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Nintendo Exp-element Mafia


DuD

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But while there's no kind of priority for the targets (no known investigator/protector/etc), it really makes no sense choosing a target. It doesn't matter to the mafia who they kill on the first night, so them knowing who is protected puts so side at an advantage.

 

The mafia choosing one of their own also gives nobody an advantage, but at least there's a slim chance that the town will place more votes on one person than the mafia. Thus, there's a slim chance of the second vest saving a life.

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I suppose taking a protection from the mafia isn't actually as big a priority as I first thought. The only benefit would be redirectors on the town side redirecting to him, but they aren't even common. Also I didn't think of Rummy's point. I thought it was least votes rather than explicitly voting for the least popular. But even if it wasn't mafia could just spread votes across townies to increase their chances of LV protection. <- I will be using this acronym. HV for highest.

 

Vote: No Lynch

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I must say, I'm interested to see how this game goes already. It's almost like a town collective protector - good for when you know someone's likely to get shanked(ie an investigator or protector) early on.

 

Indeed, it's quite good actually - if we get an alignment investigator with proven results, and the protector (if there is one) is dead, they're pretty much guaranteed to stay alive and keep on giving! :)

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Nope, I refuse to go with this majority thing. How do I know you're not mafia trying to manipulate me into giving the vest to a buddy eh? What's to stop us all voting one single person and the selfish mafia voting one person different to secure themselves the lower vote vest? Alternatively, what's to stop renegade mavericks who wish to lie to the town and not go along with the team decision from trying to take it for themselves for their own selfish reasoning?

 

The answer - nothing. We can try our hardest to reason this back and forth additionally, but it won't go anywhere because it's not a public record. I don't want to give the mafia a chance to manipulate us by playing to a planned move so early on!

 

No think about it.

 

If we don't pick a single person to vote for, you can bet Mafia will put forward just one of their team and that person will almost certainly win.

 

The worst thing that can happen if we put forward a person we all vote for is the same as what will certainly happen in the above; a Mafioso wins. But from a random perspective it's more likely to be town who is picked.

 

Concentrating on one person to vote for is also better in ensuring more townies have no votes, so improves our chances of winning least popular too.

 

But while there's no kind of priority for the targets (no known investigator/protector/etc), it really makes no sense choosing a target. It doesn't matter to the mafia who they kill on the first night, so them knowing who is protected puts so side at an advantage.

 

The mafia choosing one of their own also gives nobody an advantage, but at least there's a slim chance that the town will place more votes on one person than the mafia. Thus, there's a slim chance of the second vest saving a life.

 

Again see above, if we don't choose a person to all vote for then the Mafia will be pretty much guaranteed protection tonight by winning the popularity shirt.

 

At least it gives one potential townie the freedom to move and not be blocked tonight, instead of a guaranteed Mafioso if we split the vote.

 

Least popular shirt winner will still be unknown if we collaborate our votes.

 

You could argue there's not much point as the Mafia know not to target the most popular shirt winner.

 

But riddle me this. Don't you think the Mafia will vote for their teammate who is going to make the kill? If they do then the killer is protected, meaning potentially no cop or tracker results on them tonight.

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If we choose someone right now, it will be pointless. The mafia won't target them for the kill, so the vest becomes pointless because it will never waste the mafia's time. And if that person is mafia, even worse.

Not to mention, people might agree on a single person during the day, but won't actually vote for them.

 

At least with random choosing, there's a small chance that a townie will go vested, and the mafia won't know.

 

From my perspective, every outcome of the above option benefits the mafia. So, if we must choose between 0% and 5% chance of screwing the mafia, I'll take the latter. Herojan's avatar knows what I'm talking about.

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If we choose someone right now, it will be pointless. The mafia won't target them for the kill, so the vest becomes pointless because it will never waste the mafia's time. And if that person is mafia, even worse.

Not to mention, people might agree on a single person during the day, but won't actually vote for them.

 

At least with random choosing, there's a small chance that a townie will go vested, and the mafia won't know.

 

From my perspective, every outcome of the above option benefits the mafia. So, if we must choose between 0% and 5% chance of screwing the mafia, I'll take the latter. Herojan's avatar knows what I'm talking about.

 

What do you think will happen if one of us doesn't win the shirt?

 

With 3/4 guaranteed votes on one Mafioso plus whatever other votes they randomly muster, they will win one shirt almost certainly.

 

Do you think they might send the shirt winner to kill while being protected?

