Brexit - UK negotiates a deal

[Fierce_LiNk]

It has been 2 and a half years since the EU Referendum was held and there are now less than 79 days to go until we will be out of the European Union.

It has certainly been a rollercoaster ride during the last few years, with the result of the referendum and the fallout resulting in a very tumultuous time in British politics. 

For reference, I voted Remain and I have not seen anywhere near enough evidence to suggest that the decision to leave the EU will result in the UK being in a better position than it is currently, in a multitude of ways. I feel that the country has effectively been on pause for this duration, with other important issues having to be brushed aside whilst the Government seems to be fumbling and struggling to come up with a solution of how to make this work. We've seen a Prime Minister resign (in what feels like such a long time ago, now), snap elections caused, a hung parliament, Brexit secretaries come and go, all the while whilst not one, but two national scandals are experienced in Grenfell and Windrush, with both dominating headlines but are now seemingly pushed aside with Brexit taking full focus.

It's been a while since we've discussed this on the forum, so it will be interesting to hear other people's views on this. In my opinion, the most important UK political event to happen in our lifetime. 

 

[sumo73]

My faith in politicians from across the political divide is quite low and my faith in decent political debate from the general public (regardless of how they voted and without name calling) is also quite low as well.

[bob]

It's something that has filled the news and conversations for so long, that it's hard to sum everything up into one post.

Basically, you can probably fit me into the Bored of Brexit category. I just want it to end now. If they end up cancelling it, great, we can finally move onto to more important things. If they go ahead with the deal, fine, most of it won't affect me anyway, and we'll just continue on as normal. If we end up with No Deal, well it'll certainly be interesting. 

I don't think we've ever had a group of such incompetent politicians all at once though, it's astonishing. 

[sumo73]

1 hour ago, bob said:

I don't think we've ever had a group of such incompetent politicians all at once though, it's astonishing. 

100% agree.

[Glen-i]

Honestly, the worst thing about all this is how this has been an incentive for some people to behave absolutely appallingly to others.

Human decency just flies out the window whenever the subject arises.

Did anyone here watch that Brexit drama on Channel 4 a few days ago? It was pretty good. I can't say I'm informed enough to know what parts were exaggerated or not, but it's safe to say that it's closer than it really should have been.

The last scene with that focus group was a little upsetting for me. Hit a bit too close to reality to not feel bad about the state of things.

Edited January 10, 2019 by Glen-i

[Kav]

I’ll not talk about the past couple years and how that’s gone, as we all know what a shit-show it’s been. I’ll just talk about how I could see things panning out from here and what my viewpoint on it all is.

 

So, May’s Deal. The meaningful vote on the Deal is the 15th, should it pass we leave on its terms on the 29th March.

However, it looks highly likely to fail. Following this, thanks to Dominic Grieve’s Amendment, May then has 3 sitting days to provide her “Plan B”, this would be Monday the 21st.

It’s widely expected that Labour will table a Vote of No Confidence in Government following the Deal failing to pass Parliament, whether they do it immediately or wait until after the deadline for her Plan B passes is yet to be known - one thing is for sure, they will need the DUP backing it for a No Confidence vote to pass.

Should a No Confidence vote fail, there’ll be a push for a “People’s Vote”, with Remain on the ballot. A possible ballot would be:

1. Remain

2. Leave - should you wish to leave, would you leave with; A. May’s Deal, or B. no deal.

I’m sure Parliament will try to ensure No Deal isn’t on the ballot but I believe the Government will push for it to be included.

 

Should the No Confidence vote succeed, May will have 14 days to try and get her Deal through Parliament but if it fails a General Election will be held.

This will give the Parties a renewed opportunity to adjust what they’ve offered over the past couple years. Given the Party’s stances on Brexit and the various factions within each Party, I’d imagine they’d pledge something along the lines of the below in their manifestos:

Tory: Vote on May’s Deal or No Deal

Labour: Vote on New Deal or Remain

Lib Dem: People’s Vote*

SNP: People’s Vote*

Green: Remain

UKIP: Leave with no Deal

*I believe a “People’s Vote” will be promised against whoever gets in Government, but with Remain on the ballot and No Deal off it.

