Serebii Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 While it's about time Nintendo posted a realistic sales forecast for Wii U, 3.6 million suggests to me that we're not getting any blockbusters in the next year and that they don't expect Smash Bros. and MK8 to majorly drive sales. It really does look like it'll do worse than Gamecube, way worse. How much longer can they continue to struggle with Wii U? Christmas 2015 would be optimistic. Nintendo aren't going to drop it until they have a successor ready that has support, so it will go on for as long as that. Simple as that.
Daft Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 (edited) Xbox One hasn't beaten it, and software wise, both PS4 and Xbox One are in dire droughts. What people are missing here is context. The reason for the massively high net loss and operating loss is due to the one-time injection of 25bn yen into R&D and Marketing in Q4 of the fiscal year. We knew this ahead of time. If it wasn't for that, the company would have been back in Net Profit for the second year in a row, and the operating income would have had improvement. And, the loss in their cash reserves is almost entirely down to the buyback of Yamauchi family shares, which was necessary. Spout doom and crap all you want, but use your heads and include the context. The low Wii U sales should be the focus here, NOT the amount of money made. That number is catastrophic. "both PS4 and Xbox One are in dire droughts" What does that even mean? That there is a software drought? Because Infamous/Titanfall came out last month and Watchdogs is out this month.... In fact, it hasn't been bad at all. EDIT: Here's a clearer/updated version of the list I posted. Or are you talking about attach rates being poor? Because if it's than then can you provide some kind of...I don't know, evidence? Really shouldn't have to ask constantly. Edited May 7, 2014 by Daft
liger05 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Nintendo aren't going to drop it until they have a successor ready that has support, so it will go on for as long as that. Simple as that. Nintendo dont have to announce they have dropped it. The console can still be on shelves but the actual software support is where I think we will see that Nintendo have 'dropped' the console. I'm not expecting much games from 2015 onwards and I dont blame them as the console cant be saved.
Wii Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Nintendo aren't going to drop it until they have a successor ready that has support, so it will go on for as long as that. Simple as that. It's not that simple. Who's going to be selling the Wii U in say even a years time?
liger05 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 It's not that simple. Who's going to be selling the Wii U in say even a years time? Well yes if retailers drop it then thats a different scenario completly but I expect smash and Mario Kart will be enough to keep it on shelves. I hope all the money sunk into R&D would mean next time around Nintendo release the right product but really not convinced it will with Iwata and co @ the helm. These guys are so out of touch its unreal.
Kaepora_Gaebora Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 On a different note, Titanfall sold 925,000 in US during March, figures for physical Xbox One and PC versions. Good numbers for a new IP, potentially hit 1 million already with another months sales. http://www.totalxbox.com/76043/titanfall-sells-925000-physical-copies-in-the-us-during-march/
liger05 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 On a different note, Titanfall sold 925,000 in US during March, figures for physical Xbox One and PC versions. Good numbers for a new IP, potentially hit 1 million already with another months sales. http://www.totalxbox.com/76043/titanfall-sells-925000-physical-copies-in-the-us-during-march/ Yes and not why some on gaf try and spin it as disappointing. The attach rate on the XB1 is very high.
Kaepora_Gaebora Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Yes and not why some on gaf try and spin it as disappointing. The attach rate on the XB1 is very high. Disappointing?! It's not GTA/ COD figures but still very decent, I'm actually surprised they haven't made more of this with press releases etc, as I say new IP selling this well is a healthy sign for the industry.
liger05 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Disappointing?! It's not GTA/ COD figures but still very decent, I'm actually surprised they haven't made more of this with press releases etc, as I say new IP selling this well is a healthy sign for the industry. Well I think for MS the negative is it didnt shift console like many predicted.
