Sheikah Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Read his post again. Clue: he didn't say Mr Pachters predictions were like a roulette wheel. Wow, what an incredibly condescending post. If you look at what I said, it makes no difference whether I referred to a roulette wheel or a roulette player. The analogy is the same - the idea of banking on a single or few numbers, such that occasionally you will be right due to the fact there's always a slim chance you'll win in roulette.
Pestneb Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 The point isn't that he is negative, it's just that he's wrong so much of the time, or more often exaggerates the consequences when he is right. And it makes a huge difference - the roulette wheel was unpredictable, the player was not.
Sheikah Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 And it makes a huge difference - the roulette wheel was unpredictable, the player was not. Not at all - both are deeply stochastic, which is the crux of the analogy whichever way you look at it. Jonnas says Pachter makes predictable assertions (e.g. "Nintendo should go with HD"). But then he says he's like a roulette player, where his number will come in eventually as that is the nature of the game. In roulette, any number a roulette player picks has the same chance of coming in as any other. It's basically the opposite of picking a 'predictable' number (or gaming prediction, in Pachter's case), in the case of what Jonnas also said, since such a thing doesn't exist.
Jonnas Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Saying that that Nintendo will find itself in financial difficulties, and making the same prediction year after year, is the same thing as predicting that a country will enter recession/expansion, and make the prediction year after year: It's bound to happen at one point. His suggestions to improve are a different kind of predictable (do whatever the bulk of the competition is doing, which nowadays includes smartphones as well), but it's not exactly something we can measure, as Nintendo doesn't follow his suggestions. The crux of the analogy is: he's wrong most of the time, and when he happens to be right, it doesn't come off as actual insight. (Also, pestneb is right, I'm talking about the player, not the game. "Other Roulette players" and "same odds of winning" don't even factor into the analogy)
Sheikah Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 (edited) Saying that that Nintendo will find itself in financial difficulties, and making the same prediction year after year, is the same thing as predicting that a country will enter recession/expansion, and make the prediction year after year: It's bound to happen at one point. Saying that Nintendo need to go third party is a once-only event that will either happen or won't, and isn't something so predictable as "Nintendo stock prices will be bad" continuously until it is true. So that example shows that not everything he says is so predictable or 'bound to be right eventually', such that discrediting him entirely like you have done seems cheap. I'm not arguing that he hasn't made such bound-to-be-true predictions, I'm saying that he also makes predictions that don't follow those rules and are at least worth listening to. The crux of the analogy is: he's wrong most of the time, and when he happens to be right, it doesn't come off as actual insight. This might be the problem. You discredit what useful input he has (e.g. "they should adopt HD") because it is obvious. The fact it is obvious is entirely Nintendo's fault. They did need to adopt HD. They didn't need to go with a Gamepad. They did need to advertise it. They did need to cultivate third party relations. Essentially, if an analyst picks up on these things, even though they're also obvious to us, he's not insightful? I'm struggling to think what other nuggets an analyst is supposed to pick up on to earn our respect, when there are such glaring inadequacies already laid out in front of us. (Also, pestneb is right, I'm talking about the player, not the game. "Other Roulette players" and "same odds of winning" don't even factor into the analogy) I think using roulette as an example in that capacity doesn't really work. An analyst making demands or predictions based on the competition or figures has nothing to do with a roulette player. Even if you argue "additional spins (years) increase the chance of his bet coming in", you've said yourself that his guesses are predictable - or safe bets. As in, he says the things that are likely to happen. That's contrary to picking something unlikely, then waiting years and years for it to eventually come true to find some glory from guessing 'correctly'. He could do both, sure, but it was the way you argued both in the same post before that essentially triggered my criticism. Edited September 7, 2014 by Sheikah
Serebii Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Pachter has been wrong more times than I have been positive about Nintendo. Let that sink in a bit...
Sheikah Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Pachter has been wrong more times than I have been positive about Nintendo. Let that sink in a bit... But the million dollar question...has Pachter been wrong more times than you? And if not, should we not listen to you, either? :p
Serebii Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 But the million dollar question...has Pachter been wrong more times than you? And if not, should we not listen to you, either? :p I'm rarely wrong, my friend. You mistake differences of views and opinions as me being wrong because I see things different to you.
Ashley Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Pachter has been wrong more times than I have been positive about Nintendo. Let that sink in a bit... Proof? On an average day you post numerous positive comments about Nintendo on this and other sites. At the end of the day, he works a 9-5 and given holidays he'd have to make several predictions (if not over a dozen) incorrect predictions every working day. How probable do you think that is, really? I'm sure someone did an analysis and found he's right about half of the time. If I wasn't on the train I'd track it down, but perhaps someone else can. ("Train", "track". Don't you love a naturally occurring pun?)
