Video Gaming's Near Future: Optimistic or Pessimistic?

[Debug Mode]

Three bad launches.

 

The 3DS had one hell of a rocky start, but as we all know, went on to sell at a faster rate than the DS (though the rate may be slower now due to lagging interest in the European market).

 

The Playstation Vita had a pretty terrible launch, a long overdue price cut in one market which provided a small boost but neglected in the bigger markets and is still struggling to sell.

 

The Wii U has also had a pretty terrible launch and is still struggling like crazy. Looking like their might be some more rough times ahead until late this year at least.

 

So what's up? Although there's clearly a software issue with the consoles, is it just that or is there something more? There's surely something more than coincidence here.

 

It's pretty essential that launches go well and sell beyond expectations. The interest from consumers makes up for any lost revenue for negative margins, it'll hike up your share prices and get more interest from investors. But why is no one picking shit up at launch like they used to?

 

The past generation, handheld and console, has been one of the longest in the industry's history. You would have though consumers would be lapping up any advancement, but nope. Just not seeing it these days.

 

So the question is, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the near future for this industry? One thing I'm definitely curious about in peoples answers is how they think the PS4 and Xbox 2060 will fare and whether or not they're likely to follow the same pattern.

[Cube]

I'm quite pessimistic about Nintendo. While there seems to be many high quality 3DS games, fewer and fewer seems to be the kind of game I'm interested. There's very little "western" presence on it, whereas it seems like an amazing system for people who are a fan of Japanese games. Nintendo seems worried to allow the western market to influence it at all (and that was before Iwata took over NoA).

 

And until the current rumours are cleared up, and unless they've come up with some interesting new franchises (or started using Rare's). I'm incredibly tired of Halo and the last three Fable games have been rather poor. Their direction with Windows 8 seems to suggest that Microsoft are aiming for the Wii's market, with a much more casual approach. There is even a Windows 8 avert which purely advertises the fact that you can play Angry Birds on it. I think that advert perfectly sums up Microsoft's direction.

 

All my faith is in Sony, who I sometimes forget is even Japanese. They have a diverse array of big studios in Japan, USA and the UK (I was surprised about how many British people were talking at the PS4 announcement), with some strong franchises and developers who have shown that they can create new things. They also seemed to have realised that they can't compete with Nintendo and Microsoft when it comes to casual gaming so their main focus is on proper games.

[Jonnas]

Optimistic for Nintendo, because I don't think it will have any trouble in the near future. It's harsh to judge the Wii U when it hasn't shown it's full strength yet (insert DBZ joke), and the 3DS is doing just fine. I think they'll do well, and even if the Wii U doesn't, Nintendo can afford another chance.

 

I'd like to be more optimistic for Sony's future, but I can't help but feel that it's bleak. The PS3, regardless of how it was received, was a huge blow for Sony's grip on the market (seriously, going from the PS2's success to those incredible losses...), and the company is in real financial trouble in a bad economy. The fact that the Vita was a bit of a flop doesn't help matters, either.

I do hope they can rebound from this. Competition is good for the business, and Sony isn't really on the "bad" side of the industry (that's the side with EA, Microsoft and current-day Capcom, by the way)

 

And the Xbox...can go suck a lemon.

[Grazza]

I'm optimistic about the PS4 and Xbox 3 in that I think they'll sell. At least one of them will be successful, probably both. Whether we like it or not, we have to acknowledge what the market is now. People still want the latest Call of Duty, and they'll buy whatever console it's on. When Activision move it on a generation, consumers will follow, same with other publishers and their franchises.

 

I like to think I'm more of a realist than a pessimist about Nintendo. Either way, I don't see them making excellent hardware again until there's room in the market for them (ie. either Sony or Microsoft drops out), at which point I'd like to see them match their rival like they did with SNES, N64 and GameCube. Until then, it will be OK but nothing spectacular.

