General Switch Discussion

[Hero-of-Time]

I know how much you love an Emily Rogers rumour, @Nicktendo.  Here is the latest from her.

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Let's look at this logically.

First half of the year is January through end of June.

January had a Wii U port (Tokyo Mirage Sessions).
February had nothing.
March is Animal Crossing / Pokemon Mystery Dungeon month.

That leaves you trying to guess what's releasing in April, May, and June. And trust me, I've given more than enough hints on how those next 3 months will look.

She has previous said that two more Wii U ports are on the way from Nintendo. I initially thought one of them would be The Wonderful 101 but...

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Like I said two months ago:

• Nintendo had very little interest in publishing a W101 port.
• Platinum has been looking for a way to release W101 port without Nintendo's involvement.

To be clear: W101 isn't one of the two Wii U ports that I was hinting at.

I'm gonna guess that the two ports are Pikmin 3 and Super Mario 3D World, one or both of them will probably be hitting in that April-June spot. 

If true, it's once again a very slow/soft start of the year for the Switch. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Hero-of-Time

[MindFreak]

Yeah. That's why I'm glad I just got Witcher 3. That's going to fill the void nicely.

[Nicktendo]

 

54 minutes ago, Hero-of-Time said:

I know how much you love an Emily Rogers rumour, @Nicktendo.  Here is the latest from her.

You know what they say... 

I think I'm probably gonna skip any Wii U ports for the foreseeable. Now that I've set it up again I don't fancy dropping 50 bones on something I already own, I'd much rather get a few e-shop games. If I can get either of them cheap, I'll think about it. Though I do wonder how Pikmin 3 will control without the incredible dual-screen touch controls...

[Ashley]

If* 3 of the 5 games released over the first six months were Wii U ports that would be a pretty lacklustre start to the year.

*I say if because this is a rumour and also we might get something else released at short notice a la PMD.

[Goron_3]

3 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

I know how much you love an Emily Rogers rumour, @Nicktendo.  Here is the latest from her.

She has previous said that two more Wii U ports are on the way from Nintendo. I initially thought one of them would be The Wonderful 101 but...

I'm gonna guess that the two ports are Pikmin 3 and Super Mario 3D World, one or both of them will probably be hitting in that April-June spot. 

If true, it's once again a very slow/soft start of the year for the Switch. 

I'm inclined to agree about Pikmin and SM3DW coming in the first half of the year. I'd consider rebuying 3DW if it had a few more levels or something, but otherwise it will just be Animal Crossing and Xenoblade Chronicles for me (which is rumoured to be coming around May).

[Ronnie]

I absolutely adored 3D World, so would love to play through it again on the Switch. The whole game was polished to perfection, especially the visuals.

Nintendo always add something to their ports, to varying degrees of decency, new levels might be a stretch but hopefully it'll be something good. 

I still think Odyssey 2 is coming at the end of this year so it'd be a strange move to release them so close together but then again we had NSMBUDX and SMM2 released within 6 months of each other last year so who knows.

[Ike]

I hope it's Pikmin 3, but I'm ready for Pikmin 4 at this point.

[Nicktendo]

Q3 Earnings are out.

Switch YTD: 17.74 million (including 5.19m Lite) / LTD: 52.48m.
Will likely hit 20 million for the year. Craziness.

Games LTD Sales

Mario Kart 8 DX: 22.69 million 
Smash Bros. Ultimate: 17.68 m
Mario Odyssey: 16.59m
Zelda - BOTW: 16.34m

Pokemon Sw/Sh: 16.06 m (ridiculous).
Pokemon Let's go: 11.76m
Super Mario Party 9.12m (wut?)
Splatoon 2: 9.0m
NSMBU DX: 5.85m

Luigi's Mansion: 5.37m
Super Mario Maker 2: 5.04m
Link's Awakening: 4.19m
FE Three Houses: 2.29m
Ring Fit Adventure: 2.17m 

Both Astral Chain (1.03) and Marvel Ult. Allience 3 (1.02) have 1 million sales.

More info at https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html

[Hero-of-Time]

Nintendo have released their latest sales data.