 

Whatever way you look at it, the choice is between Mafia winning the shirt, or Mafia probably not winning the shirt.

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It would protect them from trackers.

 

With the argument that the mafia are just going to vote for one team mate to get the vest, it will put suspicion on anyone who couldn't be reached for the first night so it may not be the best plan to go for. If we discover that someone was unreachable on night 1 and we then deduce it was because of the vest, there's at least a 50% chance of that person being mafia - if we accept the argument that the mafia will all vote for one of their own. It's possible they will all vote for a townie whom they can simply avoid on night 1.

 

I don't think there's a winning solution for night 1 as you can put holes in any suggestion. If someone seems good to you, nominate them. It will get easier as we get into the game and people come out with their roles - assuming the vests are a daily thing and not just for the first night?

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They're the ones making the kill. How will the protection help them?

 

What Peeps said in response to this. I think that's an extraordinarily weird thing to ask, Cube, are you being serious?

 

Plus surely the fact Mafia can vote for a shirt suggests it's more than just protection from kills.

 

It would protect them from trackers.

 

With the argument that the mafia are just going to vote for one team mate to get the vest, it will put suspicion on anyone who couldn't be reached for the first night so it may not be the best plan to go for. If we discover that someone was unreachable on night 1 and we then deduce it was because of the vest, there's at least a 50% chance of that person being mafia - if we accept the argument that the mafia will all vote for one of their own. It's possible they will all vote for a townie whom they can simply avoid on night 1.

 

I don't think there's a winning solution for night 1 as you can put holes in any suggestion. If someone seems good to you, nominate them. It will get easier as we get into the game and people come out with their roles - assuming the vests are a daily thing and not just for the first night?

 

For the Mafia, protection is better than being identified by a cop or being tracked, or having your kill interrupted by role blocking or redirection. Basically the kill would be unstoppable and untraceable.

 

Sure we could deduce stuff from them being unreachable, but there's no guarantee that someone being unreachable can't be down to any number of abilities like in the last game. And it's not a given the killer will even be targeted.

 

I think it's a much better idea to claim the shirt ourselves than leave the Mafia to probably get it.

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What Peeps said in response to this. I think that's an extraordinarily weird thing to ask, Cube, are you being serious?

 

Plus surely the fact Mafia can vote for a shirt suggests it's more than just protection from kills.

 

I think you missed DuD's post about it only being related to kills.

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Second: Argh. Just saw that vests protect only against kills.

 

Disregard the above then. Still, the Mafia will probably claim one (potential vig protection), so I think it would still make sense to reduce the number of townies who can be killed so that we can concentrate our protection better.

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Do you think they might send the shirt winner to kill while being protected?

 

If the vest worked like this, it would be an excellent argument for putting the vest on a mafioso. It'd be like having a target on your back.

 

Second: Argh. Just saw that vests protect only against kills.

 

Disregard the above then. Still, the Mafia will probably claim one (potential vig protection), so I think it would still make sense to reduce the number of townies who can be killed so that we can concentrate our protection better.

 

And for that, I should mention the point I made before: if we agree on a townie, the mafia will never kill them. Furthermore, we will never be sure of their alignment until we actually lynch the guy who got the vest.

 

In other words, the life-saving vest is wasted on the one person who isn't going to swim.

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If the vest worked like this, it would be an excellent argument for putting the vest on a mafioso. It'd be like having a target on your back.

 

 

 

And for that, I should mention the point I made before: if we agree on a townie, the mafia will never kill them. Furthermore, we will never be sure of their alignment until we actually lynch the guy who got the vest.

 

In other words, the life-saving vest is wasted on the one person who isn't going to swim.

 

In joining our votes all on one person that creates multiple townies with no votes (as votes were focused on one dude) who are all eligible to get a vest, and the Mafia won't know which of us gets it.

 

Mafia pretty much will get a vest and we won't know who, if we don't co ordinate votes.

 

In having one less townie who can be killed, it reduces the pool of players the Mafia will target, thus makes it easier for any of our protections, role blocks or redirects to have a good effect.

 

Really, the choice is between very good odds of town getting both shirts, or near certain odds of Mafia getting at least one.

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I think even if we say 'vote for one of the two' then the Mafia won't touch either.

 

For me it's just a choice between better odds getting the 'loser' vest and improving chances of tracking/cop roles/manipulation of the Mafia by concentrating the votes vs the Mafia getting it by voting for one of their team. It's better for now to just all vote one guy.

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