Is the Gaming Industry in need of a Crash?

[Hero-of-Time]

How the hell did it come to this? The industry is a real mess right now. I have a real gut feeling that PS4 and Xbox1 sales are going to mirror Wii U ( initial strong pre christmas then tail off) and if this turns out to be the case the industry is in real danger.

 

Good. We could do with a good old industry crash. It would be the shake up that most companies need to get their heads out of their backsides. We need to get back to basics.

 

I mentioned in the Lego City thread that the game is one of the most fun games I have played and i'm sure others who have played it will agree with me. That is what gaming is supposed to be about: FUN!

 

Somewhere along the way developers/publishers have forgot about creating a fun experience and care more about the business/money side of things. It is possible to have both. See Nintendo for details.

[Rummy]

Good. We could do with a good old industry crash. It would be the shake up that most companies need to get their heads out of their backsides. We need to get back to basics.

 

I mentioned in the Lego City thread that the game is one of the most fun games I have played and i'm sure others who have played it will agree with me. That is what gaming is supposed to be about: FUN!

 

Somewhere along the way developers/publishers have forgot about creating a fun experience and care more about the business/money side of things. It is possible to have both. See Nintendo for details.

 

I thanked this earlier, but being at work(I even switch to non-subtle theme jsut to thank it) I couldn't make a decent enough response. Which is also why my earlier post isn't exactly joined up.

 

Anyhow. As much as I'd hate to see it, I think very much that a crash IS needed. This moves more into general territory but I'm going to use a general example and people will think it's not comparable but meh.

 

 

The gaming market, as I said, is overinflated. Games are about money now, not art/making an experience/a game that stays with people. Yes, it's a generalisation, but genericism is rife now. Either cos it's easy or cos it sells, tech is less constricting. Price of devlopment has inflated ridiculously, and thats with these weird projected sales that don't happen - correct me if I'm wrong but some games can sell half a million, or even a million, and still be a failure? Sometime's wrong there.

 

The gaming market is overinflated, just like the economy and the housing market was. There came a crash(even then not a major one) after quite a steady inflation. You CANNOT sustain overinflation in any market at any rate - if profits on average are not being made, you're looking to bust as a whole. The things being done re: DRM are not things in the interests of consumers, they aren't asked of by consumers nor cared for(actively in some cases, against) - so why's it being done? An overinflated, arrogant industry(just as the housing and banks were) that doesn't care for the end user - an industry who thinks they know best and can put out and can sell regardless. It's not sustainable, yes - the Xbone and PS4 WILL sell...but there's plenty sales they WON'T make because people will disagree with DRM. They'll be so arrogant they won't project for it, and they'll crash with it.

 

Not to give Serebii a boner, but it does make me think it's reasonable for Nintendo to be cautious on pricing of hardware(flipside...they can afford not to be and it's fucked them royal - a cheaper price point and the wii u would have flown, and sold itself a bit through social integration) but yeah..uhhh...I think I had too much scotch and I forgot my point.

 

Basically this is a false economy, overinflated and arrogant with little to minimal concern for the actual end users - they'll spiral to their own ideas and one day realise nobody's buying shit and it's just too late. We need a crash. We need it to go back to basics - indies and what not. I think Nintendo need a MUCH greater western presence and integration and helping hand for indies.

 

Do them incentives. Publish your game with us, and us only, for say...x months for y amount of money. If you don't get it, then sure - go elsewhere. If you DO get it, 6 months more exclusivity or something. 6-12 months of an awesome game on a console where people are dithering may sell hardware.

 

 

Maybe. Sorry. Scotch is bad.

 

 

 

Making a good game can find that money follows - making money does not make good games. We've gone so backwards, we've messed up our priorities. Where's the art and expression of making something awesome that people love? That's what devs should be about. The money follows that, it doesn't work the other way round.

[Dcubed]

The Xbone situation does feel like a bit of a last stand really doesn't it? A real "Us VS Them" scenario.

 

I think that a crash is inevitable, but it'll only be the traditional "AAA" side of the industry that'll go down in flames (hopefully taking the likes of EA and Microsoft with it).

 

While the F2P bubble will no doubt burst soon (as did the "social" gaming sector not long ago), it'll probably survive in a reduced fashion (perhaps as a subset of the gambling industry). Mobile phone gaming will likely do the same too.

 

Not only is this crash inevitable, but it NEEDS to happen if the industry is to survive. The sooner that the "AAA" model and the big publishers that thrive on it die, the better!

 

My main hope is that the mid-tier (in terms of budget) of gaming will get a chance to thrive once more as a result. As the indie devs rise, hopefully they'll become the new "traditional" developers and go on to make great games that focus on actual gameplay and are made with reasonable budgets.