Ashley Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 (edited) Regarding this notion that the other consoles have a "serious drought" (or whatever term we're using now) I've just checked the Wikipedia game release pages for the Wii U, PS4 and Xbox One. Looking at games released across each of the platforms (in Europe) until the end of April 2014 we have the following: Wii U 187 PS4 59 Xbox One 42 So in 30% of the time since launch (5 months for PS4/One compared to Wii U's 17 months) the PS4 has 32% of the Wii U's LTD software titles, while the One has 22%. If you look at the first five months of launch (so Nov 2012-April 2013 for Wii U, Nov 2013 - April 2014 for the others) we get the following: Wii U 49 PS4 59 Xbox One 42 Now I'm aware there is a small margin of error here (the consoles released in the same months, but at slightly different times, chances of Wiki problems) but I think if you look at the numbers, the consoles are in line with each other. No particular console has any more of a (edit - launch) drought that any other particular console. The numbers between them are negligible. So, hopefully that will help pepper this conversation with some actual figures rather than some vague notions plucked from the air. And I have the Excel file if anyone really wants it. Edited May 7, 2014 by Ashley
Dcubed Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Everything here is more or less as expected, no real surprises... save for a couple... Mostly I'm surprised at the fact that the forecast for Wii U actually looks realistic (which indicates that Nintendo doesn't have much faith in the ability of their Wii U lineup to spur sales... Which makes me doubtful that we'll be seeing much from them this E3 that's coming this year)... ... but I'm also surprised at the somewhat bullish looking 3DS forecast. They're not predicting much of a drop from last year, hmm...) The low 3DS shipments during Q4 also show that they stuffed the retail channels hard during the Xmas season. Also their R&D spend is also set to increase quite a bit over the next year too (while their advertising budget continues to flounder...)
Blade Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Exactly. Not only that, but if he's going to down the 'software was better' route, it really wasn't. In the same time period that the PS4 has been out, the Wii U's best new game offerings were Nintendoland and NSMBU. And maybe ZombiU. Hardly amazing, really. Come on Sheikah. All personal opinion .
Charlie Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Why are people even mentioned the word 'drought' without the word 'summer' before it? Doesn't this happen ever single year? Games dry up a little bit in the summer and then come September lots of top titles come out.
Clownferret Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Regarding this notion that the other consoles have a "serious drought" (or whatever term we're using now) I've just checked the Wikipedia game release pages for the Wii U, PS4 and Xbox One. Looking at games released across each of the platforms (in Europe) until the end of April 2014 we have the following: Wii U 187 PS4 59 Xbox One 42 So in 30% of the time since launch (5 months for PS4/One compared to Wii U's 17 months) the PS4 has 32% of the Wii U's LTD software titles, while the One has 22%. If you look at the first five months of launch (so Nov 2012-April 2013 for Wii U, Nov 2013 - April 2014 for the others) we get the following: Wii U 49 PS4 59 Xbox One 42 Now I'm aware there is a small margin of error here (the consoles released in the same months, but at slightly different times, chances of Wiki problems) but I think if you look at the numbers, the consoles are in line with each other. No particular console has any more of a (edit - launch) drought that any other particular console. The numbers between them are negligible. So, hopefully that will help pepper this conversation with some actual figures rather than some vague notions plucked from the air. And I have the Excel file if anyone really wants it. just wanted to say fair play mate. I know I've been critical of you in the past for condoning and or feeding the anti Nintendo/pro Sony vibe on here but that's a great post right there. The thing for me looking at those numbers and also the list of games that were posted above and it becomes quite apparent that this gen is very much the gen of sequels. The lists for all companies is littered with FIFA, COD, AC, NFS, Just Dance, Skylanders, Lego etc. There is very little in the way of new games. If you were to assume that the majority of new gen console owners are upgrading from last gen so, Wii-WiiU, PS3-PS4 & 360-XB1, then I would say that Wii U owners have had the best transistion, the graphical leap from Wii-Wii U is far greater than from PS3-PS4 or 360-XB1 and the gamepad, whether you love it or hate it does offer a lot more options.
Rummy Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Nintendo aren't going to drop it until they have a successor ready that has support, so it will go on for as long as that. Simple as that. And that's going to come from where, exactly? Serebii isn't ever wrong, and I can't see how they can get support either from consumers or developers/publishers unless they clean their act up and turn the Wii U right around, so I guess it's Goodbye Nintendo.
Charlie Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 If you were to assume that the majority of new gen console owners are upgrading from last gen so, Wii-WiiU, PS3-PS4 & 360-XB1, then I would say that Wii U owners have had the best transistion, the graphical leap from Wii-Wii U is far greater than from PS3-PS4 or 360-XB1 and the gamepad, whether you love it or hate it does offer a lot more options. That's only because the graphics on the original Wii were so poor because it wasn't HD.
Wii Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 That's only because the graphics on the original Wii were so poor because it wasn't HD. That and Wii was a Gamecube v1.2.
Clownferret Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 That's only because the graphics on the original Wii were so poor because it wasn't HD. indeed, that's why the upgrade is more worthwhile. The difference between FIFA and COD on Wii & Wii U is vast, whereas on PS4 and XB1 it's neglible.
