Ashley Posted September 8, 2016 Author Posted September 8, 2016 Let's talk a minute about "mobile gamers don't pay for anything" idea and just mobile gaming in general. Games such as Clash of Clans and Candy Crush attract 5-10 and 10-25 million users (1) a month. In comparison the best selling Wii U game is shy of 8 million, best selling 3DS shy of 15 million. It's only the Wii that comes close (83 if you count Wii Sports but its questionable and 37 for Mario Kart). Obviously the price is lower, significantly, but the market is definitely there. King's users spend 10 hours per month on their titles, Zynga around 6. (1) There are 112.8 million people (in a month) that play games on their phone accounting for 64% of mobile reach (1) The average user uses 5 different game apps per month (1) The amount of time spent on games outside of the top three performing apps (i.e. not Candy Crush) is 80%. In other words - time spent isn't dominated by a few big apps (unlike something like Photo where the top three apps count for 87% of time spent) (1) The top three apps in December 2015 each got over 15 million users that month The top 15 games are IAP or free but of those that do use IAPs the average US consumer in 2015 spent $87 on in app purchases (the average spend of PC and console gamers is $92) (2) (different reports do say differently though) Only 0.19% of users make in-app purchases, which is obviously very low but the number above shows that those that do, do so in bulk. (3) In 2015 around 60% of all money from mobile games came from paid for titles, with about 10% from advertising and the rest IAP. The expectation is for IAP and advertising to equate to 50% this year (4) iOS owners spend more on games and in-app purchases than Android owners (4). The Asian market is the biggest spending of mobile games (4). Many games, including some smaller ones with less users, have dedicated players - with the 8th best selling game still getting over 6 hours of gameplay from its users per month (1) and numerous games having average session duration of over 10 minutes (1) - this may sound low compared to consoles but mobile usage is obviously intrinsically different and more brief. Cash of Clans has 8 million monthly users with a 'stickiness' of just under 40%. That's 3.2 million users. That is the lowest 'sticky' game from the list provided in the report, with the most being Words with Friends (15 million monthly users with just over 50% of them sticking around) (1) The market is undeniably different, it is designed to be different - different play styles, different play lengths, different engagement and different price points. However, there is money to be made from mobile gaming and Nintendo is in a strong position to be able to do so. Let's face it, SMR is re-using most of its assets so there will be little initial cost. A price of a few quid (I could see this going for £2.99) will still see them getting a profit and more importantly getting exposure. Let's not pretend the Wii U and 3DS is getting them much general public exposure presently. This could well be their own Pokémon Go - something that ignites that nostalgia in people and gets people talking about Mario again. And just in time for the NX... it may be less than 1% of people who buy SMR end up getting any kind of Nintendo console, but as we've seen mobile games attract much bigger audiences than console games (and more diverse ones too). Some estimations put Pokémon Go's daily users at around 9.5 million (5) at one point. Unlike PG and Miitomo (both of which have suffered a drop off) I get the feeling (but this is objective) that SMR isn't supposed to be a long-haul game. It's supposed to be played for a while. There will be an audience that really dig at it, but if Nintendo can get several million players trying it, even just for an hour or so, it will provide a ROI that could be hugely beneficial. That ultimately is the best thing they could use mobile for - not to replace their existing output or to try and chase after IAP (it's nice and if they can find the right game to do so they should) but a low output, highly recognised titles that act as marketing tools. Look at some of the top games in the Play Store (as Apple doesn't let you shop the App Store online without iTunes AFAIK). Fallout, KSI (urgh), Disney, Sonic, Despicable Me etc etc. For big companies mobile games are essentially interactive adverts. If you do it well you spend little but you get a lot of people noticing it. This in turn can potentially lead to greater sales in their other products. 1) http://www.vertoanalytics.com/verto-app-report/ 2) http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/269618/The_average_US_paying_mobile_game_player_spent_87_on_F2P_IAP_last_year.php 3) http://thenextweb.com/insider/2016/03/23/free-to-play-games-are-not-the-way-forward-for-mobile-gaming/#gref 4) http://www.alistdaily.com/digital/apple-users-spend-twice-mobile-games-than-android/ 5) http://www.recode.net/2016/7/13/12181614/pokemon-go-number-active-users
Falcon_BlizZACK Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Pokemon GO is shallow. And it still makes me physically ill thinking about it.And all the success in the world isn't going to change that. Looking at that GIF in the first post, is Mario automatically hurdling up small slopes? I don't understand your 'lament'. If Nintendo doesn't try to acknowledge and adapt to the new gaming environment then it will soon be due for extinction. Besides, Nintendo are still creating the standard classics that you love ("the-oh-so-non-shallow" Pokémon game that's remained the same for 2 decades and the same old Mario experience - that featured the SAME backgrounds and style - for the last two generations or so...)
