[game thread] High Risk High Reward mafia

[Magnus Peterson]

[Rummy]

So I'm a suspect for trying NOT to lynch somebody? When we are all in exactly the same boat? Even if I was a terrorist, I wouldn't know WHO was a terrorist, and it'd make most sense for me to lynch someone as the odds means I would likely hit a town and then I should kill at night which means I'll likely hit ANOTHER town - taking out 2 towns potentially.

 

 

Instead, I'd rather NOT lynch Jimbob, but kill him in the night or see him killed - meaning to kill takes up someone's kill power.

 

 

I fail to see why I'm a suspect(but don't really care) just because I'm actually contributing some reasoning to this. None of us are making informed choices, because none of us are informed, therefore any reading into any sort of behaviour is rather useless. We gain nothing from a lynch, because again the voting isn't informed. I'm not entirely sure how we actually learn anything through this game - I'm just trying to get it thought about and discussed whilst we have a day rather than blindly lynch and end it all - but nobody seems to actually want to discuss much bar Yvonne? Peeps somewhat too.

 

Oh, and just to fit in, I suspect everyone. So that's a lot of good. I'll take a random punt at guessing whose who on the terrorist front though.

 

Cube

Yvonne

DuD

Diageo

Maybe Magnus?

 

I've actually been thinking those top three since a while ago. However it's all meaningless guesswork because we all know nothing.

Tbh I thought I'd seen people act stupidly enough in normal games; but the fact anyone thinks they can determine anything in this game at this moment when we all know nothing, and we all KNOW that we know nothing, is hilarious.

 

 

If you really want to find the terrorists; you need to look very hard at the thread - they need to secretly communicate in the open somehow to avoid killing and lynching each other. I'd wonder if it's half the people rallying around me as a 'suspect'.

 

I'd also point out another gaping hole for everyone that's lynching Jimbob on his supposed inactivity - he's been still more active than some. We've namely heard nothing today from @Jon Dedede bar a vote for Jimbob. By me not voting for Jimbob earlier, I've allowed the day to run longer - and that both gives players plenty of time to talk/contribute; and also gives us good basis to see who's really being more inactive.

 

 

For anyone apparently finding me suspicious - what exactly is it I'm suspicious or guilty of? Can you even say?

 

The only way to play this game seems to be to kill people. Either we kill people or we don't. I probably will kill someone tonight and it'll probably be a townie. I fully believe the terrorists are going to kill tonight so what are the town going to do? Use their powers at semi-random or just sit there and wait to die? We could get lucky and the terrorists will kill themselves or we could drag the game out for a few days while our numbers dwindle to nothing.

 

I'll probably kill someone I think has been laying low. I'll have a re-read of the thread at the end of the day phase and make a decision.

 

If the town don't use their kill powers they're essentially just waiting to die. There's nothing to go on in this game so it's just pot luck. Do you think you'll be killing anyone?

 

I intended to kill Jimbob if we didn't lynch him(though we will cos I'll vote for him later as I said). Otherwise I'm currently not sure. You're right when you say the only way to play seems to be to kill people - which is exactly why I think a majority of townfolk WILL kill people. There's surely some game theory application here, but I don't know much game theory and it seems to assume too much sometimes - this is very much down to individuals. Everyone in mafia tends to think they know who's who and what's what, with some certain greater offenders than others. If I kill, I join the chaos - but if everyone else is killing(which I assume at least half the players will do) - do I join in 'to get something done' before I die, or avoid it and hope that everyone else takes care of the job? The only focus I originally had for my gun was Jimbob; now I'm partial to exactly what I'm arguing - do I prefer to do nothing at night or kill someone else, given my target isn't so certain anymore?

 

 

We also have to account for the fact we don't even know what will happen tonight, might be a total spanner in the mechanics of the night phase and things'll cancel out, or there'll be limits on deaths. Given Smeagol's advice not to avoid a lynch, I reckon there's an unexpected/less obvious aspect to come.

[Magnus Peterson]

This is why game theory is taught with only two people. Add any more and it becomes chaos.

 

...Starting to understand the world a little better, now.