 

Either way, it’s pretty much inevitable that Article 50 will be extended.

For a Referendum (People’s Vote), a minimum of 22 weeks is required, as cited here:

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/sites/constitution-unit/files/the_mechanics_of_a_further_referendum_on_brexit.pdf

Should an Election be called it does not require as much notice as a Referendum does to be held (only 17 working days, as linked) but Article 50 would still be extended for campaigning & any negotiations that would follow.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60646/election-rules-chapter6-draft_0.pdf

 

Many point out that the EU have said that this is the only Deal available and that there will be no further negotiations.

However, Guy Verhofstadt (Brexit Coordinator for EU Parliament) stated on the Marr show that this may change if there was a change in Government, as that would lead to “unknown territory” as a new Government’s Brexit position might change.

He’s also said how the EU would be happy to have a closer relationship than what May has arranged with her Deal, just last month:

 

Given all the above, I want a General Election. It’ll allow for a renewed take on Brexit, as well as dealing with many issues that are being completely ignored; the rises in homelessness, foodbank usage, poverty (including in-work poverty), issues with Universal Credit, NHS underfunding, austerity etc., the scandals as FLink pointed out; Grenfell & Windrush - 80% of Grenfell families still haven’t been rehoused, after having been told they would be within 3 weeks after the incident itself!

We need the Tories out, they’re callous and cruel policies are killing people, a People’s Vote alone won’t change that.

One thing to consider when talking about an Election vs People’s Vote is that there’s no majority for any form of Brexit in Parliament, so a People’s Vote is pretty much an eventuality... this is why a push for an Election gets my vote.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Kav

[Pestneb]

I just think it is sad.

Prior to May's re-election I was open minded. Post her being elected I was fairly pessimistic. For me the path isn't particularly interesting, but right now I see the UK becoming a lot like Italy (just not in the EU) or rejoining the EU and adopting the Euro in a few months/years/decade or so.

[Jonnas]

If you'll allow a brief foreign perspective: the way British politicians have been acting has been flabbergasting. At times, it feels like the concept of diplomacy and negotiation is completely foreign to them (and those are the only skills you'd ever expect any politician to have), and when they do get a grip, they decide to go full on Ad Hominem (Portuguese news aired a snippet of a debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, and it sounded like they spent more time attacking each other's character than discussing policy). Also, it sounds like the issues with the Irish border have been strangely ignored throughout the whole thing? That's the first thing I'd expect the UK (politicians and populace alike) to worry about.

On the other hand, European leaders seem open to the idea of cancelling Brexit altogether... but only as soon as the country's leadership decides it wants to do that.

[Nicktendo]

One of the best things about not living in the UK is not hearing about Brexit at all.

I was on the fence and didn't vote. Both campaigns were disgusting and neither was based on fact, though I could see advantages for remaining and leaving. 

The whole thing is a complete joke and the UK is a laughing stock around the world. I was back home last year for a couple of weeks and the atmosphere in the country has completely changed. If my family didn't live there I would quite happily never go back.

[Fierce_LiNk]

3 hours ago, Jonnas said:

If you'll allow a brief foreign perspective: the way British politicians have been acting has been flabbergasting. At times, it feels like the concept of diplomacy and negotiation is completely foreign to them (and those are the only skills you'd ever expect any politician to have), and when they do get a grip, they decide to go full on Ad Hominem (Portuguese news aired a snippet of a debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, and it sounded like they spent more time attacking each other's character than discussing policy). Also, it sounds like the issues with the Irish border have been strangely ignored throughout the whole thing? That's the first thing I'd expect the UK (politicians and populace alike) to worry about.