Goron_3 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 just wanted to say fair play mate. I know I've been critical of you in the past for condoning and or feeding the anti Nintendo/pro Sony vibe on here but that's a great post right there. The thing for me looking at those numbers and also the list of games that were posted above and it becomes quite apparent that this gen is very much the gen of sequels. The lists for all companies is littered with FIFA, COD, AC, NFS, Just Dance, Skylanders, Lego etc. There is very little in the way of new games. If you were to assume that the majority of new gen console owners are upgrading from last gen so, Wii-WiiU, PS3-PS4 & 360-XB1, then I would say that Wii U owners have had the best transistion, the graphical leap from Wii-Wii U is far greater than from PS3-PS4 or 360-XB1 and the gamepad, whether you love it or hate it does offer a lot more options. That's because those are 3rd party franchises which can easily be ported across generations. It's nothing new; PS3-360 had HD versions of their predecessors and even the Sega Genesis had games that the Game Gear and Master System had. The PS2 and Gamecube had 3rd party games that were sequels to PS1 games too. It definitely won't be about sequels (well, maybe for Nintendo, but we all know they bet on the wrong horse). For Sony and Microsoft, it's about developing new I.P and new engines to show off their hardware. You might see franchises reappearing, like how Nintendo re-use their franchises, but Sony in particularly have always been a good ambassador for developing new franchises. Trust me, the development teams already can't wait to drop 360/PS3 'down-ports' so they can focus solely on new content. EA have already said they will be bring 6 new I.P to E3..I expect similar from other developers.
Debug Mode Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 Unless there's another big surprise due for 3DS (I'm not thoroughly convinced that the new Pokemon games themselves will up the hardware count), there's surely a revision coming. Japan never got and never will get the 2DS, and their sales have slumped even before the tax increase.
Grazza Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 It wouldn't bother me if Smash Bros was the only big Wii U game this year, or that Nintendo didn't expect it to sell. What bothers me is that there might be no more big games planned for Wii U. If they were planning to show anything exciting at E3 - Metroid, Zelda etc - you'd think they'd expect the announcements to sell consoles. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if there is no Wii U Zelda and they just do a "Twilight Princess" with it. If no future Wii U games utilise the GamePad, that's fine, but at least release them (and make it so they will run on the next system).
Sheikah Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 indeed, that's why the upgrade is more worthwhile. The difference between FIFA and COD on Wii & Wii U is vast, whereas on PS4 and XB1 it's neglible. Doesn't really matter that the upgrade is more noticeable if the upgrade is still a generation behind. Also...Wii FIFA to to Wii U FIFA? Wii FIFA to PS4 FIFA would be much more noticeable, silly. :p
Goron_3 Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 It wouldn't bother me if Smash Bros was the only big Wii U game this year, or that Nintendo didn't expect it to sell. What bothers me is that there might be no more big games planned for Wii U. If they were planning to show anything exciting at E3 - Metroid, Zelda etc - you'd think they'd expect the announcements to sell consoles. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if there is no Wii U Zelda and they just do a "Twilight Princess" with it. If no future Wii U games utilise the GamePad, that's fine, but at least release them (and make it so they will run on the next system). On the contrary, I think they'll continue pushing Wii U game development. Whilst the Wii U isn't selling well, there is a lot of money for them to make on software and that's where the real money is. There's a lot of titles already that have sold more than a million or two, and they'll know that they can make some serious money of current Wii U owners. I think they'll keep supporting it until Christmas 2015 at the earliest, at which point some teams will move to newer hardware.
Daft Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 indeed, that's why the upgrade is more worthwhile. The difference between FIFA and COD on Wii & Wii U is vast, whereas on PS4 and XB1 it's neglible. Literally the worst games you could compare between generations.
Fierce_LiNk Posted May 7, 2014 Posted May 7, 2014 indeed, that's why the upgrade is more worthwhile. The difference between FIFA and COD on Wii & Wii U is vast, whereas on PS4 and XB1 it's neglible. Do you mean that one solitary FIFA game that will be appearing on Wii U? Your comparisons don't work. Yes, I understand what you mean when you say that the difference between a Wii and Wii U is greater than PS3 to PS4 or 360 to One. You might be right. But, the Wii U isn't on that much of a greater level than the PS3/360 to begin with, if any. So, whilst the difference may be great, it's still going to be behind the PS4/One anyway... You buy a games console because you want it to be better than what you have currently, sure. But, you also expect it to somewhat compete with what's out there. You want the best console. Why wouldn't you? Nobody in their right mind would want to spend hundreds of pounds on a videogaming entertainment system and know that it can't compete with its competition.
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