Sheikah Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 (edited) I'm rarely wrong, my friend. You mistake differences of views and opinions as me being wrong because I see things different to you. My friend? You're wrong already. I joke, but in all seriousness you are wrong all the time. I know, opinions can't be wrong. However, this opinion is wrong. lolz Proof? On an average day you post numerous positive comments about Nintendo on this and other sites. At the end of the day, he works a 9-5 and given holidays he'd have to make several predictions (if not over a dozen) incorrect predictions every working day. How probable do you think that is, really? I'm sure someone did an analysis and found he's right about half of the time. If I wasn't on the train I'd track it down, but perhaps someone else can. ("Train", "track". Don't you love a naturally occurring pun?) So in other words... *cue suspense* Serebii...is wrong. Edited September 7, 2014 by Sheikah
liger05 Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 XBO and PS4 are essentially identical. Whilst Nintendo does lack the robust online services and third party support it offers something different. Games like Kirby's Canvas Curse are a perfect example. A vibrant art style and something different to what others are doing. That's the Nintendo philosophy. It makes Nintendo stand out in a good way. Just take Super Mario 3D World - it's essentially the perfect game and every level exhibits the kind of innovation and new ideas that a lesser company would recycle into an entire world or mechanic for a whole game. Moves like rescuing Bayonetta 2. The Bayonetta double pack looks incredible, and absolutely one of the best most polished releases of the year. But no one else was interested in it and the franchise would have died without Nintendo. New takes on existing genres like Splatoon - who else is doing a team based shooter like that? It's either gruff space marines or war in the desert! Again, the Nintendo difference. Nintendo may not be perfect, but they are an important counterbalance in the industry. You might mock @Serebii, but his point is valid. Without Nintendo, the industry would be two consoles with exactly the same focus and output. Nintendo do get stuff wrong - but they also get a hell of a lot of stuff right. I dont think anyone would disagree that the Nintendo difference is there software and I wish Nintendo would accept that themselves instead of trying to be different by launching underpowered consoles with silly gimmicks. Launch a console which is comparable to the competition and let the software do the talking.
Gizmo Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 I think I'm gonna give up on reading this thread.
Jonnas Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Good point. We've made and argued our points, and we're now debating semantics, repeating previous arguments, and using ad hominem. Moving along.
Fierce_LiNk Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 I think I'm gonna give up on reading this thread. The parallels between this thread and the PS4 one is quite humorous. In that one, it's much friendlier and it tends to be mostly about the games. Other than that, maybe info about upcoming updates, etc. This one has passed its sell-by-date long, long ago. It's basically some sort of hybrid between the Sales Discussion Thread and some sort of "Nintendo dun goof'd" discussion. I agree, it is boring and very circular. Buuut, these arguments will continue until something changes. I maintain that when things go right, nobody really complains. Hence why a lot of people in the PS4 thread are quite happy and why this thread is quite angry all of the time. So, how to achieve happiness? I think the time for many to admit that it's very difficult to get by solely on Nintendo's offerings has come and gone. It is interesting that the ones who are least defensive about Nintendo are also the ones who also own a Nintendo machine as well as something else. Hero-of-Time is a prime example of this. Honestly, I do think that's the only way to be really "happy" with what's out there. That way, you enjoy what Nintendo put out there and can still enjoy everything else. Yes, they'll always be behind with a lot of "standard" things like the OS and online/media capabilities, but that's just going to have to be accepted, imo. They'll make minor improvements, but that's it. Honestly, I feel much happier as a gamer now that I've got a machine that can do all of the other stuff that Nintendo can't and simply won't. It really is possible to have the best of both worlds in that regard. The only issue for me now is the quality and quantity of games that Nintendo output themselves now. As much as people try and proclaim them to be classics, I really don't think games such as 3D World and MK8 are the games that they are held up to be. It worries me that these are being seen as classics because...for me they aren't. They are "nice" but they're not pushing the boundaries like their predecessors. I can't love MK8 and I love it even less after seeing the total waste of a Battle Mode that is contained within the game. As good as Nintendo are, this was shockingly lazy.
Retro_Link Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 XBO and PS4 are essentially identical. Whilst Nintendo does lack the robust online services and third party support it offers something different. Games like Kirby's Canvas Curse are a perfect example. A vibrant art style and something different to what others are doing. That's the Nintendo philosophy. It makes Nintendo stand out in a good way. Just take Super Mario 3D World - it's essentially the perfect game and every level exhibits the kind of innovation and new ideas that a lesser company would recycle into an entire world or mechanic for a whole game. Moves like rescuing Bayonetta 2. The Bayonetta double pack looks incredible, and absolutely one of the best most polished releases of the year. But no one else was interested in it and the franchise would have died without Nintendo. New takes on existing genres like Splatoon - who else is doing a team based shooter like that? It's either gruff space marines or war in the desert! Again, the Nintendo difference. Nintendo may not be perfect, but they are an important counterbalance in the industry. You might mock @Serebii, but his point is valid. Without Nintendo, the industry would be two consoles with exactly the same focus and output. Nintendo do get stuff wrong - but they also get a hell of a lot of stuff right. Plants vs Zombies?
