some mafia

[Sheikah]

I was thinking the same thing about you. Either you're mafia, or you're playing poorly as town.

 

Anyway, I'm leaning towards Sheikah, The Peeps and potentially ReZoureman for the mafia.

 

If you are actually town, and by some miracle Jonnas is, then you have nobody to blame for you and Jonnas's vendetta against me. If you go to such lengths with such crappy reasoning (like saying I won't go through with my plan, which is a lie) to try and lynch a townie then that townie is going to try and lynch you. That's why you'll get no forgiveness.

 

Of course I'm placing my chip on the tile that says you're Mafia so hopefully no disdain will be getting dished out.

[Cube]

I never asked for forgiveness. If you happen to turn out town, then I certainly wouldn't be blaming myself.

 

Gut feeling and hunches, to me, is better than random chance now that we actually have something to base it on.

[The Peeps]

I'm thinking the mafia don't want the lynches to be out of their control tbh. The way we're doing it has a good chance of getting one of them lynched before too late. Cube the only reason you have to be suspicious of myself, Sheikah and ReZourceman is that we're going along with this plan. I'm curious as to why you don't think Rummy is suspicious too as he's followed it along as much as anyone else. I'm suspicious of anyone who is trying to orchestrate a lynch given that we have no information to go on. I think the mafia are scared of this plan and are the ones trying to talk us out of it.

[Jonnas]

From the mafia's perspective, this plan has been great: two townies lynched with a third one on the way. They only need to lynch 4.

 

Mind you, when my lynch comes through and I do appear as town, Sheikah is lynched either way. We're both going down, and I can only hope Sheikah really is mafia, and not a misguided townie.

 

This plan was perfect in bringing down Tales and Shorty, the latter of which was lynched while people were openly suspecting me and Sheikah. One of us should've been lynched yesterday, instead of Shorty. We would've made far better progress instead of mindlessly voting for Shorty because that's what the plan said. We would've had something far more tangible to work on than "Just following the RNG".

[Cube]

I'm thinking the mafia don't want the lynches to be out of their control tbh.

 

Exactly my thinking. As long as we keep rolling the RNG on a townie, this method is entirely in the hands of the mafia.

 

From what I understood, the plan was to do the RNG once, and then base it on patterns.

[Sheikah]

 

This plan was perfect in bringing down Tales and Shorty

 

Way to totally undo your team by lying.

 

Tales preceded the plan - his suggestion for lynch was performed before the plan came in - ie. his name was not suggested by a confirmed townie using a RNG.

 

So all in all, not a watertight Mafia plan whatsoever. In fact, simple calculation will tell you that:

 

- In a 9 player situation with 3 Mafia (ie. start of plan on D2), the chance of randomly hitting Mafia is 3/9 aka 33%.

 

- Continue the plan to the next day (ie. lynching Jonnas, today) and the random chance we hit Mafia is 3/8. Aka 37.5%.

 

In total, over just 2 days the combined chance of hitting scum is therefore 70.5%.

 

In a game where Mafia losing 2 players results in their loss, a plan that offers a 70.5% chance of killing one of them in 2 days is, frankly, retarded. No Mafioso would suggest this plan, and no Mafia would want to follow it.

 

Exactly my thinking. As long as we keep rolling the RNG on a townie, this method is entirely in the hands of the mafia.

 

Yes, the game is entirely in the hands of the Mafia. Not at all the townies suggesting the RNG targets.

 

The plan will effectively disband after a lynch of Jonnas anyway so this is by no means 'the plan of the game'. If Jonnas flips scum, his RNG target should he provide one will effectively be worthless.