• Astral Chain has sold over 1 million copies
• Ring Fit Adventure has sold over 2 million copies
• Pokemon Sword and Shield has sold over 16 million copies
• Luigi's Mansion 3 has sold over 5 million copies
• Mario Maker 2 has sold over 5 million copies
• Link's Awakening has sold over 4 million copies
• Fire Emblem Three House has sold 2.5 million copies
• Evergreen titles such as Breath of the Wild (16 million) Smash Bros Ultimate (17 million) and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (22 million) continue to sell well
• Last year, the Switch itself sold more units in a single year than any other console this generation (in the US)

Great to see that kind of success for both Luigi's Mansion 3 and Ring Fit Adventure. I was surprised that Fire Emblem didn't sell a lot more than it did and also surprised that Astral Chain reached over 1 million.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Hero-of-Time

[Hero-of-Time]

We clearly just hit reply at the same time @Nicktendo. 

[Hero-of-Time]

At this point you have to imagine that the Switch has now outsold or close to outselling the Xbox One. Microsoft don't give out their numbers anymore so it's all guess work now.

[Nicktendo]

Only the Wii and the NES are ahead in sales numbers now. An incredible feat when it's not even been three years. A long way to go to pass the other handheld systems. 3DS is first at 75.71 million. GBA at 81.51 million. Original GB is at 118.69, a tall order. Original DS seems out of reach (154 mil). 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Nicktendo

[drahkon]

12 minutes ago, Nicktendo said:

A long way to go to pass the other handheld systems.

Pff, no way it's going to pass PSVita sales.

 

[Hero-of-Time]

21 minutes ago, Nicktendo said:

Only the Wii and the SNES are ahead in sales numbers now. An incredible feat when it's not even been three years. A long way to go to pass the other handheld systems. 3DS is first at 75.71 million. GBA at 81.51 million. Original GB is at 118.69, a tall order. Original DS seems out of reach (154 mil). 

It's a weird one because the Switch is selling INSANELY well but you have to remember that it is two things in one. If we were to combine the sales of both console and handheld for each generation, which is essentially what the Switch is, I wonder how it would stack up in comparison. This is in no way me trying to downplay the success of the Switch, but I think it's an interesting thought given that they merged their two divisions.

[Nicktendo]

25 minutes ago, Hero-of-Time said:

It's a weird one because the Switch is selling INSANELY well but you have to remember that it is two things in one. If we were to combine the sales of both console and handheld for each generation, which is essentially what the Switch is, I wonder how it would stack up in comparison. This is in no way me trying to downplay the success of the Switch, but I think it's an interesting thought given that they merged their two divisions.

I think that's the sensible way to look at it. Numbers wise, while the Switch is performing (probably better than Wii U + 3DS), I can't see it topping the SNES / GB or GC / GBA eras in total hardware sales, not to even mention Wii / DS. With them consolidating two revenue streams into one, they need numbers to be big. Software is obviously helping in this regard, particularly when it comes to the higher price point + digital sales. The $1 billion in revenue from the mobile stuff, obviously, is another feather in the cap. I guess the talk of theme parks and movies / TV shows is starting to make more sense now. With a decline in hardware sales (which it is, at the end of the day), they need to make up for the smaller install base in other ways. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Nicktendo

[Hero-of-Time]

6 minutes ago, Nicktendo said:

I think that's the sensible way to look at it. Numbers wise, while the Switch is performing (probably better than Wii U + 3DS), I can't see it topping the SNES / GB or GC / GBA eras in total hardware sales, not to even mention Wii / DS. With them consolidating two revenue streams into one, they need numbers to be big. Software is obviously helping in this regard, particularly when it comes to the higher price point + digital sales. The $1 billion in revenue from the mobile stuff, obviously, is another feather in the cap. I guess the talk of theme parks and movies / TV shows is starting to make more sense now. With a decline in hardware sales (which it is, at the end of the day), they need to make up for the smaller install base in other ways. 

Yeah, their mobile business, as much as I hate it, is helping prop up the decline in hardware. Nintendo merchandise has always been a thing, especially during the 80's, and i'm more than happy for them to lean on that more. The Nintendo store that recently opened in Japan is doing very well at the moment and the theme park should prove to be a massive success. I think Nintendo are the only one out of the 3 console makers that have this kind of pulling power with their IPs, so it makes sense to try and expand the business using them.

