Dcubed Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console Looks like developers are just starting to get early Switch 2 dev kits now... For reference, this happened with the Switch/NX around October 2015... https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-begins-distributing-software-kit-for-new-nx-platform-1444996588 Strongly implies that Switch 2 will be coming out March 2023 (as I previously predicted).
Ronnie Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Sounds like an iterative update to the Switch
Dcubed Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ronnie said: Sounds like an iterative update to the Switch It could well be, but this news tells us literally nothing about what the system will or will not be able to do (outside of 4k visuals). It could be a mindjacking matrix device and we'd be none the wiser.
Dcubed Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ashley said: Nintendo denies (unsurprisingly) Sure. They're not making a 4K Nintendo Switch... because this new console is not gonna be a "Nintendo Switch" as we know it March 2023 is looking more and more likely than ever before... Makes me wonder why the hell Bayonetta 3 is launching on the current Switch and not just being pushed back... Hell it's probably gonna be releasing October/November 2022, why not just push it back a few months and make it a launch title!? Edited September 30, 2021 by Dcubed
Sheikah Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Seems weird that it apparently doesn't exist if there's reports that several companies are making games for such a device. Sounds like Nintendo are talking bollocks. 1
Ronnie Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Dcubed said: It could well be, but this news tells us literally nothing about what the system will or will not be able to do (outside of 4k visuals). But given that Nintendo have said multiple times they want the Switch lifecycle to last longer than most console gens, an iterative update seems more likely, especially from the way these reports only talk about 4K as the new feature. Just now, Sheikah said: Sounds like Nintendo are talking bollocks. They're not exactly going to say "yes we're making a new model".
Sheikah Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Just now, Ronnie said: They're not exactly going to say "yes we're making a new model". Of course. Hence, they're talking bollocks. 2
Cube Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, Dcubed said: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console Looks like developers are just starting to get early Switch 2 dev kits now... For reference, this happened with the Switch/NX around October 2015... https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-begins-distributing-software-kit-for-new-nx-platform-1444996588 Strongly implies that Switch 2 will be coming out March 2023 (as I previously predicted). Although this section Quote One specific class of component, ABF substrates, is necessary for the 4K Nintendo product, but supplies of those parts are now fully booked until 2025, said executives at component suppliers to Nintendo who asked not to be identified. Seems like it would either have a very limited release, or not release until 2025 at the earliest.
Julius Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) Just for additional context from @Ashley's post, this is what Nintendo said: We've definitely been here with the tricky wording before, so yeah. I still think their original plan was to go with a Pro, but because of COVID and parts supply issues they had to pivot, and so we got the OLED. I wouldn't be surprised if their plans for a more powerful platform and 4K development have pivoted as a result of that from the Switch Pro to the Switch 2, but as @Cube points out, supply issues could continue to hinder their plans. Edited September 30, 2021 by Julius
Dcubed Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Cube said: Although this section Seems like it would either have a very limited release, or not release until 2025 at the earliest. This thing is going to be in very short supply for a long time; as is the case with PS5/Series X. There's no getting around that with the ongoing worldwide chip shortage. They aint gonna wait out the chip shortage that long though, they'll just accept mass shortages and demand outstripping supply (A concept that Nintendo is definitely no stranger to ). Edited September 30, 2021 by Dcubed
Cube Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 Hopefully it means Nintendo supporting the Switch for a decent length after this supposed new model/new console is released. After Nintendo's output on the Switch, I'll likely be waiting until near the end of the next console's lifespan anyway.