[The Peeps]

I feel like we don't need to base it on patterns because Jonnas is the next target anyway and he's the most suspicious in my eyes. If Shorty had RNG'd someone else I might've been more willing to step off the plan tbh... but Jonnas may not have tried to sway the voting at that point so maybe I would've still stuck with it, who can say :p

 

Also you say as long as we keep the RNG rolling on a townie but there's no way to know until we've lynched them. Do you think it'll hit a townie every time? It's not in the mafia's hands, it's in luck's hands :p

[bob]

Can I just say that this game is miles better than all the other mafias with their pointless rules and strange superpowers. Fun to watch.

[Mr-Paul]

Wow, this has moved quickly since I last looked this morning. As I said before, I think Jonnas is acting the most suspiciously and that's where my vote is going, along with the fact Shorty gave him as his random target. I tried looking at who has voted for the lynches but to be honest, we can't really learn anything from them if it is random selection. Yes, there should be mafia voting for dead townies, but equally, they might be opposing the lynch as they know someone is town but will get lynched anyway (especially with the inactivity vote from Yvonne speeding things up!)

 

It's hard to get a good read of players in this. Rummy is staying very quiet, as is ReZ, which makes me suspicious of them. But Jonnas has stuck out for a while. I guess its Sheikah after him but its clear that choice of target from Jonnas isn't random :p

 

Vote: Jonnas

[Rummy]

What is there for me to say? I said from the beginning I liked the plan, and I would go with the plan, and thus I am! I find the three current votes for Sheikah interesting though, especially depending on the Jonnas flip. Whilst I'm glad to be voting Jonnas for his behaviour, I'm actually voting because it was Shorty's RNG claim.

 

I feel like we don't need to base it on patterns because Jonnas is the next target anyway and he's the most suspicious in my eyes. If Shorty had RNG'd someone else I might've been more willing to step off the plan tbh... but Jonnas may not have tried to sway the voting at that point so maybe I would've still stuck with it, who can say :p

 

Also you say as long as we keep the RNG rolling on a townie but there's no way to know until we've lynched them. Do you think it'll hit a townie every time? It's not in the mafia's hands, it's in luck's hands :p

 

What are the real odds of continually hitting all town? They need town down to...3? We started with...10; 3 mafia and 7 town. We've so far lost 2 town, so that's 5 town left and 3 mafia right? If Jonnas is mafia we're in quite a good position, only needing to find one more mafia.

 

Odds of hitting all towns and losing would be...(7/10 x 6/9 x 5/8 x 4/7=840/5040=1/6?). 16% chance of hitting no mafias at all? We've already started on the path though, so I'd continue.

[Yvonne]

votes:

4 - Jonnas (Rummy, Sheikah, The Peeps, Mr-Paul)

3 - Sheikah (Cube, Jimbob, Jonnas)

 

Not voting:

ReZourceman

 

Majority is 5.

Current lynch target is Jonnas.

 

living 8: (5 town, 3 mafia)

Cube

Mr-Paul

Jonnas

Rummy

The Peeps

Sheikah

ReZourceman

Jimbob

 

dead 2: (2 town)

Shorty

Tales

 

Deadline is 11am Thursday 3rd July.

[Jonnas]

So all in all, not a watertight Mafia plan whatsoever. In fact, simple calculation will tell you that:

 

- In a 9 player situation with 3 Mafia (ie. start of plan on D2), the chance of randomly hitting Mafia is 3/9 aka 33%.

 

- Continue the plan to the next day (ie. lynching Jonnas, today) and the random chance we hit Mafia is 3/8. Aka 37.5%.

 

In total, over just 2 days the combined chance of hitting scum is therefore 70.5%.

 

In a game where Mafia losing 2 players results in their loss, a plan that offers a 70.5% chance of killing one of them in 2 days is, frankly, retarded. No Mafioso would suggest this plan, and no Mafia would want to follow it.

 

Brush up your statistics, the actual percentage is 58,33% (3/9 + (6/9)*(3/8)).

 

But it doesn't matter. The game of mafia never submits to those cold rules. Considering, like you say, they lynched Tales knowing Shorty was up next, then those 58,33% become 37,5%.

