seem to be flying by the seat of their pants, only acting when the outlook changes. Personally I'm not too worried yet but as someone who practically lives on pasta as it is I am concerned about not being able to get any when I run out. I live with my parents too and we've only got a few loo rolls left, we're being economical with it but it still won't last us long - I'm hoping the shops rationing stock will enable those that need basic items to buy them without searching every shop in town. The thing I'm worried about most is my Granny, she is 91 and in a hospital ward at the moment. She's going to feel so lonely and down if the country institutes a full lock down - not having any visitors for a couple of weeks will be so detrimental to her mental health.
Pestneb Posted March 15, 2020 Posted March 15, 2020 I think the governments plans are to adapt as the situation changes.They've published the 3 steps, with the third being the most drastic and realistically being difficult to maintain more than for a short period. iirc cases are expected to pick up around the second week of April, which falls in the end of term holidays for schools. The peak is expected around the summer equinox, when they are hoping conditions will be unfavourable for transmission and other strains on the NHS are lower. They're then hoping herd immunity will keep the virus from being a huge problem next winter. Other countries not entertaining this possibility may well be because Italy, Spain, France, Germany are all deeper into the progression of things, and are unlikely to be able to manage the disease like this. Their peaks would all likely appear sooner and so they need to hit the brakes hard now to avoid a large peak in the cool late winter/early spring months. One thing is that everyone is assuming this virus will calm over the summer months - lets hope so!
Will Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 The UK plan is an interesting one. I guess the thinking is that the people who will most likely catch it in this situation will be healthy enough to beat it without hospitalisation and once they're immune, the disease can't spread any further. Essentially let the virus burn out quickly. I guess it could work, but if it gets out of hand and they can't control it then there could be real trouble. 3 hours ago, Pestneb said: One thing is that everyone is assuming this virus will calm over the summer months - lets hope so! Over here we're being hit just as much as anywhere else, and it's hotter than it will get during the European summer. I'm no scientist, but it really doesn't seem likely it is viable to survive to the summer, and the virus will go away. @Ashley - sounds like you have some interesting decisions ahead. For what it's work everyone I know that has been travelling during this thing has been covered by insurance. From what I understand it hasn't hit South America yet - is that right? If so expect all the panic buying madness to come when it does - that's been the case everywhere else in the world. If you're willing to risk it you might be able to get a lot of cheap travel while this thing is going on. Over here, I'm on my first day of working from home. Kind of feels a little late, this thing has been going on for months over here.
Julius Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 47 minutes ago, will' said: The UK plan is an interesting one. I guess the thinking is that the people who will most likely catch it in this situation will be healthy enough to beat it without hospitalisation and once they're immune, the disease can't spread any further. Essentially let the virus burn out quickly. I guess it could work, but if it gets out of hand and they can't control it then there could be real trouble. This works great for vaccines, but I'm not sure that testing it on the fly with an infectious viral disease that we still know very little about is the greatest idea (i.e. are there any long-term effects to having the disease, even if it doesn't reach pneumonia and potentially scar your lungs, etc.?). Plus, with it being a virus, we're bound to see more than one strain - I think we've already seen a few different strains worldwide. If we build immunity up with a hypothetical herd immunity to just one of them, then that would be great, but in the long term? We're seeing people get reinfected already, and it's still unclear if that's due to them getting another strain. Just like with the flu, where we have been seeing two or more separate strains on an increasingly regular basis over the past few flu seasons, which is making immunisation a) practically useless - even on the very, very slim chance that you predict the correct strain for the start of that particular flu season, many will still likely get the flu due to there being another strain, and, much more importantly, b) you're much more likely to be hit in a severe way if you end up suffering through two or more strains of the same illness. It's an odd one, but the thing is, you can be immune to something and still be a carrier, which almost makes the whole thing entirety redundant. It's one thing to do this with the common cold, or the flu, or as I mentioned before anything which you can be vaccinated for (because that's the best way that it works in practice currently), but to test out herd immunity on an entire nation because you think that people will stop adhering to a lockdown at the height of a pandemic because they're tired of it? And to ignore the advice from behavioural scientists that there's virtually little-to-no testing done on a scenario such as this, but with them thinking that it likely wouldn't pan out that way? I don't know, it's barmy. The way I see it, if herd immunity was going to work, then other countries would be jumping on board, and we wouldn't be seeing thousands of deaths worldwide. Even if we just take the elderly and immunocompromised, you're still going to see a lot of deaths associated with those vulnerable groups - most likely more - in the UK as part of this herd immunity rubbish. It's this sort of stubborn nonsense which is allowing big companies in the UK to turn a blind eye to the problem, and I'm sorry, but effectively saying to carry on as we have been - but be cleaner and stay away from the elderly - isn't going to change much when we know full well that there are likely thousands already infected in England alone. Birmingham streets were bustling, pubs and restaurants were packed, and so were the trains on Friday night when I was heading home from work. There's an air of arrogance which this apathy from the government is allowing to fester which is only going to go one way. It's going to be an interesting few weeks either way, but unless drastic action is taken soon, it's going to get much, much worse before it even begins to look like it'll get better over here. 1
Will Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I agree, it does seem totally crazy to go at it like this, especially with long-term effects unknown. The problem is until a cure/vaccine is found there is also an unknown on how long this is going to go on for. I guess there are two viable strategies: Get everyone to catch it, have a short period of no productivity and move on Contain it, have a long period of low productivity but not so much as to cause an issue The problem is if you fall in the middle of that and have just enough people catch it to bring you below a viable threshold of productivity but because of some control measures it continues for a long period of time. 43 minutes ago, Julius said: Birmingham streets were bustling, pubs and restaurants were packed, and so were the trains on Friday night when I was heading home from work. Singapore is exactly the same. The government is definitely doing more to contain it, though that's far easier here than it is there, at the end of the day, people want to live their lives. I'd say it's been going on for almost two months here now. If it wasn't on the news I don't think I would even know apart from the temperature checks at offices and malls. If it's controlled to the same extent in bigger countries like the UK it will be going on for the rest of the year. I'm not sure how viable that is if business is grinding to a halt.