[Serebii]

I've been saying this for a while.

 

Companies are folding like crazy. It's harder and harder to make money on the "AAA" model. Look at Tomb Raider. Barely broken even at 4m sales.

 

The publishers and console manufacturers are no longer thinking of the consumer first, but just trying to "protect" their assets as seen with EA, Activision and Microsoft. Even Sony is falling to that path with their free to play and streaming plans.

 

The only console company that's resisting this is Nintendo, and they're not doing that well with their console because they're not winging the latest tech in and cosying up to publishers like EA. Overall, though, Nintendo is the most likely to survive the inevitable crash, especially as they're hooking all the indie and smaller developers on board.

 

Due to the current information, there is absolutely no chance of me getting an Xbox One, even if they release a new Halo, Mass Effect, Assassin's Creed and Banjo Kazooie exclusive to it, even though I love those franchises. If the PS4 follows suit, which is looking increasingly likely, then I won't be getting that either.

 

Sony can't afford a failure. They lost so much money with the PS3, and have only just started to turn a profit with it. The PSP and Vita also lost a lot of cash, especially the latter. If they screw up the PS4, then they're gone in my view.

 

As for developers, the major developers, especially in the west, are just going for technical showcases more, and when they're not, they tend to focus on the story so much that it gets filled with a ridiculous amount of cutscenes which is not why I buy games.

 

Developers need to get back to the idea behind games. They're meant to be played for fun, not to have a massively deep narrative that you sit and watch.

 

Collapse is inevitable, and there will only be a few big companies standing in the aftermath

[Daft]

No. It doesn't need to crash, nor will it. The idea of a crash comes from cynicism and wishful thinking. In fact, the suggestion is laughably facil - just looking at Serebii's post, no mention of the indie scene which is growing in prominence from week to week (this rise has clearly been noticed in the industry). The industry isn't just AAA games, it encompases a whole spectrum. It's not just the big three console manufacturers - games exist on phones, tablets, TVs. Hell, Steam is an absolutely amazing ecosystem for games.

 

It's absolutely mind-boggling how simplistic the arguments for a crash are. They contain more than the faint whiffs of nostalgia porn.

 

People honestly think the PS4 and XBome are going to tank like the Wii U? That the 260 million console units that were sold this generation (yes, more than a quarter of a billion machines) are just going to magically disappear? Hilarious. The Wii U tanked for the same reason the Vita tanked - it was the answer to a question no one asked. It doesn't help they are both incredibly poorly supported, that they were both incredibly overpriced and had incredibly lame marketing - however, their main problem is their core features fill no need. They have terrible USPs.

Edited June 8, 2013 by Daft

[Rummy]

Sadly, I agree that we won't SEE a crash, but I think it COULD be good. I have no illusion that the next gen won't still sell(hell, even the wii u IS selling, just terribly) but the latter factors you mention may have an effect. Sure, hardware sales are all well and good, but what about the software/attaches? The next gen will probably survive, but what about the one after, or the one after that? I think the next gen will see a much more drastic slowing than most people expect. I would add, though you mention PC and Steam, I didn't consider/include them in my opinions - I'm thinking straight up about the home console market really.

 

The Wii U's different imo from the PS4 and Xbone due to be a fractured/different market. You'll find a certain percentage of PS3/Xbox owners will purchase a PS4/Xbone. The percentage of Wii owners who will purchase a Wii U is much much smaller though I reckon, it's a different beast to the others due to how it was sold, and that'll be Nintendo's biggest downfall. However...I do wonder if they expect things to be bad and are stonewalling against it a bit.

[Oxigen_Waste]

Aye, we're in dire need of a crash! This whole oligarchy model needs to die. And we need standardization, desperately. It's the only way to go.

Edited June 8, 2013 by Oxigen_Waste
misspelled oligarchy

[Cube]

Even Sony is falling to that path with their free to play and streaming plans.

 

What?

 

Their free to play model is insanely good, as shown by Killzone 3 and Uncharted 3. After the game has been out for a while, they release a free-to-play version of the multiplayer.

 

This brings new people to the game, and makes the game last much longer. It's great for the people who bought the game at launch and it's great for new players.

 

As for streaming, it's just an alternate way to play. It's not required and it's not a negative point in any way.

 

Gaming has never been so profitable, it's just that some companies haven't found the right balance between the big budgets and sales. I'm pretty sure the next Tomb Raider will be much more profitable. The gaming industry rivals the music and movie industries.

