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Iun

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Everything posted by Iun

  1. Iun

    Obama Wins!

    Here's how it goes: Like it or not, we are starting to move away from a unipolar economic world - the US and the US Dollarhave enjoyed complete economic dominance over the financial markets and indeed a degree of politically-linked economics. The US had been ale to dominate the system through the ubiquity of the dollar, the relative stability of the currency and confidence in the American market. Ow ever, a lot of these factors changed with the global recession: faith has been lost in American banks, growth has gone from decline to snails-pace recovery and perceptions of growing US national debt has led to less confidence in the American monetary system. It's still viable to peg your currency to the dollar, and most international transactions are still carried out in dollars. For example, although I bought my plane ticket in China and the price on the website was shown in RMB, the card issuing Chinese bank converted the transaction into dollars for actual payment. China, on the other hand, has been on the ascent for the last ten years or so: the political system is abhorrent and would disgust most of us if we were to live under it - the rule of law is not respected, the constitution as set out in 1949 is mostly disregarded and there is only one source of information: the Government. Imagine a country where the police can arrest you because you wanted to complain to your local representative about the forced demolition of your property; you will be denied legal assistance, there will be no due process and the entirety of your family could be punished as well. Juxtapose this with the fact that if you are rich enough, or have friends within the local political apparatus, you can literally get away with murder, massive fraud and any other crime that would see you prisoner for the rest of your life if you committed it in the UK. However, despite the disgusting nature of this political system, one thing it does give is relative stability. The markets are still affected by global trends, but the state here is rich enough to pump cash into massive stimulus projects that keep people employed, companies producing goods and the general populace satisfied that things are actually being done. China is still a developing country, but it's model of welcoming huge amounts of foreign investments with big tax breaks (or no tax at all) cheap labour and almost carte blanche to do your most polluting and dangerous production in the country without any worries. China's business model of export-led growth has seen the country's economy enjoy double-digit growth almost every year in recent memory, when you consider that most European nations can muster about 2% growth and be considered successful, figures of 10% or if her are absolutely staggering. Labour here is so cheap and so plentiful that most factory works earn the equivalent of £150 a month. The domestic stability that the state can enforce through the police and military is barbaric, but at the very least reliable. As the Partyis not elected through any direct means, it gauges its success through economic growth and the number of citizens living above the poverty line. Economic growth is paramount, and they will take ANY steps necessary to safeguard that including mass arrests, coercive pressure on regional neighbours and withholding support in international fora until other states cave in. China is now in some ways bankrolling the world - I'm sure you've heard that China owns 27% of America's foreign owned debt, which in the grand scheme of America's actual debt is a minority, but it's still an uncomfortable situation to be in. Though as yet, China has not been able to translate her economic power into political power over the US, it hasn't stopped them from bringing smaller nations into line: pacific island states and a number of African nations have been bullied (and that is the correct term) into accepting certain domestic political concessions in return for investment. Now, the handover is in progress. What does this mean? Well, the watchword of the Hu administration has been "harmony" i.e. government-approved stability, at the barrel of a gun when necessary. The incoming administration is going to inherit a robust economy (still enjoying 7% growth) and a low-level of foreign held debt as well as a confident domestic market. Nonetheless, there are some challenges: the export-led economy cannot go on forever without the majority of the nation being kept in perpetual poverty. House prices have skyrocketed in the last three years -my home doubled in value in about 8 months, meaning that housing is completely out of reach of something like 80% of people. What affordable ousting that is constructed is often ought through various means by the wealthy and then leased-out at market prices which most can't afford. It's not unusual to have three or four families living out of two bedrooms and a living room in order to survive. All the while, the middle class is becoming more prosperous. Now, the middle class has historically been the cause of most revolutions and trouble, and that's a big fear. Post Tiananmen Square Massacre, the government made an unspoken agreement with the population: don't do it again and we will make you rich. Well, the middle class are ow rich and they are looking for more rights - they have all the money they want, now they would like to have more than NE child (in China, families are only allowed one child, and in rural areas families that break this law can be forced into sort ions and even sterilised by the government) they will want the right to choose their leaders and more say in domestic and international affairs. China's growth has put the wind up regional neighbours, traditionally aligned with the US. While the UD is likely to dominate militarily for the next 20 years, neighbours such as Japan, Singapore and the ROK are aware that Cona's coercive attempts to bring them into its way of going are one day going to end up becoming military attempts to dominate them. China, with a focus on harmony and stability WILL NOT accept neighbours that are going to stymie or resist her influence. There's no question that China has ambitions to become the regional hegemon, and neighbours are starting to balance militarily against that happening. The result of that is that China is becoming more aggressive to stop them from challenging its power in the region. It's a no-win situation - unless you are willing to kowtow. Historically, most Asian states were client states or vassals to China, and the Party certainly would have no objection to returning to that status quo. The incoming administration, it is hoped, are going to be reformers. They will have to tackle difficulties with changing the economy from export-driven to consumer driven. But that presents a huge problem in that Chinese consumers are generally too poor to consume the kind of quantities necessary for this transition. If you take Japan as an example, their goods are extremely high-end and expensive, but the consumers are wealthy enough to afford them. China is an integral part of the world economy, and this change is biiiiig.
  2. Iun

    Obama Wins!