 

And if their goal was to set up a defence in case Shorty named a mafioso, then that number doesn't really matter anymore.

 

Yes, the game is entirely in the hands of the Mafia. Not at all the townies suggesting the RNG targets.

 

The plan will effectively disband after a lynch of Jonnas anyway so this is by no means 'the plan of the game'. If Jonnas flips scum, his RNG target should he provide one will effectively be worthless.

 

The game is always in the hands of every player. It's the mafia's choice to defend teammates or not, it's the mafia's choice to go through with the RNG or not. If the the RNG helps them, not a peep is heard, and if it doesn't, they argue against the plan.

 

Putting your trust in an utterly cold, random environment is naive. The town is here to notice it and make sure the mafia doesn't influence results like that, and right now, this "Jonnas or Sheikah" debate is the first time in the game where the town really is voting with the proper mindset (their gut and instinct).

 

And my choice for next lynch is you, if you missed it. If I do flip town (and I will), it doesn't really matter if it came from the RNG or not, does it? It was a townie who chose it, after all.

 

Regardless, you will be voted regardless of the plan, much like there are people right now voting for me because they genuinely suspect me.

[The Peeps]

And my choice for next lynch is you, if you missed it. If I do flip town (and I will), it doesn't really matter if it came from the RNG or not, does it? It was a townie who chose it, after all.

 

Actually yes it does matter. If everyone picks randomly, we know our targets have come from a trustworthy source. We're not saying it guarantees catching a mafia every time because clearly it doesn't. What it does do is make sure that our next target is coming from somewhere devoid of outside influence.

 

If you pick your target based on suspicions, you could be wrong. You can interpret things wrong and get a townie lynched because of your own bias which is worse than getting a townie lynched based on cold, random numbers. If you've based your vote on your own bias and get a townie lynched, that's on you. You can then dwell on what might have happened if you had picked randomly.

[Sheikah]

But it doesn't matter. The game of mafia never submits to those cold rules. Considering, like you say, they lynched Tales knowing Shorty was up next, then those 58,33% become 37,5%.

At the point the plan was suggested, the plan was in favour of a Mafia lynch within two days. You're even agreeing on that, as you returned a value of nearly 60%. That's why it's a pretty stupid plan for a Mafioso to suggest.

 

It also eliminates Mafia interference as your three votes don't count for toffee if the whole of town votes you based on RNG. I don't even need to defend my lynch of you, as your name was put forward by a confirmed townie.

[ReZourceman]

I would like to address peoples fears of my quietness - I have simply not had much to add at this stage. I have total belief in the plan.

 

The people I find suspicious are anyone AGAINST the plan. Up until the point that we hit a mafia, I don't really see how much at all can be gained by behaviours, then we can go back, look at claims/backings up or avoidance of voting particular individuals.

 

If Jonnas is lynched and Jonnas refused to RNG someone, that's when it will get "interesting" #Monica

 

Vote : Jonnas

[The Peeps]

Jonnas says his choice is Sheikah. I don't think it was RNG.

[Jonnas]

@ReZourceman: You say you have faith in the plan, while at the same time entertaining the thought that it stops dead in its tracks if somebody refuses to give a name. It's funny.

 

Which I didn't. I did suggest Sheikah.

 

Actually yes it does matter. If everyone picks randomly, we know our targets have come from a trustworthy source. We're not saying it guarantees catching a mafia every time because clearly it doesn't. What it does do is make sure that our next target is coming from somewhere devoid of outside influence.

 

If you pick your target based on suspicions, you could be wrong. You can interpret things wrong and get a townie lynched because of your own bias which is worse than getting a townie lynched based on cold, random numbers. If you've based your vote on your own bias and get a townie lynched, that's on you. You can then dwell on what might have happened if you had picked randomly.

 

The whole reasoning behind it had to do with "Tales was town, this is how we know Shorty's lynch was not suggested by the mafia". If the lynched player is town, it was not suggested by the mafia.