 

Regarding software, I'm optimistic that Nintendo can still make good games (and therefore make any of their machines worth owning), but I'm not sure if they can still make games as good as Ocarina of Time or Wind Waker.

[nekunando]

Music is in a terrible state these days.. Films have been getting worse since the 80s.. There's never anything good to watch on TV..

 

I'm pessimistic about where gaming is going, too

[Aneres11]

Interesting debate.

 

I am totally backing Nintendo as they have the know how to turn around the very bad launch of the Wii U. It's a shame that they got themselves into a position that needs to be salvaged, but hey, here we are again!

Once Nintendo go on an advertising push and they get the games that most people want out there, I think the console will sell like crazy. Even at a higher price bracket than people may like.

Although we've seen massive price cuts already from some retailers I don't think Nintendo will cut the price of the Wii U as they did with 3ds to drive sales. I also don't think they need to slash it too much (a little would be good) - just get the games out and market it correctly.

 

Sony need to take a long hard look at the what they're doing with the Vita and realise that their strategy is totally retarded. Makes me laugh that people criticise Nintendo so much for the Wii U when the Vita has been out a hell of a lot longer - and look at the state of it. You go into a games store and the Vita shelves are lined with the same games the console was launched with. Uncharted, Wipeout, Everybody's Golf and Virtua Tennis are always on the shelf. It's an absolute joke. Not to mention the price of it, plus the fact the memory cards are so expensive and you've got one marketing strategy that is beyond belief quite frankly. Say what you want about Nintendo and the Wii U (and yes, it was a terrible, terrible launch and continues to be pretty terrible), but the Vita steals the show in terms of how not to sell a console. I'm not surprised it's flopping. It's actually annoying too as I like the Vita a lot. Has a hell of a lot of potential but it just hasn't been tapped into unfortunately.

 

Regarding the 3ds it goes from strength to strength and continues to be one of my favourite ever consoles (behind the DS ) The games out for it are very divers in terms of genre and with the improved graphical leap over the DS it allows for not just the pick up and play games but also the more in depth games that you can lose hundreds of hours in (looking at you Monster Hunter). I love it.

 

As for the next XBOX - honestly, couldn't really care less. I will await what they show but I think Microsoft have well and truly destroyed what was an amazingly intuitive and well put together operating system (is that the right thing to even call it?)

When I got my 360 the menus were a breeze to get through, everything was laid out perfectly, they had video blogs from guys who worked at Microsoft (was it sent you a message or somethin?) and it was nice to actually look through the menus and explore the content within them over actually playing a game! Now, it's advert after advert after advert with terrible integration of music, films, apps and search engines. It's horrid. It's feels totally lifeless to me now and it got to the point that I changed the system settings so that the game booted up automatically when the console turned on. 2 or 3 years ago I would never have dreamed of doing that!

I don't like Kinect, and have a feeling the new xbox will be very Kinect heavy. I await to see the games they announce though as that's important to me and they could win me back with what they're offering there. Also, I still feel like their online services are absolutely spot on and am happy to pay for them yearly as I do now - providing the rest of the 'xbox package' is appealing enough.

 

PS4 - well the intro to it didn't blow me away. I feel like we haven't even seen anything yet. There was a lot of 'should be able to' and 'we hope to bring you'... Right well when you know, say it then.

The PS3 was the least appealing of the bunch for me last gen and I used mine for 2 things. Uncharted. And Blu-Ray player. Until I got a BRP free with my TV - then it became a dust collector. Sony's 'core' franchises didn't grab me. Little Big Planet was just a level creator which bored me after a bit, Infamous was too open worldy and I didn't enjoy the first game enough to warrant playing the second and uncharted 3 was very meh.

I always bought multiplatform games on the 360 as I personally enjoyed achievements in most games and the Trophy system was no where near up to the same polish as achievements.

 

I remain optimistic about all the consoles we currently have and are getting though. All of these companies have been around long enough to know what is going wrong and how to fix it - I sure hope they do anyway!