V. Amoleo Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 I really really doubt the 'Switch Pro' ever existed now. The guys who reverse engineer the Nintendo Switch System Software have even shown that the new display driver and Dock software (though they even misinterpreted this!) were really the only new things added for ages. So while I don't doubt there is a new Nintendo console being made, of course there is, I do doubt anything this guy says. He's going "No no, I wasn't wrong... errr... Nintendo just changed their minds!". As long as he keeps saying it, he'll be right at one point. Like peeps above have said, March 2023 is when I'm expecting the new console. 2017-2023 is a good 6 years. That's roughly around how long the past couple of generations have been. 1
Ronnie Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, V. Amoleo said: Like peeps above have said, March 2023 is when I'm expecting the new console. 2017-2023 is a good 6 years. That's roughly around how long the past couple of generations have been. 9 months ago: "Nintendo Switch is "halfway through its life" - Doug Bowser 18 months ago: Switch Will Have A Longer Life Cycle Than Previous Consoles, Says Nintendo President Nothing to stop them releasing a new console, but keep supporting the Switch like they did with the 3DS of course, but I think the above is important to note. If you listened to people above then Bayonetta 3 is releasing on Switch 2, which obviously isn't the case. Edited September 30, 2021 by Ronnie
Ashley Posted September 30, 2021 Author Posted September 30, 2021 (I was going to say 9 months ago would be half way through 6 years but then remembered in spite of how it may feel we're not still in 2020) Anyway, more denials:
Dcubed Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, Ronnie said: 9 months ago: "Nintendo Switch is "halfway through its life" - Doug Bowser 18 months ago: Switch Will Have A Longer Life Cycle Than Previous Consoles, Says Nintendo President Nothing to stop them releasing a new console, but keep supporting the Switch like they did with the 3DS of course, but I think the above is important to note. If you listened to people above then Bayonetta 3 is releasing on Switch 2, which obviously isn't the case. Not to dwell on this, but Nintendo's execs aren't exactly gonna be coming out publically saying that Switch is coming to the end of its lifecycle... especially when they're peddling a new model and haven't announced a successor yet... Edited September 30, 2021 by Dcubed 1
Ronnie Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) 45 minutes ago, Dcubed said: Not to dwell on this, but Nintendo's execs aren't exactly gonna be coming out publically saying that Switch is coming to the end of its lifecycle... especially when they're peddling a new model and haven't announced a successor yet... True but they also didn't have to be that specific as they were in the above interviews. They could have just given a non answer like we hope to support to the Switch for a long while or something like that. Anyway, we'll see. 2023 is obv possible, 6 year lifespan, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it go 7 or 8 years. Or maybe there'll be overlap, who knows, but I don't think these rumours (if they're even genuine) are pointing to a new console, but an iterative upgrade. Edited September 30, 2021 by Ronnie
Ashley Posted September 30, 2021 Author Posted September 30, 2021 I wouldn't hold much stock in a phrase like "half way through its life" being literal, much like "mid-life" is not an exact indication of when your years remaining is equal to years lived. I think it could mean anywhere from early 2023 to 2025 really as it's a loose enough expression: is December 2020 3 years since launch (rounded down), 3 years and 9 months (exact) or 4 years (rounded up). And then from either of those are you adding that amount to 12/20 or doubling that amount from 03/16? Which at the earliest is March 2022 (very bloody unlikely) and the latest December 2024 but just to illustrate how vague that phrase actually is. (Sorry, went into work "can you be more specific?" mode a bit there) 1
Ronnie Posted September 30, 2021 Posted September 30, 2021 (edited) It was 2 and a half months away from the 4 year anniversary, suggesting another 4ish years = mid-late 2024. But yeah, obviously it's not exact, but you combine that with the comment about wanting them saying on a separate occasion that the Switch will last longer than most console cycles and I think it's worth considering at least. Edited September 30, 2021 by Ronnie
Dcubed Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 8 hours ago, Ronnie said: It was 2 and a half months away from the 4 year anniversary, suggesting another 4ish years = mid-late 2024. But yeah, obviously it's not exact, but you combine that with the comment about wanting them saying on a separate occasion that the Switch will last longer than most console cycles and I think it's worth considering at least. A March 2023 release would constitute a longer lifecycle than every single Nintendo home console (other than just the Famicom - which had very weak competition compared to today’s standard). Just to put things in perspective; by this point in their respective lifecycles, the Wii U had already been replaced by the Switch, the Wii U had already been formally unveiled (and almost every major Wii game had already been released), Project Reality had already been formally unveiled as the Nintendo 64 & set for release just over a year away and the N64 had already been superseded by the GameCube. Switch is old AF now. Nintendo are already late in announcing a successor by this point.