[Yvonne]

My suspicion for Rummy is only slight, and it's only because I couldn't follow his logic in an earlier post. All my suspicions are currently slight.

 

Game theory assumes everyone [can]/[can be bothered to] reason out what the most logical and beneficial move for each individual involved is, then make decisions based on that. It works best when everyone has the same information available.

 

The only information we each have that no one else has is our own alignment. We have the same power and we have the same vote and the same broad game knowledge. THIS is the game, I don't think there are any other mechanics, no cancelling, no protection, no nothing.

 

13 players, everyone shoots randomly

let's say 3 mafia for now and no lynch, just for argument's sake.

 

10/13 chance of hitting a townie

1-(11/12^12) chance of hitting the same target as at least one other person (65%)*

 

So in theory 1/3 of us will die, 4 or 5 people. There will probably be 1 mafia in there.

 

So if we do things randomly, it's just a simple dice game.

 

I think then the smartest thing to do is to hunt for signs of mafia trying to communicate in thread and force voting to matter and focus on flip flop behaviour.

 

 

*My maths there might be wrong, open to corrections. Hmm, this ignores people targeting the player, who is not going to target themselves. If I am alive tomorrow I will mull this over a bit more.

 

Actually here's an idea.

 

Anyone who hasn't said whether they would kill tonight:

please either say

1. I will not kill

2. I might kill

3. I will definitely kill

 

I will randomly kill from the list of people who haven't answered this question. If everyone answers, I will not kill anyone.

 

HOWS THAT FOR GAME THEORY

[Rummy]

I had a feeling that was the case. If Jimbob survives the day somehow, I'll definitely kill tonight.

 

That in itself makes me want to experience, if I don't seal his fate with a vote; and promise to kill him tonight - but then don't - will he still be killed by someone, or will others put their faith in my to do it; and use their kills elsewhere? This is why I'm keen to leave him alive.

[Diageo]

I will not kill tonight.

[Cube]

1. I will not kill tonight.

[The Peeps]

If I feel like I have a target, I'll kill tonight.

[Jonnas]

My suspicions are the same as Yvonne's, with the exception that I do not suspect Magnus or Diageo.

 

I also do not plan on killing tonight, unless Jimbob manages to survive the day.

 

NEW POST: I should be clearer. I do not suspect Diageo, while Magnus is on the "I dunno" list.

 

Just reiterating, cause Yvonne might forget it and I'm scared

[Yvonne]

If nothing changes before the end of the day, I will be killing one of the following:

 

Tales

Sheikah

Jon Dedede

DuD

Jimbob

Mr-Paul

[Mr-Paul]

I will not kill tonight. It would be a bit hypocritical seeing I'm against a lynch now if I went killing people without voting for them. No-one jumps out to me as someone I'd be willing to take a risk on yet.

[Yvonne]

@Jon Dedede

@DuD

@Jimbob

 

Repeating and mentioning so that you all have a chance to see:

 

please either say

1. I will not kill

2. I might kill

3. I will definitely kill

 

I will randomly kill from the list of people who haven't answered this question. If everyone answers, I will not kill anyone.

[Sheikah]

I won't be killing tonight.

 

That in itself makes me want to experience, if I don't seal his fate with a vote; and promise to kill him tonight - but then don't - will he still be killed by someone, or will others put their faith in my to do it; and use their kills elsewhere? This is why I'm keen to leave him alive.

 

I'm not sure I follow this - if he finds you to be one of the most suspicious players, then there's a decent chance he'll kill you tonight. By voting him out you reduce that chance somewhat.

[Magnus Peterson]

I have decided that I will not kill, tonight.

[Tales]

@Jon Dedede

@DuD

@Jimbob

 

Repeating and mentioning so that you all have a chance to see:

 

please either say

1. I will not kill

2. I might kill

3. I will definitely kill

 

I will randomly kill from the list of people who haven't answered this question. If everyone answers, I will not kill anyone.

I have principle I use in all games, not just this one: If I'm given a kill power, I will use it.

[Rummy]

I won't be killing tonight.