But yeah I think the battle of the xbox and ps4 will be interesting. I don't factor Nintendo into it at all really as they have always done their own thing and generally tend to cater to a different market these days. They may have some competition this time around though in their casual market from Microsoft depending on the route they choose to take.

[Daft]

Infamous was too open worldy and I didn't enjoy the first game enough to warrant playing the second

 

That just made me physically ill.

[Aneres11]

That just made me physically ill.

 

With you having such a strong love for Sony - I'm not surprised.

[Daft]

Wow, yet another reminder why I try to avoid the Nintendo Board.

[Debug Mode]

Try and keep fanboyism to a minimum in this thread guys This board is supposed to be the middle ground and the question isn't asking about your views on specific companies (because the rose tinted glasses come out in full force when that happens), but the industry as a whole. I think the only exception to that request is the likely crack down on used games.

 

Sony has practically confirmed the PS4 will use it in some way, Microsoft is rumoured to go full on pants on head retarded.

Edited May 6, 2013 by Debug Mode

[Dcubed]

For the most part, I feel nothing but pessimism. The industry (or at least the tradidional side of it) is set on a path of destruction and the concept of "gameplay" is getting shown the door as most "core" orientated retail games are becoming nothing more than quasi interactive movies that either play themselves or feature such little player agency that they might as well do so.

 

"AAA" gaming as the industry refers to it is dead to me. I couldn't give a toss about most big budget titles (barring a few exceptions like Nintendo and Platinum's output - as well as the occasional Capcom game, when the corporate suits aren't messing up everything of course...). Same shit, new shiny coat of paint

 

The loss of the "mid-tier" game was the worst thing to happen to the industry. No longer do creative gems like Katamari Demacy have a place on our shelves now (and no, XBLA/PSN is not a viable substitute as downward pressure on prices has forced them to slash their budgets to compensate)

 

Speaking of which, that's another thing that has been destroyed by the rise of the "AAA" game. XBLA & PSN started off as a real save haven for indie developers; a brave new frontier for them. Fast forward to today and it is now largely the playground of the established publishers and the "B tier" titles that might otherwise have been released at retail. As a result, indie devs have completely given up on XBLA (and to a lesser extent PSN) - forced to go PC only (though thankfully Nintendo's own eShop seems to have not fallen to the same fate and is actually looking to be a popular choice with indie devs, so that's a good sign at least )

 

In terms of the long-term health of the industry, again I feel reason to be pessimistic. Wii U has flopped out of the gates, Vita was DOA and the PS4 and Durango are set to be high priced consoles (probably $500 ish) in a weak economy, that are going up against their established predecessors that; largely offering the same games and experiences. The difference in graphics isn't even that noticeable for the average joe and neither console really seems to be breaking much new ground, so why bother upgrading when they don't offer anything new? It's not like the next COD, GTA or FiFa is exclusive to them.

 

And it becomes all the fouler when you consider the implications of the Durango being always online. It's actively destructive to the historical archiving of games as they will all become coasters when the servers get shut offline. It's tantamount to book burning! (and I'm sure that a good chunk of PS4 games will also suffer the same fate at the publishers' request - for the sake of "parity" )

 

Perhaps that's what this industry needs though? A good crash and a swift kick up the arse!

Edited May 6, 2013 by Dcubed

[Mokong]

I'm not gonna try look too far into my own crystal ball to try to see where the future of the industry is going. At least not until after both the NeXbox (I just thought of that, ) and PS4 are out.

 

Mainly because I'm very curious how those launches are going to go. Granted MS haven't shown anything yet on their new system but safe to say they are prolly gonna be close to the PS4 when it comes to specs. And having 2 "fairly similar" consoles launch around the same time with likely a similar line up of titles (3rd party at least) could see things go very south for one of them.