Julius Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Dcubed said: Just to put things in perspective; by this point in their respective lifecycles, the Wii U had already been replaced by the Switch, the Wii U had already been formally unveiled (and almost every major Wii game had already been released), Project Reality had already been formally unveiled as the Nintendo 64 & set for release just over a year away and the N64 had already been superseded by the GameCube. I mean to be fair, other than the Wii, Nintendo's home consoles historically haven't exactly had stellar sales figures. The Wii's support and sales fell off a cliff in its latter years, and the Wii U was taken out back, silenced, and ejected into the atmosphere as a dumpster fire so big it could have taken out the dinosaurs. We're four and a half years into the life of the Switch and it is still breaking record after record, and the only thing that could really get in the way of that momentum right now is Nintendo pulling the rug from under it. Also, considering that Nintendo's home consoles haven't historically sold competitively on the whole besides the Wii - whereas their handheld consoles have virtually always seen a lot of success - and with the Switch being a hybrid, I think it's a bit unfair to not look back at their handhelds in this too. The DS was around for six and a half years before the 3DS came along, and the 3DS is a bit tougher to pin down just seeing as the New 2DS XL released after the Switch, but that was over six years too. I think that in particular lines up better with you thinking we could see something release in 2023 to be honest, but then again, to play devil's advocate, this is the first time since truly consolidating their handheld and home consoles - after phasing out the 3DS - that we'll be seeing a new console from them (assuming they don't do the silly thing and split them again after the Switch's life is complete). Personally, I'd like to see something come out in 2023 seeing as a Pro model is increasingly unlikely, because we've already seen the Switch's limited capabilities get in the way of some of its games being fully realised at this point. If they came out with something like a Pro next year, it could stretch the life of the Switch out to 2024/2025, but due to the chip shortages I think they'd be wise to leave that behind and move into the next generation, especially seeing as by 2023 both the PS5 and Series X | S will - I imagine - have started properly delivering on the promise of next-gen, and will be carrying a lot of momentum with them. I know some have seen Nintendo's growing slate for 2022 and view it as something of a last hurrah for the Switch, and while I think it's a bit too early to be making that call for now, I do hope that isn't the case and the Switch doesn't have the rug pulled from under it when it's likely to still be crushing it. Will be very interesting to see how it all plays out, and I'm especially curious to see how Nintendo market whatever comes next, even more so if they plan to continue Switch support for a year or two after its successor launches (hopefully with backwards compatibility!). Edited October 1, 2021 by Julius 1
Ronnie Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Dcubed said: Nintendo are already late in announcing a successor by this point. They're not late, they've literally said this gen will last a while. It's selling like crazy, why would they abandon it so early? Software sales is everything to them. Edited October 1, 2021 by Ronnie
Ashley Posted October 1, 2021 Author Posted October 1, 2021 12 hours ago, Ronnie said: It was 2 and a half months away from the 4 year anniversary, suggesting another 4ish years = mid-late 2024. But yeah, obviously it's not exact, but you combine that with the comment about wanting them saying on a separate occasion that the Switch will last longer than most console cycles and I think it's worth considering at least. Try asking 100 people what "this weekend" means and you'll see why I wouldn't be quick to make assumptions about what kind of rounding is taking place
Sheikah Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Dcubed said: Switch is old AF now. Nintendo are already late in announcing a successor by this point. If you look back at previous generations, some last way longer than others. It's impossible to definitively say that they're late. Wii U for instance had a fairly short life.
Ronnie Posted October 1, 2021 Posted October 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ashley said: Try asking 100 people what "this weekend" means and you'll see why I wouldn't be quick to make assumptions about what kind of rounding is taking place Sure, but common sense suggests instead of rounding down by 9 and a half months, you round up by 2 and a half.
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