 

I'm not sure I follow this - if he finds you to be one of the most suspicious players, then there's a decent chance he'll kill you tonight. By voting him out you reduce that chance somewhat.

 

I know you struggle with this concept in mafias Sheikah, but sometimes it isn't all about self-interest.

 

 

Plus, every time you push me to vote for him, I want to do it even less.

[Sméagol]

[..] I reckon there's an unexpected/less obvious aspect to come.

 

Comment:

I didn’t address this earlier, because I actually did enjoy some of the speculation, but one of my goals for this game was simplicity, and as a result, transparency. I even said in the rules you should take everything in the rules at face value. This is the extreme opposite of my first game. There are no hidden things. So let me confirm once and for all to show you how high the stakes are: you shoot, you kill.

 

Comment:

Again, same vote count.

 

Vote count

 

Jimbob [6]: Cube / Diageo / Jon Dedede / Jonnas / Sheikah / DuD

Yvonne [1]: Tales

No lynch [2]: Magnus Peterson / Jimbob

Not voting [4]: The Peeps / Yvonne / Mr-Paul / Rummy

 

There are 13 active players.

Absolute majority is 7.

Majority has not been reached.

 

Deadline is 17-05-2013 00:00 CET (16-05-2013 23:00 UK).

3 hours remaining.

[Jonnas]

Ok, we have 3 hours remaining, so Yvonne, mr-paul and Peeps, if you're going to vote, don't let the deadline go through.

[DuD]

I might kill.. I have already said this before you even asked people to state anything @Yvonne

 

As it stands I'm 70% leaning to kill, and I have a target in mind.

For Rummy's piece of mind, it isn't you.

[Sheikah]

I know you struggle with this concept in mafias Sheikah, but sometimes it isn't all about self-interest.

 

 

Plus, every time you push me to vote for him, I want to do it even less.

 

Fair enough. I'm not saying you should vote him, just that if someone suspected me as Mafia I wouldn't want them to have a kill power that night.

 

I might be one of the few, but I don't see you as Mafia. I think the people who have said nothing or little are much more likely to be Mafia.

[Dedede]

I will not kill tonight.

[Rummy]

Wow, almost thought this deadline was actually midnight, not 11pm.

 

Well, as promised early on, I shall despite my potential better judgements; Vote:Jimbob.

 

Now let's see how wise a decision this really turns out to be, just for the sake of those who purported it :p

[Sméagol]

Vote count

 

Jimbob [7]: Cube / Diageo / Jon Dedede / Jonnas / Sheikah / DuD / Rummy

Yvonne [1]: Tales

No lynch [2]: Magnus Peterson / Jimbob

Not voting [3]: The Peeps / Yvonne / Mr-Paul

 

There are 13 active players.

Absolute majority is 7.

Majority has been reached.

 

Deadline is 17-05-2013 00:00 CET (16-05-2013 23:00 UK).

13 minutes remaining.

 

Request:

Some auto-merge prevention please.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Sméagol

[DuD]

----------

[Sméagol]

End of day 1

 

Final vote count

 

Jimbob [7]: Cube / Diageo / Jon Dedede / Jonnas / Sheikah / DuD / Rummy

Yvonne [1]: Tales

No lynch [2]: Magnus Peterson / Jimbob

Not voting [3]: The Peeps / Yvonne / Mr-Paul

 

There are 13 active players.

Absolute majority is 7.

Majority has been reached.

 

Casualty report

 

Jimbob - citizen - lynched

 

Start of night 1

 

There are 12 active players.

 

Deadline is 18-05-2013 00:00 CET (17-05-2013 23:00 UK)

 

[01] The Peeps

[02] Tales

[03] Yvonne

[04] Sheikah

[05] Jonnas

[06] Jon Dedede

[07] Cube

[08] DuD

[09] Jimbob - citizen - lynched

[10] Mr-Paul

[11] Rummy

[12] Diageo

[13] Magnus Peterson

 

Black denotes active players.

Grey denotes dead players.

 

 

@Jon Dedede / @Mr\-Paul / @Rummy / @Diageo / @Magnus Peterson

 

Edited May 16, 2013 by Sméagol