Cube Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 The game will be on Android, just at a later date.
Serebii Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Me, from 2014. Well, you've certainly changed your tune. You, from 2014, when asked if you would buy a Nintendo smartphone game. Well, as I said yesterday Nintendo on mobile is like eating a tub of Ben & Jerry's. I'll buy it, I'll even enjoy it, but I'll hate myself for doing so. :p
Hero-of-Time Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Well, as I said yesterday :p Yeah, i'm just messing with ya. It's good to see you coming around to Nintendo on mobile. Hell, if you look back at the various threads mobile threads, while I was never flat out against it, I was never really keen on the idea either. Now, providing my phone actually runs the game, i'll be there day one for this. Nintendo clrealy has a crazy amount of pull on me. From a business standpoint it makes perfect sense. Pokemon GO has proved that Iwata's vision of getting people excited with Nintendo IPs and then turning them back to their own hardware can work. With this releasing before the NX, hopefully we will see the same effect with that.
Shorty Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Very ballsy move. Unfortunately, it has to be 79p to be successful, anything more and it'll be flooded with 1 star reviews. That's how mobile gaming works. Not sure about that. Lara Croft Go was released at £3.99 I think, maybe more, and received great media coverage, topped charts and had a 5 star average. I bought it on the back of that and they didn't even have the free/demo mode like this game. Word of mouth and the free mode will get everyone trying this, and social media will probably do a good job of reminding people that they paid £700 for their phone so the cost of a cup of coffee for a great game isn't so bad.
Serebii Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Yeah, i'm just messing with ya. It's good to see you coming around to Nintendo on mobile. Hell, if you look back at the various threads mobile threads, while I was never flat out against it, I was never really keen on the idea either. Now, providing my phone actually runs the game, i'll be there day one for this. Nintendo clrealy has a crazy amount of pull on me. From a business standpoint it makes perfect sense. Pokemon GO has proved that Iwata's vision of getting people excited with Nintendo IPs and then turning them back to their own hardware can work. With this releasing before the NX, hopefully we will see the same effect with that. I was really unsure with the whole "leverage our IP on mobile to then get them to the main devices" concept, since I've always seen people with the idea "I have this for free/cheap. Why would I spend money to get another version", but thankfully the decent boost the 3DS and all Pokémon games got following GO show that perhaps Iwata was right with this. Iwata truly was a genius of this industry and the industry is worse off with him gone.
Dcubed Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 (edited) [*]Only 0.19% of users make in-app purchases, which is obviously very low but the number above shows that those that do, do so in bulk. This is kind of the big sticking point here... The big mobile games make their money off of whales (a small number of people who become addicted and pour thousands of pounds into the game; subsidising the game for everyone else). That being said, Pokemon Go managed to buck the trend and make its main money from a much wider range of people at smaller amounts, something that Iwata stated to be Nintendo's mantra with their mobile efforts. But here with SMR? The business model they're using here is typically one of the least successful ones on mobile... Conversion rates for these kinds of demo-with-full-game-purchase-from-within games is usually extremely poor on mobile, so... yeah... very ballsy move here... With Apple putting their full weight behind it (going so far as to put out a notification system on the App Store for it, a first for any app AFAIK), perhaps they'll buck the trend again? It's great to see that they're dead set on taking the honest route with their Free to Start games (even here on mobile, where said games usually meet a terrible fate), but I'm not sure if they'll pull it off... Still, if any game would ever be able to manage it, it would be this one. Edited September 8, 2016 by Dcubed
Ashley Posted September 8, 2016 Author Posted September 8, 2016 I was really unsure with the whole "leverage our IP on mobile to then get them to the main devices" concept, since I've always seen people with the idea "I have this for free/cheap. Why would I spend money to get another version", but thankfully the decent boost the 3DS and all Pokémon games got following GO show that perhaps Iwata was right with this. Iwata truly was a genius of this industry and the industry is worse off with him gone. Umm this kind of approach wasn't Iwata's idea for the industry. It was going on before they even sniffed at mobile.
Agent Gibbs Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Completely indifferent to to this really, but i'm sure it will be a money maker and please a lot of people
Ronnie Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 (edited) I get the feeling that the app itself will be free, but to get beyond the demo you have to pay the price they quote, maybe that's a better way of going about it than paid from the start? Also, I like the whole make your own Mushroom Kingdom idea With Apple putting their full weight behind it (going so far as to put out a notification system on the App Store for it, a first for any app AFAIK), perhaps they'll buck the trend again? Wow, just opened the App Store on my phone and you're right, the main box is for SMR and the option to be notified when it's available. Never seen that kind of promotion from Apple before, but if they were going to do it with any game, a Nintendo one would be it. Edited September 8, 2016 by Ronnie
Ashley Posted September 8, 2016 Author Posted September 8, 2016 I get the feeling that the app itself will be free, but to get beyond the demo you have to pay the price they quote, maybe that's a better way of going about it than paid from the start? Yeah I believe that is it. Get a bit for free, pay for the lot.