On the other hand, European leaders seem open to the idea of cancelling Brexit altogether... but only as soon as the country's leadership decides it wants to do that.

I'm quite interested to hear an outside perspective of Brexit, because it's hard to shake the feeling that we are coming off quite badly from this. It's always interesting going to Belgium to see @Eenuh's family and what their take on the situation is. The UK just don't seem to have a unified gameplan with how to approach such a divisive issue. The clock continues to tick and the solution doesn't seem to be within reach. We've literally spent 2 and a half years mucking around to negotiate worse than what we already have in this country, at least in my opinion.

The Irish border issue crops up every once in a while, then gets kicked to the sidelines for a while. Unfortunately...I imagine that the reason why it isn't being mentioned more (particularly from the English perspective...not necessarily Scotland or Wales) is because there seems to be a lack of interest in or, dare I say, care. Personally, I am worried about the Irish border situation, mostly because of the history of violence in the area, but there doesn't seem to be a solution to that or at least one isn't presented. 

We'll see what happens after the vote next week. My personal prediction is that I feel that the prospect of No Deal will be too much for many to stomach, so some form of deal will ultimately go through, at the very last minute. (by last minute, I mean before we leave, not Tuesday) A Theresa May + deal, or some form of rebranding of what she already has. 

 

[Pestneb]

I was last back in the UK 2017 december, I had an ok time there but was weird not having my own home. I'm not sure if it was the country had changed or just my perspective, being there as a tourist. I am feeling a lot less attached to the UK though, although that has more to do with a few gems Cameron/Clegg/May hatched a good while back than Brexit.

Right now I just hope things change for the better in the UK, I have family there and I would like at some point to be able to return home" from what effectively feels like "exile"

[Grazza]

4 minutes ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

The Irish border issue crops up every once in a while, then gets kicked to the sidelines for a while. Unfortunately...I imagine that the reason why it isn't being mentioned more (particularly from the English perspective...not necessarily Scotland or Wales) is because there seems to be a lack of interest in or, dare I say, care. Personally, I am worried about the Irish border situation, mostly because of the history of violence in the area, but there doesn't seem to be a solution to that or at least one isn't presented. 

 

Apart from staying in the Single Market and the Customs Union (Norway Plus), which is the way I think it's going to have to be.  It'd avoid any division between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.  Also, we wouldn't have to worry about lowering our food standards with chlorinated chicken etc.  From the Bank of England's forecasts for each option, if I recall correctly, it was by far the least damaging (apart from Remain) - we'd hardly be financially any worse off at all under Norway/EFTA.  It'd basically be paying a small amount of money to regain some sovereignty, which I believe is enough to sway those in the middle, and theoretically be exempt from ever-closer union, which, rightly or wrongly, I believe is people's main concern.

 

A hard Brexit or Theresa May's deal would just upset too much of the country, and there's no real proof the voters actually want that (or ever did).  I personally think, assuming Theresa May's deal is voted down, we're going to see a move towards EFTA, with either MPs putting that through, or a 2nd referendum which would ask voters Norway Plus or Remain.

[Fierce_LiNk]

17 hours ago, Grazza said:

 

Apart from staying in the Single Market and the Customs Union (Norway Plus), which is the way I think it's going to have to be.  It'd avoid any division between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.  Also, we wouldn't have to worry about lowering our food standards with chlorinated chicken etc.  From the Bank of England's forecasts for each option, if I recall correctly, it was by far the least damaging (apart from Remain) - we'd hardly be financially any worse off at all under Norway/EFTA.  It'd basically be paying a small amount of money to regain some sovereignty, which I believe is enough to sway those in the middle, and theoretically be exempt from ever-closer union, which, rightly or wrongly, I believe is people's main concern.

 

A hard Brexit or Theresa May's deal would just upset too much of the country, and there's no real proof the voters actually want that (or ever did).  I personally think, assuming Theresa May's deal is voted down, we're going to see a move towards EFTA, with either MPs putting that through, or a 2nd referendum which would ask voters Norway Plus or Remain.