 

The key will be the price, assuming both launch within say a couple of weeks of each other and both launch with similar 3rd Party titles and I'm looking at the so called "core" titles of Call of Duty and FIFA and such which get there yearly updates round that same time of year. If there is a sizable price difference (I'd say 50euro or more as that would then equate to being able to get another game) the cheaper one will likely be the one selling at a fairly faster rate than the other. This could leave the more expensive one in a bad situation possibly even worse than the Wii U currently finds itself in.

 

If however both consoles launch at the same (or reletively negligible difference) price then that will be very interesting... with both launches round the same time those who own both current systems from MS and Sony are unlikely to buy both new systems at the same time and pending on price (which seems to be expected to be higher than the Wii U launched at) could both systems find themselves hurt a bit (or a lot), sales wise in that situation?

 

 

On Nintendo's front, sure things aren't great for the Wii U at the moment and their policy of deafening silience isn't helping, but with E3 coming soon, dispite the lack of a live presser I'm hoping they have a good plan that will drive up interest and hype. And we are getting indications that they are planning a sizable software line-up for the 2nd half of 2013 to help drive sales up similar to what they did with the 3DS. Even though they probably want to avoid it I am hoping for a price drop too, even though I already own a Wii U (and love it BTW) I'm just hoping for one in hopes they do an Ambassabor program on the Wii U like they did with the 3DS

 

The 3DS continues to go from strength to strength in the face of the much touted "smartphone/tablet" market that many thought would negate the videogame handheld market but the 3DS has shown that PROPER handheld gaming isn't going to be drowned out so easily. Hopefully Nintendo can pull the Wii U out of the fire but its amazing they even found themselves in the same situation again. Even if they couldn't revive the Wii U I doubt we would see them leave the hardware market after this new generation.

 

By the start of 2014 we'll be seeing some sort of picture which may indicate where the industry is going as a whole. 2 things will help paint that picture.

1: How well the "same time" launch of 2 new consoles goes for either or both

2: If Nintendo's "2nd half of 2013" plan for the Wii U works

 

EDIT:

 

Oh FYI I might rip this thread for a Roundtable feature for the mainsite in a week or two, very good topic Debug Mode

Edited May 6, 2013 by Mokong
Automerged Doublepost

[Debug Mode]

No problem Mokong, I'm glad you found it interesting!

[Mokong]

No problem Mokong, I'm glad you found it interesting!

 

Cheers... oh and just realised I said "in a day or two" I meant "week or two" as I only just upped a Roundtable the other day, haha

[Cube]

XBLA & PSN started off as a real save haven for indie developers; a brave new frontier for them. Fast forward to today and it is now largely the playground of the established publishers and the "B tier" titles that might otherwise have been released at retail. As a result, indie devs have completely given up on XBLA (and to a lesser extent PSN) - forced to go PC only (though thankfully Nintendo's own eShop seems to have not fallen to the same fate and is actually looking to be a popular choice with indie devs, so that's a good sign at least )

 

I'd say the complete opposite. XBLA, PSN and WiiWare all started off for smaller games from known developers - Microsoft bunged most indie stuff under another name (I'm not even sure it even exists). However, there have been lots of indie games recently on PlayStation - and Sony have been giving some of them a big spotlight.

 

The Vita has become a great platform for indie developers (with some games - like Retro City Rampage - selling best on Vita, followed by PS3), and the Google Play-style open store on the PS4 (with no charges for updates and ability to make their own sales) will be amazing. Not to mention that some have the opportunity to show off their game to many players if they're chosen for PlayStation Plus.

 

I don't think indie gaming has ever been stronger on consoles, and it will continue to rise. I can see Microsoft missing it - but Nintendo and Sony know what to do with it.

[Happenstance]

Sony need to take a long hard look at the what they're doing with the Vita and realise that their strategy is totally retarded. Makes me laugh that people criticise Nintendo so much for the Wii U when the Vita has been out a hell of a lot longer - and look at the state of it. You go into a games store and the Vita shelves are lined with the same games the console was launched with. Uncharted, Wipeout, Everybody's Golf and Virtua Tennis are always on the shelf. It's an absolute joke. Not to mention the price of it, plus the fact the memory cards are so expensive and you've got one marketing strategy that is beyond belief quite frankly. Say what you want about Nintendo and the Wii U (and yes, it was a terrible, terrible launch and continues to be pretty terrible), but the Vita steals the show in terms of how not to sell a console. I'm not surprised it's flopping. It's actually annoying too as I like the Vita a lot. Has a hell of a lot of potential but it just hasn't been tapped into unfortunately.