Rummy Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ Great bit of visual modelling here imo. Also seen that youtube guy with the water bottle/flow thing Ill post that up at some point too. 2
Will Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 57 minutes ago, Rummy said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ Great bit of visual modelling here imo. Also seen that youtube guy with the water bottle/flow thing Ill post that up at some point too. That's really good! Seems to me you want to be somewhere in the middle on the actions taken. Too little and the thing just goes crazy, too much and you spend too long in the compromised position. Hitting that middle part properly is the real trick - I'm glad I don't have to handle anything important like this. 1
Ganepark32 Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 I got my first experience of all the panic surrounding this at the weekend when I went to the shops to pick up a few every day essentials, like bread and toilet paper and soya/coconut milk. Shelves bare and people squabbling over what was left, not a single package of pasta anywhere to be seen and people buying bottled water as if the end of the world was fast approaching. This is all while people are walking about coughing without covering their mouths thus causing more bother. As I say, I was lucky that I only needed a few things as I'd done my normal big shop for dinners and stuff the week prior but even trying to get the small bits was ridiculous. I understand the psychology of people panic buying (it's the least they can do to feel as though they have some semblance of control over the unknown) but the sheer amount people are buying of certain items is getting ridiculous and then fighting over tinned food just takes the biscuit. I've not changed anything I'm doing other than just being a bit more cautious and not going out as often. I already wash my hands regularly because it's just what you're supposed to do, especially if you go out and get on public transport as I do. Does beg the question of what were people doing before hand with the panic buying of hand soaps and anti-bacterial hand gels (which won't work anyway as its viral, thank god my partner works in care and has access to that for us). I had a message from my doctors late on Friday telling me that the daily drop on sessions they do in the mornings are being cancelled from today until further notice, which I'm sure will go down well with everyone up here. Got to phone and speak to a doctor to see whether you need to have an appointment or not which is reasonable but I live in Dundee and they're not exactly the understanding type up here. The lack of appointments does have a knock on effect for me though. While I'm not panicking about the virus, I do have an underlying health condition (don't know what it is because both my GP and the hospital stopped caring after a gastroscopy came back negative for stomach ulcers and PPIs don't help with the nausea/cramps and other symptoms but I get shortness of breath frequently so that concerns me in then long run with this) and take medication on repeat prescription that ends this month and I'd need an appointment for reassessment after that but it would be considered a non-essential thing so a bit worried there. Like others, though, it's my parents I'm worried about the most as both have health problems, my dad especially as he's on various heavy medications (statins and such for his blood and liver and intestines). They're fine at the moment but given how things are likely to pan out from here, I do worry for them. Not going to be a good couple of months riding out this, if it lasts a couple of months as I don't have much faith in the government's plans.
Ashley Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 @will' it hasn't hit SA much so far, but I think they're trying to get ahead of it. Plus they're expecting it to get worse as they head into Autumn/Winter. Funny you should mention insurance, my mum called mind this morning and it doesn't cover pandemics. So whatever I do, I'm doing it out of my pocket. Need to make a decision today on whether I'm staying and hoping it passes or returning to the UK.
Happenstance Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) Good twitter thread explaining the UK's plan and how it works (make sure you click in and read all the points). They really should have had this guy explain it! Edited March 16, 2020 by Happenstance
Ashley Posted March 16, 2020 Posted March 16, 2020 My problem with that plan though is people don't necessarily show symptoms, so how are they to know if they've been infected and are now immune? With testing only being done in extreme cases we could end up with a large percentage of people (mainly young it seems) that are uncertain if they're okay or not and this may then lead to them infecting others at risk. Like in my example, if I return home and I get it (or I get ill and assume that's it) then I'll know I can go and help my nan while she apparently has to isolate for four months. But what if I get it and don't show any symptoms, I'll just have to not see her working on the assumption I might be infectious without realising. I know test kit availability is limited but it just feels like that's making things worse. Someone could have a common cold and think it's that, go out afterwards and get this and infect others. Cynical part of me feels like the very limited testing is a way of cooking the books (definitely feels that way in America).
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