Unless we see an extension to Article 50, I do think that it's very late in the day for May to start pursuing a Norway plus deal. From what she's been saying so far, she wants us out of the Single Market and Customs Union. Of course, it all may change once the deal gets voted down this week. I'm very uncomfortable with just how close the deadline is, yet a lack of a definitive plan being put in place. I've often heard of the "No Deal by accident" phrase being used, which is quite conceivable.

If we must leave the EU, I think an EFTA/Norway style of deal is the easiest one to stomach out of all of the available options. 

[Glen-i]

On 12/01/2019 at 6:08 PM, Jonnas said:

 (Portuguese news aired a snippet of a debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, and it sounded like they spent more time attacking each other's character than discussing policy).

You must have been watching something from Prime Minister's Questions. It's a weekly thing where various politicians get to ask the Prime Minister, well, questions.

On paper, it's an opportunity for the PM to demonstrate their plans for the future and all that.

In reality, it's pretty much a childish argument.

There's this humourous little YouTube series known as Politics Unboringed that does it's best to explain what the bloody hell goes on in the world of politics.

This episode from 2017 goes into detail about why PMQ's is the complete farce it is.

I recommend giving it a watch so you can get an idea why the UK is the utter omnishambles it is.

Edited January 13, 2019 by Glen-i

[Grazza]

6 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

Unless we see an extension to Article 50, I do think that it's very late in the day for May to start pursuing a Norway plus deal. From what she's been saying so far, she wants us out of the Single Market and Customs Union. Of course, it all may change once the deal gets voted down this week. I'm very uncomfortable with just how close the deadline is, yet a lack of a definitive plan being put in place. I've often heard of the "No Deal by accident" phrase being used, which is quite conceivable.

 

Oh yeah, I agree Article 50 will have to be extended or revoked.  A time limit is not helpful when you don't have a plan!  It seems to me Theresa May has engineered a situation where MPs feel pressured to accept her deal.  To paraphrase Michael Portillo on the last edition of This Week, when she threatened "My deal, no deal or no Brexit at all", half the people thought "I prefer No Deal" and the other half thought "I prefer no Brexit"!

 

By the way, to refer to what @Jonnas was saying, there's a fair amount of evidence that the two former Brexit secretaries were not allowed much autonomy at all, the implication being that it was all organised by London's and Brussels' civil servants, with the blessing of the PM - not really a "negotiation" at all.  The enduring mystery is whether Theresa May really wants this deal or it's an elaborate conspiracy to stop Brexit.

 

For what it's worth, I don't think there's much chance of No Deal at all.  If it came to that, too many Conservatives would put their country and belief in the EU ahead of their party and wrestle control away from the Prime Minister.  They could sway the balance, whereas Hard Brexiteers are too small a minority (I do acknowledge your point about it happening accidentally, but think there are too many plans to stop that happening).  Article 50 can still be revoked at the last minute.  The past week has also convinced me that Remainers are much more in control of the situation than Theresa May.  In my opinion, Remainers' worst outcome is Theresa May's deal actually being voted through on Tuesday.  Assuming it won't be, I genuinely think we'll be conditioned to accept Norway Plus, and once we've come round to that idea, probably persuaded to accept Remain.

[Jonnas]

2 hours ago, Glen-i said:

You must have been watching something from Prime Minister's Questions. It's a weekly thing where various politicians get to ask the Prime Minister, well, questions.

Ah, that might be it. I recall seeing May sitting in that precise spot. Though I'm not sure about the "Can't accuse another member of hypocrisy" rule, since the clip showed Theresa May deflecting Corbyn's question and then highlighting how he has changed his stance on Brexit negotiations a few times in the past. I guess that "changing stances with time" is not quite the same as hypocrisy, but the intent behind the comment was clear as day.