 

Gaming has also never been more varied. The amount of smaller, independent companies and individuals having insanely good sales is quite significant, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. Add in crowd funding, and these companies have even more money without the need for a publisher.

 

On top of this, Nintendo and Sony are giving them much more freedom over their own games.

[Serebii]

What?

 

Their free to play model is insanely good, as shown by Killzone 3 and Uncharted 3. After the game has been out for a while, they release a free-to-play version of the multiplayer.

 

This brings new people to the game, and makes the game last much longer. It's great for the people who bought the game at launch and it's great for new players.

 

As for streaming, it's just an alternate way to play. It's not required and it's not a negative point in any way.

 

Gaming has never been so profitable, it's just that some companies haven't found the right balance between the big budgets and sales. I'm pretty sure the next Tomb Raider will be much more profitable. The gaming industry rivals the music and movie industries.

 

Gaming has also never been more varied. The amount of smaller, independent companies and individuals having insanely good sales is quite significant, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. Add in crowd funding, and these companies have even more money without the need for a publisher.

 

On top of this, Nintendo and Sony are giving them much more freedom over their own games.

 

I was talking free to play as a concept in general really. Yeah, it's profitable, but it essentially screws the consumer

[Happenstance]

Tomb Raider is a bad example anyway. That didnt lose money because of how much it cost to make but because it was expected to make up lost sales for games that did in fact lose money.

[Cube]

Just because some certainly screw over the customer, doesn't mean that they all are.

[dazzybee]

No. It doesn't need to crash, nor will it. The idea of a crash comes from cynicism and wishful thinking. In fact, the suggestion is laughably facil - just looking at Serebii's post, no mention of the indie scene which is growing in prominence from week to week (this rise has clearly been noticed in the industry). The industry isn't just AAA games, it encompases a whole spectrum. It's not just the big three console manufacturers - games exist on phones, tablets, TVs. Hell, Steam is an absolutely amazing ecosystem for games.

 

It's absolutely mind-boggling how simplistic the arguments for a crash are. They contain more than the faint whiffs of nostalgia porn.

 

People honestly think the PS4 and XBome are going to tank like the Wii U? That the 260 million console units that were sold this generation (yes, more than a quarter of a billion machines) are just going to magically disappear? Hilarious. The Wii U tanked for the same reason the Vita tanked - it was the answer to a question no one asked. It doesn't help they are both incredibly poorly supported, that they were both incredibly overpriced and had incredibly lame marketing - however, their main problem is their core features fill no need. They have terrible USPs.

 

Im not disagreeing that the arguments for a Chris aren't a little thin, or maybe naive (though I do think a crash of sorts is coming this gen, been saying it for months), I do think your analysis of the Wii u is equally thin and premature. D you not think nintendo are going to have a good year? I bet more Wii us get sold this autumn/Christmas than the Xbox and ps4, if not put together. To say they have no usp is a little silly, what usp have consoles ever had barring the Wii and DS that have been sold because of it? Maybe live. Maybe. It's all about games. The Wii u hasn't sold because of games. The it's isnt selling because of games. The 3ds didn't sell because of games. The ps3 didn't sell because of games. That is all that matters, and why Xbox will struggle if they really do shift focus.

[Jonnas]

The industry doesn't need a crash. Only the unsustainable AAA mentality does. Nintendo doesn't follow such a mentality, and neither do the dozens of small developers that sprung during this generation.

 

Also, the Xbone also needs to fail, considering it contains so much of what's wrong with the industry into one single package. If that fails, we'll have the big western developers re-evaluate their entire approach to the market.

 

Basically, we don't need a market crash to stop the industry's ills, just like we don't need a revolution to solve an economic crisis.

[MoogleViper]

You guys seem to misunderstand what the word crash means.

[Oxigen_Waste]

The industry doesn't need a crash. Only the unsustainable AAA mentality does. Nintendo doesn't follow such a mentality, and neither do the dozens of small developers that sprung during this generation.

 

Also, the Xbone also needs to fail, considering it contains so much of what's wrong with the industry into one single package. If that fails, we'll have the big western developers re-evaluate their entire approach to the market.

 

Basically, we don't need a market crash to stop the industry's ills, just like we don't need a revolution to solve an economic crisis.

 

I actually think it's in dire need of a total and complete collapse, not just a crash. The current model is absurdly unfair and complicated to the consumer. Standardization is the highest priority in my book. I'm fucking tired of having to buy 5 consoles and a PC just to have access to the whole spectrum of the medium. Exclusives need to disappear. Development and distribution desperately need streamlining. I hope this is the last "generation" ever. We need a universal model in place, one where the consumer is the priority, not the companies.