[Goron_3]

52 minutes ago, Hero-of-Time said:

It's a weird one because the Switch is selling INSANELY well but you have to remember that it is two things in one. If we were to combine the sales of both console and handheld for each generation, which is essentially what the Switch is, I wonder how it would stack up in comparison. This is in no way me trying to downplay the success of the Switch, but I think it's an interesting thought given that they merged their two divisions.

Good point. The Switch was a high stakes console; if it failed they would have lost 2 big revenue streams (console and handheld), but it's success is well deserved. It's such a great console.

Delighted to see Astral Chain selling 1 million! Hopefully that means that they can make a sequel, just in time for Switch 2

[Dcubed]

2 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

At this point you have to imagine that the Switch has now outsold or close to outselling the Xbox One. Microsoft don't give out their numbers anymore so it's all guess work now.

Current estimates put the Xbox One at around 47-49 million; so yes, Switch has now outsold Xbox One.

 

1 hour ago, Hero-of-Time said:

It's a weird one because the Switch is selling INSANELY well but you have to remember that it is two things in one. If we were to combine the sales of both console and handheld for each generation, which is essentially what the Switch is, I wonder how it would stack up in comparison. This is in no way me trying to downplay the success of the Switch, but I think it's an interesting thought given that they merged their two divisions.

And you’re absolutely right.  Switch needs to outsell both the 3DS and Wii U combined to justify being a hybrid; and that’s exactly what Nintendo will be expecting it to do.

 

Luckily Switch is on track to outsell both Wii U & 3DS combined! It will probably outsell the GBA & GCN combined as well too (that’s only around 105 million; very achievable!).

 

GB & SNES/N64 and Wii & DS are well out of reach though.  It will probably end up outselling the Wii when everything is said and done, but I don’t see it outselling the original GB and the DS; no chance for the latter.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Dcubed

[Goron_3]

I genuinely think that, for the first ever, it's highly likely that we might end up in a situation where Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo all have hardware out on the market that are each performing well and making money for each console maker. Switch will continue to sell, PS5 is guaranteed to do well and Sony are making a tonne of money off of digital sales, and I expect Microsoft to perform well next gen based off of what we know so far.  

It's a terrific time to be a gamer. I'd rather have 3 successful console makers that are all making huge profits than a PS2/GC/Xbox situation where there is a runaway leader. 

[Happenstance]

18 minutes ago, Goron_3 said:

It's a terrific time to be a gamer. I'd rather have 3 successful console makers that are all making huge profits than a PS2/GC/Xbox situation where there is a runaway leader. 

Don't forget when Sega re-enter the market in a year or so as well. 

[Ronnie]

These hardware numbers really caught me off guard. It's now surpassed the SNES! Last year was brilliant for software so I guess it shouldn't have been that big a surprise.

4 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

Last year, the Switch itself sold more units in a single year than any other console this generation (in the US)

Wow. That's insane statistic. What an incredible turnaround from the Wii U.

3 hours ago, Nicktendo said:

With them consolidating two revenue streams into one, they need numbers to be big.

Sure the revenue stream is cut in half but so are their costs. R&D, manufacturing, marketing. It's not as simple as saying The Switch needs to sell what their console and handheld sell combined. Their mobile initiative is to make up for the loss in profit, as @Hero-of-Time suggests.

[Ronnie]

Also...

4 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

Ring Fit Adventure has sold over 2 million copies

 

 

[Ronnie]

[Hero-of-Time]

2 hours ago, Goron_3 said:

I genuinely think that, for the first ever, it's highly likely that we might end up in a situation where Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo all have hardware out on the market that are each performing well and making money for each console maker. Switch will continue to sell, PS5 is guaranteed to do well and Sony are making a tonne of money off of digital sales, and I expect Microsoft to perform well next gen based off of what we know so far.  

It's a terrific time to be a gamer. I'd rather have 3 successful console makers that are all making huge profits than a PS2/GC/Xbox situation where there is a runaway leader. 

Indeed. I think it's also the first time where all 3 of the console makers are just doing their own thing. Sony seem to be continuing their tried and tested way of selling hardware/software. Microsoft are slowing turning the Xbox brand into a more service based product. Nintendo merging their handheld/console products and offering a different way to play. All of the companies doing well bodes well for the industry. 

[Ronnie]

It seems strange that they can make a cheap as chips party game like Mario Party and it'll sell 9 million, but Fire Emblem with its 100+ hour fully voice acted campaigns can sell "only" a quarter of that.