I get the feeling that PMQ promotes a grandstanding, point-scoring culture that was already there. It would take a lot of work to fix something like this.

[Fierce_LiNk]

On ‎13‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 10:00 PM, Grazza said:

For what it's worth, I don't think there's much chance of No Deal at all.  If it came to that, too many Conservatives would put their country and belief in the EU ahead of their party and wrestle control away from the Prime Minister.  They could sway the balance, whereas Hard Brexiteers are too small a minority (I do acknowledge your point about it happening accidentally, but think there are too many plans to stop that happening).  Article 50 can still be revoked at the last minute.  The past week has also convinced me that Remainers are much more in control of the situation than Theresa May.  In my opinion, Remainers' worst outcome is Theresa May's deal actually being voted through on Tuesday.  Assuming it won't be, I genuinely think we'll be conditioned to accept Norway Plus, and once we've come round to that idea, probably persuaded to accept Remain.

Isn't part of the argument that "Leave" on the ballot paper could also potentially have meant "Leave Everything" as in exit with No Deal? That's the problem when a referendum has such a weak question and very grey options. If this is the case, then did the public want "No Deal" or did they want a softer Brexit? It really displays how flawed a Referendum can be. (not setting a limit of, say, 60% of the vote (or a more definitive percentage (52-48 is not definitive) to become legally binding or something along those lines was also a mistake, imo) 

We'll see what happens tomorrow if/when the deal fails. I'm not going to be particularly upbeat about anything if Article 50 gets an extension because it doesn't necessarily mean that a plan will materialise from somewhere. I get the feeling that May will continue to push and push her deal until she gets some form of it through. I can just picture the rhetoric right now.

[Fierce_LiNk]

Thought that this was quite interesting:

 

 

 

[Grazza]

16 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

Isn't part of the argument that "Leave" on the ballot paper could also potentially have meant "Leave Everything" as in exit with No Deal? That's the problem when a referendum has such a weak question and very grey options. If this is the case, then did the public want "No Deal" or did they want a softer Brexit? It really displays how flawed a Referendum can be. (not setting a limit of, say, 60% of the vote (or a more definitive percentage (52-48 is not definitive) to become legally binding or something along those lines was also a mistake, imo) 

 

I don't agree it should have been 60%, but I do agree 52-48 is not definitive and (in my opinion) points to a soft Brexit.  There were always passionate Leavers and ardent Remainers, but I suspect they were a relative minority and the referendum was swayed by a huge number of people who could have been persuaded either way.  As a patriot, I just want the country to come together and try to see each other's point of view.  Remainers should respect that a huge number of Brits are not ready to submit their nation to a European superstate.  We voted to enter a Common Market, but there has undoubtedly been a political price, with subsequent treaties forcing ever-closer union.  The EU is a very clever power grab - arguably benign, but sneaky all the same.  We just do not know where it will go, or whether we'll be able to get out of it.

 

Leavers, for their part, should acknowledge that at least 48% of the population (and actually far, far more) are not willing to bankrupt the country for this.  Or lower food standards, for that matter, which would happen with the wrong people in government (I fear it would be a race to the bottom in many regards, with only the richest benefitting).  Brexit is putting more of a strain on the country than anything outside wartime, which is arguably unjustified.  The UK enjoys a comfortable position outside the Euro and outside Schengen.  Why rock the boat?  In my opinion it would be wise to plan for a hard Brexit in case we're ever forced in a direction we don't want to go, but there's a strong argument that it's just not worth it at the moment.

 

This is why I favour Norway Plus out of all the options, which is also being called Common Market 2.0.  Remain would be something of a submission, but I wouldn't be annoyed if that's what people genuinely want now, whereas a hard Brexit would be damaging for the reasons above.  My most preferred option of all is actually an AV referendum.  It's the only way of finding out which type of Brexit people actually want, or whether any one form of Brexit is more popular than Remain.  As bizarre as it sounds, even in 2016 with the exact same demographic and voting intentions, Remain may have been more popular than any specific form of Brexit.