 

To be fair we can see that Sony already started working to turn the Vita around. At the moment its basically becoming some kind of Indie game device and if they can continue to make the deals theyve been getting lately for it then it might be able to carve out a section of the market for itself. Plus we know its planning on being linked a lot more with the PS4 in quite a few ways, including some which would basically turn it into a Wii U pad.

 

 

 

The PS4 is the only home console at the moment im optimistic about. I like Sony's approach to gaming and they seem to have been saying and doing all the right things in my eyes with the PS4.

 

Microsoft I wont make my decision on until after the unveiling but its looking very doubtful I would buy their next console. I havent liked the way theyve been taking things in years with the 360 with the dashboard designs and hiding services they shouldnt behind the Gold barrier.

 

Nintendo I'll stick with with the 3DS but as those who read in the Wii U thread, I sold my Wii U the other week and couldnt have been happier that. I should never have bought one and even if it has a stellar E3 and announces loads of games, I think it will continue to struggle.

[Aneres11]

I think when the Vita's price is dropped and when they include a memory card rather than make you pay for one, then I will think they are turning it around. It still needs to be put out there a bit more. Like I say I think it's a shame as it has great potential. Sony could do with shouting about it a bit more but I have a feeling it may be overshadowed a bit by the upcoming PS4.

Unless of course they really hit home how it will integrate with the PS4 which will make it appealing to more people. Have to wait and see I guess but a price drop is definitely needed.

Oh and @Daft - I was only jokin there I didn't mean that comment in a 'you're a fanboy' way but it does come across that way and also pretty dickish so apologies.

Edited May 6, 2013 by Aneres11

[Daft]

I'm an Infamous fanboy. It's my favourite new IP this generation. Uncharted, and everything else, can suck it.

[LukeLee]

Generally, i feel quite negative about the future of the industry.

 

Watching the PS4 unveiling, i felt annoyed and insulted by one of the promotional comments "The only limitation is the developers imagination"...... because games are free to fund and develop??

 

In the current generation, AAA titles are already costing a fortune to develop, we have seen many studios become victim and close down. But it also sets up an expectation with many consumers, who expect a similar production value with other games they buy. So imagine how this situation will be next generation - consumers won't want to pay more for their games, which will cost much more to make.

 

Regarding the PS4. I wasn't overly impressed, still feel there are too many questions. I expect it'll come with a hefty price tag. I originally bought a PS3 over an xbox360 because i wanted a blu ray player and at that time, a standalone blu ray player wasn't much cheaper than a PS3. I can't say the choice will be as obvious this time.

 

For the next xbox. Hard to say anything when nothing has been revealed. But I have always been against the Live memberships. Maybe because Nintendo and Sony have spoilt me with free online play. But Live is such a cash cow, I just don't see that stopping.

 

I imagine the next xbox and PS4 having high retail prices. Of course, there will be early adopters, but will families and casual buyers jump ship as quick? I'm not sure. Also, I think "serious" gamers / graphics sensitive gamers (where price tag isn't off putting) will continue moving over to PC gaming.

 

Personally, for me, I am on a reasonable wage, but I won't be rushing to get either, its just too much money at a time when money is tight and the future is uncertain jobwise. Also, maybe I am in a minority, but I have never looked at games like; Skyrim, Red Dead Redemption, Tomb Raider and thought to myself; "This game looks bad, it needs better graphics". The only area I felt consoles really needed to improve upon was the online infrastructure, so that big MMORGs like World of Warcraft were playable on a console.