liger05 Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 The parallels between this thread and the PS4 one is quite humorous. In that one, it's much friendlier and it tends to be mostly about the games. Other than that, maybe info about upcoming updates, etc. This one has passed its sell-by-date long, long ago. It's basically some sort of hybrid between the Sales Discussion Thread and some sort of "Nintendo dun goof'd" discussion. I agree, it is boring and very circular. Buuut, these arguments will continue until something changes. I maintain that when things go right, nobody really complains. Hence why a lot of people in the PS4 thread are quite happy and why this thread is quite angry all of the time. So, how to achieve happiness? I think the time for many to admit that it's very difficult to get by solely on Nintendo's offerings has come and gone. It is interesting that the ones who are least defensive about Nintendo are also the ones who also own a Nintendo machine as well as something else. Hero-of-Time is a prime example of this. Honestly, I do think that's the only way to be really "happy" with what's out there. That way, you enjoy what Nintendo put out there and can still enjoy everything else. Yes, they'll always be behind with a lot of "standard" things like the OS and online/media capabilities, but that's just going to have to be accepted, imo. They'll make minor improvements, but that's it. Honestly, I feel much happier as a gamer now that I've got a machine that can do all of the other stuff that Nintendo can't and simply won't. It really is possible to have the best of both worlds in that regard. The only issue for me now is the quality and quantity of games that Nintendo output themselves now. As much as people try and proclaim them to be classics, I really don't think games such as 3D World and MK8 are the games that they are held up to be. It worries me that these are being seen as classics because...for me they aren't. They are "nice" but they're not pushing the boundaries like their predecessors. I can't love MK8 and I love it even less after seeing the total waste of a Battle Mode that is contained within the game. As good as Nintendo are, this was shockingly lazy. I have owned the PS4 since launch and more than happy with it but really it's done nothing to soften the blow of the disaster which the wii u has been. I know what your saying but even so with another console I don't think we should just accept that Nintendo won't change or deliver the console we want. They shouldn't be let off the hook that easy for failing to deliver.
Retro_Link Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 The Month Of Peach came and went without so much as a whimper. What the hell was the point of it and what's next? Wild mushrooms are plentiful at this time of year. Are we going to have September as The Month Of Toad?It wasn't a Nintendo initiative at all. It was the month of the food item. Nintendo just put out their own Peach related tweet.
Fierce_LiNk Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 I have owned the PS4 since launch and more than happy with it but really it's done nothing to soften the blow of the disaster which the wii u has been. I know what your saying but even so with another console I don't think we should just accept that Nintendo won't change or deliver the console we want. They shouldn't be let off the hook that easy for failing to deliver. They haven't been let off the hook at all. The sales are arse and the third parties have gone. They've paid the price. There's not really much more that can be said about that which hasn't been said before.
Sheikah Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 What is Nintendo's current situation with Wii U? Assuming things carried on like this, getting a bit better maybe after Smash and the like, is this continued level of sales sustainable into future generations?
Wii Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 Some nice and light entertainment to try and clear the stale stinky air from this thread. TEENS REACT TO NINTENDO (NES)
Falcon_BlizZACK Posted September 7, 2014 Posted September 7, 2014 I think I'm gonna give up on reading this thread. Doesn't anyone want to talk about the elephant in the room? Theres always one particular member going ape in these forums.
Jonnas Posted September 8, 2014 Posted September 8, 2014 It wasn't a Nintendo initiative at all. It was the month of the food item. Nintendo just put out their own Peach related tweet. Seriously? Haha, that's actually strangely hilarious
Sheikah Posted September 8, 2014 Posted September 8, 2014 Doesn't anyone want to talk about the elephant in the room? Theres always one particular member going ape in these forums. Why would you do that in a topic about the Wii U?
Wii Posted September 8, 2014 Posted September 8, 2014 (edited) Doesn't anyone want to talk about the elephant in the room? Theres always one particular member going ape in these forums. Fixed for you. MIKE TYSON'S PUNCH-OUT!! (Teens React: Retro Gaming) Edited September 8, 2014 by Wii Automerged Doublepost
dazzybee Posted September 8, 2014 Posted September 8, 2014 (edited) The parallels between this thread and the PS4 one is quite humorous. In that one, it's much friendlier and it tends to be mostly about the games. Other than that, maybe info about upcoming updates, etc. This one has passed its sell-by-date long, long ago. It's basically some sort of hybrid between the Sales Discussion Thread and some sort of "Nintendo dun goof'd" discussion. I agree, it is boring and very circular. Yep. But funny it's the PS4 person who KEEPS ON DOING IT in these threads.... ZZZZZzzzz (that and any dissent gets deleted ) Anyways, that video makes me wish for another Punch Out badly... after seeing Little Mac's intro video on Smash I want a cel shaded 3DS version. Or Wii U I guess... Playing Rage of the Gladiator at the min, a great little Punch Out clone? Anyone play it on wiiware or the 3DS? Edited September 8, 2014 by lostmario Fixed quote function
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