 

The referendum would include (but not be limited to):

 

• Canada (or variation of)
• Norway (or variation of)
• Remain

 

It would take time to organise, no doubt, but we need to find out once and for all what the country really thinks.

[bob]

Hopefully, something is going to happen tonight, for better or worse! Grab the popcorn!

[sumo73]

5 hours ago, Grazza said:

We voted to enter a Common Market, but there has undoubtedly been a political price, with subsequent treaties forcing ever-closer union. 

I don't believe the general electorate ever directly voted on joining the EEC (now EU) although there was a public referendum held in 1975 (just two years after joining) on whether the UK should continue to stay in the EEC or not. It was PM Edward Health that pushed for EEC membership when he was came to power in 1970 and his government stopped short of holding any public referendum on joining. When the EEC became the EU in 1993 that would have been a better time to perhaps have held any vote, that might have stopped this mess that we have now.

Edited January 15, 2019 by sumo73

[Kav]

So May has finally asked for cross-Party support, having refused it since the result of the Referendum itself.

All the other Parties have said that they won’t talk unless No Deal is taken off the table, but May won’t budge.

Come Monday, May has to provide her Plan B to Parliament... should she not have one, as is being suggested, I’d expect another motion of No Confidence soon thereafter - possibly after “private” talks with the DUP to see if they’ll get onboard (which they might if there’s no movement on the Backstop).

EDIT:

This just in:

So the dates of next imagine we’ll be seeing any further motions of No Confidence will be after Monday and/or after 29/01.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Kav

[Agent Gibbs]

No deal should never have been an option, and frankly people on social media parroting sound bites they've taken in about just going no deal and reverting to WTO rules need to be silenced! People just seem to be utterly clueless about the effect of brexit, only yesterday i was talking about how i needed to remortgage before the end of the month and i wanted as long as fixed term as possible to avoid any fallout from Brexit and someone who voted asked me why it mattered.......Erm interest rates? bank of Egnland base rate and general house prices will affect your monthly repayments if you aren't on a fixed term! they were shocked to find out this!

I hate to admit this, but Brexit (and Trump) have kind of highlighted to me that there is no oversight on truth in elections/political campaigns, so they can easily outright lie and lead missinformed people to vote disaster on others....and as much as i hate to admit this, that there is an element of idiocy in voters that scares me, to the point i almost feel there should be limits on who can vote! I still have a couple who in are circle of friends (and we try hard to get over their choice given how long we've been friends) that stick by the straight banana nonsense, £350 million for the NHS and other nonsense brexit claims! They aren't stupid but it has made me question just how gullable they are and how scary it is that they are in the small majority

[Eenuh]

19 minutes ago, Agent Gibbs said:

No deal should never have been an option, and frankly people on social media parroting sound bites they've taken in about just going no deal and reverting to WTO rules need to be silenced! People just seem to be utterly clueless about the effect of brexit, only yesterday i was talking about how i needed to remortgage before the end of the month and i wanted as long as fixed term as possible to avoid any fallout from Brexit and someone who voted asked me why it mattered.......Erm interest rates? bank of Egnland base rate and general house prices will affect your monthly repayments if you aren't on a fixed term! they were shocked to find out this!

I went for a 5 year remortgage instead of a 2 year one only a few months ago, for exactly the same reasons. I do not trust the current climate and I expect things to get worse because of Brexit. The housing market has apparently been stagnating and slightly dropping recently because of all the insecurities surrounding Brexit. So at least my payments will be secure for the next few years...

I am also not sure what is going to happen with travel once we leave the EU on the 29th... I have booked a trip to Belgium in March, coming back to the UK on the 30th. I'm not sure if they will just let me back in or if I will need a visum or proof that I live in the UK as an EU national.

[Ashley]

On 09/01/2019 at 11:37 PM, Fierce_LiNk said:

it will be interesting to hear other people's views on this.