[Cube]

Also, maybe I am in a minority, but I have never looked at games like; Skyrim, Red Dead Redemption, Tomb Raider and thought to myself; "This game looks bad, it needs better graphics".

 

After playing it on the PC, the hair in the console version looks shockingly bad. So static and lifeless.

 

I think hair and clothing are two aspects that will be improved upon with the extra power, as well as more physics-based animation and allowing for much more interactive environments (the latter one being something that can also greatly benefit gameplay).

[Rummy]

Personally I'm a little pessimistic at the moment. For the future of everyone. I think it all comes back to money, too. Price of games, price of devlopment, projection of sales etc. It's grown out of control at a ridiculous rate, and it just can't be sustained. The economy isn't great, consumers have less money/willingness to spend it; the faster drop in price of games to shift them re-inforces not buying new; a clamp on pre-owned probably won't help either. The Wii U hasn't done great, and I don't see 720 or PS4 doing good either unless they are released at ridiculous prices, which they won't be. Top that off with a fracturing of markets by a number of devs supporting 360+PS3 as well as 720+PS4 with the same games; I don't see there being enough reason for a while for many folks to want to drop the cash on next gen. This isn't the days of Sonic vs Mario - these days it doesn't matter what you own; you'll get most of the games either way.

 

I think the industry is out of control, and in a dangerous state; it needs a fresh approach from someone - I'm just hoping it might be Nintendo.

[Cube]

Price of games

 

I never got this complaint. Retail games are cheaper than they used to be and there are many people opting for cheaper, digital releases.

[Serebii]

Absolutely pessimistic.

 

Gaming is stagnated. They've gone for a severe lossleading approach that gaming only hardware makers can't keep up with, since it'd bankrupt them. Development costs for games have also skyrocketed, with many games having to reach 5m units just to break even, which is not that common. Many developers have folded.

 

As such, risks are seldom being taken. Nintendo try to take risks, but because they cannot follow the "Let's put this power on it, times it by 20 and sell it for $300 loss" approach that Microsoft and Sony are, developers aren't bothering with them, especially as third party developers often state they can't compete with Nintendo's own games.

 

I look at the PS4, and the jump isn't as big as I'd like and that will likely also be considered by the general public. Hell, my brother even said it and he's a bloody game developer.

 

Games are just going to stagnate, it's the same shit over and over and even Nintendo has fallen into this somewhat, in their attempt to keep making money. They at least try to make the games different when they're sequels (New Super Mario Bros series notwithstanding). I played through Halo 4 recently and it was just so blah. It all felt like I've done it before. Go to an area, oh look a dozen small guys and a couple big guys...get rid of them, move down the stage a bit more...oh look, a dozen small guys and a couple big guys. I used to love the Halo series, but it's now dead to me.

 

All I am seeing with these new game announcements is the same stuff over and over, typically utilising guns, and I am sick of it.

 

Gaming as an industry will collapse if something isn't done soon. Microsoft and Sony have done potentially irreparable damage to the industry by pushing the lossleading approach so much.

Edited May 8, 2013 by Serebii

[Guy]

Good thing we all have hundreds of great games from previous systems to enjoy if current gaming goes to hell.

[Sheikah]

I think when the Vita's price is dropped and when they include a memory card rather than make you pay for one, then I will think they are turning it around. It still needs to be put out there a bit more. Like I say I think it's a shame as it has great potential. Sony could do with shouting about it a bit more but I have a feeling it may be overshadowed a bit by the upcoming PS4.

Unless of course they really hit home how it will integrate with the PS4 which will make it appealing to more people. Have to wait and see I guess but a price drop is definitely needed.

Oh and @Daft - I was only jokin there I didn't mean that comment in a 'you're a fanboy' way but it does come across that way and also pretty dickish so apologies.

 

The Vita already costs less than the 3DS XL, which is amazing considering the spec of the device. The problem isn't the price of the console, it's that not enough games have come yet. The memory card cost is also pretty steep.