    Alright,I'll give you a rundown on the Chinese leadership change tomorrow when I am awake again. Remind me, yeah?
  3. As I write, Barack Obama has just passed the 275 mark - he needed 270 to win. So, what are your thoughts, N-Europe? Four more years of mediocrity? Better the Devil You Know? or does Obama still stand for Hope and Change?
  4. Flink, I loved that post, and this is going to sound weird... But I actually enjoyed reading about it more than I would physically being there. I hate rollercoasters and anything that suspends me upside down, but I do love the theming and logistics that go into these places. So a genuine thanks for a very interesting read, it's gotten me a bit more hyped for a new Rollercoaster Tycoon on the 3DS.
  5. Iun

    Iron Man 3

    I'm looking forward to this, but not because of the trailer... But:
  6. 1: I will hunt you down. 2: I will tie you to a chair. Maybe I will even tie you to Chair. 3: I will select my best glove. 4: I will slap you silly. Then there will be ice cream and possibly fudge cake with hugs, but first things first, I will make you repent that nonsense you just spouted. Episode 1 was entertaining for Darth Maul and the two major fights. Episode 2 was great if you watched only the opening scroll and the final credits. Episode 3 was the cinematic equivalent of eating a placenta: you can say you did it, and then you never, ever have to do it again. Both Episode 2 and 3 were ruined -RUINED- by the so-called acting of Hayden Christensen. Anakin Skywalker: I love your planet it's so lush and fertile (like your norks) Padme: Yes. Anakin Skywalker: Not like my planet, where it's all sandy and gets in your crack *awkward touch implying he'd like to get in her crack*
  7. ... How many little girls have screamed themselves moist over that, I wonder?
  8. That's exactly the kind of comment some smart-aleck effeminate Twilight-watcher would come up with. Should I get you a nice skirt for your next birthday or would you just like the whole box set on Blu Ray?
  9. Haha.... You have all watched Twilight... I'm 100% more masculine than every one of you.
  10. Just get a t-shirt printed with "New Matrix Sequel In The Pipeline!" and that'll be plenty scary.
  11. I'm just going to put o my body armour, sunglasses and a pair of Hawaiian shorts and pretend to be a twat. I'm surprisingly good at it.
  12. Yeah, but you gotta have the right bait, and it's no good wiggling your maggot out there when everyone else is rocking a python.
  13. ....mmm.... No. Me thinks with liberally applied date rape drugs, I can have you out of the restaurant before you've even finished a breadstick. Net cost to me: two taxi rides.
  14. It seemed like a completely reasonable argument to me. Alright, it was put rather offensively, but pretty much everything he said was fairly accurate.
  15. Iun

    Meh. I've been stockpiling Coke, Sprite and Mountain Dew - everyone else is hoarding water. I figure that when the smoke clears everyone will be sick to death of water, so I've got plenty to trade. :D

  16. To be honest guys, this "most 16 year olds are idiots" argument doesn't hold water: virtually everybody is a fuckwit to me, and if it was my decision, only certain people would be allowed to vote. In fact, if I ever seize power in a bloody coup I will make sure that anybody black, white, rich, poor, stupid, really stupid, taller than a horse, shorter than a horse, about the same size as a horse, male, female, senile, possibly senile, randomly accused of being senile, horny, perpetually not horny, gay, straight, transgender or bi-curious would not be allowed to vote, ever.
  17. The "More Candy Before Mealtimes" Party has my vote and always will.
  18. I think there's truth in what you're saying there - but there's always the risk, especially for small business owners. There is an adjustment period for new parents, naturally your life is never going to be the same again.
  19. The simple answer is yes, the complicated answer is to do with GDP, disposable income and viability of product within the territory. The average salary in Shanghai is about £400 per month, over approximately half of which goes on rent, bills, food and travel -that's a generous estimate. The remainder has to cover absolutely everything else - savings, sending/giving money to family, clothes... Doesn't leave a great deal of room for disposable income. Furthermore, North America (USA & Canada), Europe and Japan essentially make up the majority of what is considered to be the developed world: statistics here are more reliable, sales figures more accurate and income better suited to the purchase of luxury items.
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