Ronnie Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Get it into as many people's hands as possible, then tempt them with a one off cost for the game, sounds the ideal way to do it.
Dcubed Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 I get the feeling that the app itself will be free, but to get beyond the demo you have to pay the price they quote, maybe that's a better way of going about it than paid from the start? Yeah, it's exactly like Pushmo, Project Zero MOBW, or early 90s Shareware. Download the demo, purchase the rest of the game from within. Get it into as many people's hands as possible, then tempt them with a one off cost for the game, sounds the ideal way to do it. That's the thing... This usually doesn't work out well on mobile at all as the conversion rates for these kinds of games is typically incredibly poor. There's a reason why Free to Play has shot off like a rocket on mobile. People are used to getting something for nothing now. That's why it's so surprising that Nintendo are going this route with SMR.
dazzybee Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Anyone with negative things to say about this should go check out Rayman Jungle Run which is, decidedly, the shit. This! Rayman is a perfect port of a plat former to mobile, and this is following in that template. I have no doubt this will be amazing.
Ashley Posted September 8, 2016 Author Posted September 8, 2016 Man I'd kill for another Rayman game right now... That's the thing... This usually doesn't work out well on mobile at all as the conversion rates for these kinds of games is typically incredibly poor. There's a reason why Free to Play has shot off like a rocket on mobile. People are used to getting something for nothing now. That's why it's so surprising that Nintendo are going this route with SMR. Did you see one of the points in my post at the top of the page - paid for games still account for ~50% of all money made from mobiles (as opposed to IAP and advertising). It's declining, but it's still a surprising chunk.
dazzybee Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 (edited) It could be a game on my freaking fridge for all I care. But if it's not got good gameplay, I don't give a damn!When did this preconceived notion that I think all games on a non-console are inherently bad come from? Mario Run looks utterly dull. Yes, you could argue it's not for me. So what? I don't get a say? I'm a huge Mario fan. Suddenly I don't matter? But how do you know it's bad? Have you played said jungle run? I'll bet my only testicle this is better than New Super Marios Bros 2. Edited September 8, 2016 by dazzybee
Ronnie Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 That's the thing... This usually doesn't work out well on mobile at all as the conversion rates for these kinds of games is typically incredibly poor. There's a reason why Free to Play has shot off like a rocket on mobile. People are used to getting something for nothing now. That's why it's so surprising that Nintendo are going this route with SMR. Given the negative attitudes over FTP games on mobile maybe it was done to maintain a bit of integrity? You get the sense they're almost embarrassed about the idea of fleecing customers for money. Miitomo you had to go digging to give them money, and Nintendo Badge Arcade almost apologised for charging you by giving you so many free goes. Maybe they don't see SMR as a big earner for them, but as a marketing tool to get people onto their hardware.
Ashley Posted September 8, 2016 Author Posted September 8, 2016 I'll be my only testicle Things just got very strange...
dazzybee Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Also think it's funny that this has better online/social features than most Nintendo games on their main consoles Things just got very strange... That's how confident I am... Well, more my confidence at how awful NSMB 2 is.
Hero-of-Time Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 Things just got very strange... It's hard to know if he's serious or whether his iPad has auto corrected again.
Ashley Posted September 8, 2016 Author Posted September 8, 2016 That's how confident I am... Well, more my confidence at how awful NSMB 2 is. It's an interesting one. "I'm so confident I'll be my only testicle!"
RedShell Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 *re-emerges from the void of The Tomorrow Children* ... *sees Super Mario Run* ... Man, that was quite a trip. I need to dig out that mobile thread to see who said Nintendo would never resort to this. Hahaha! Me, I definitely said they'd never do this. Anyway, I think the game looks pretty rad. Loving Mario's parkour style! :awesome: Things just got very strange...Hello, you must be new here.
Clownferret Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 It's an interesting one. "I'm so confident I'll be my only testicle!" @dazzybee lost his other testicle playing me at FIFA. KERBOOM!!!!!!
Glen-i Posted September 8, 2016 Posted September 8, 2016 (edited) But how do you know it's bad? Have you played said jungle run? I'll bet my only testicle this is better than New Super Marios Bros 2. I didn't say bad, I said dull. There's a world of difference there. Movement satisfaction is a big part of the "Good Platformer" package for me, so taking that away makes me sceptical. You also happen to be talking about my second favourite NSMB game, so I'm not sure what you're getting at. Edited September 8, 2016 by Glen-i
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