 

If I pick my target based on RNG I can also be wrong. 57% wrong. Tales' choice was 62,5% wrong. And if I get a townie lynched due to my own bias, that's still a better reasoning than to keep trusting numbers below 50% (because that's what you're doing every day. That's what the odds are every day).

 

And I'm far more comfortable knowing that someone I got lynched was town, than picking somebody at utterly random. Picking the latter is just pretending I didn't have a hand in their lynch.

[Yvonne]

votes:

5 - Jonnas (Rummy, Sheikah, The Peeps, Mr-Paul, ReZourceman)

3 - Sheikah (Cube, Jimbob, Jonnas)

 

Not voting:

no one

 

Majority was 5.

Jonnas was lynched.

Jonnas was town.

 

living 7: (4 town, 3 mafia)

Cube

Mr-Paul

Rummy

The Peeps

Sheikah

ReZourceman

Jimbob

 

dead 3: (3 town)

Shorty

Tales

Jonnas

 

Day 4 begins.

 

Deadline is 18:30 Thursday 3rd July.

[The Peeps]

The whole reasoning behind it had to do with "Tales was town, this is how we know Shorty's lynch was not suggested by the mafia". If the lynched player is town, it was not suggested by the mafia

 

That wasn't the whole reasoning and you should know that. It was that we can trust his target is impartial because he's not mafia. We can trust that he gave us a purely random target free from any agenda because he flipped town.

 

[new post] awwwkwaaard

[Rummy]

One more town and the mafia win now.

[The Peeps]

So what is the course of action? Jonnas obviously was biased in his choice and I don't think I believe Sheikah is mafia... as he said himself, why would anyone of the mafia suggest a plan which has a high chance of getting one of them lynched before the end of the game?

 

Currently I'm most inclined to go for Cube or Jimbob.

[Cube]

What it does do is make sure that our next target is coming from somewhere devoid of outside influence.

 

If you pick your target based on suspicions, you could be wrong. You can interpret things wrong and get a townie lynched because of your own bias which is worse than getting a townie lynched based on cold, random numbers. If you've based your vote on your own bias and get a townie lynched, that's on you. You can then dwell on what might have happened if you had picked randomly.

 

You seem to be missing the entire point of mafia games. The entire point is to base your choices on what people say. If we carry on with RNG, there's no reason to carry on playing.

 

The people still going for the RNG method must be mafia. It was fine for the second day, but we're supposed to ditch it after that. With the RNG method, there will always be a greater chance of lynching a townie, right to the last lynch.

 

Sheikah, The Peeps and ReZourceman are mafia.

 

Vote: Sheikah

[Rummy]

Me too? We can't ALL be mafia, and I'm totally mafia.

[Sheikah]

I am stupefied by that result. What the frack, Jonnas.

 

You seem to be missing the entire point of mafia games. The entire point is to base your choices on what people say.

 

We just did that, actually, and Jonnas was town (I would have lynched him regardless of the system). And I'm really annoyed by it because his behaviour and overly aggressive play towards me made me push for his lynch. Even though nearly every other god damn player agreed to the plan he singled out me and tried to argue it was the perfect Mafia plan, which it really isn't. The luck is just not with us as it was a straight 60% chance that we should have found a Mafioso right now.

 

Anyway, saying that Vote: Rummy

 

I could go for Cube, which still seems like a decent idea, but for all I know he's being as stubborn as Jonnas was by holding out. With Rummy, he'd want to have gone through with the lynches so far as all have been townies, and this is just my feeling but I would have thought he'd have more to say about this random lynching process. And in general.

 

So that's my vote. People can join it or do whatever. Feel the game is slightly ruined for me now by the total curve ball Jonnas has thrown.

[Cube]

I am stupefied by that result. What the frack, Jonnas.

 

But the result was pretty obvious. He was the only person acting like a townie.