Xbox Series S | X Console Discussion

[drahkon]

2 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

I do wonder if the Xbox name has become a bit toxic now

I don't know about toxic, but I definitely think it's irrelevant.

When I watch Champions League or NFL or NBA I always see ads for PS5.

Not sure if I've ever seen an ad for an XBox Series

Edited November 22, 2023 by drahkon

[Hero-of-Time]

10 hours ago, drahkon said:

I don't know about toxic, but I definitely think it's irrelevant.

When I watch Champions League or NFL or NBA I always see ads for PS5.

Not sure if I've ever seen an ad for an XBox Series

At the start of the generation I used to see quite a few adverts but now there's pretty much nothing. 

[Julius]

 Just want to say that was a great post to start a discussion @Hero-of-Time, it's something I've been mulling over the last couple of days since you posted 

On 11/21/2023 at 12:50 PM, Hero-of-Time said:

Do you think as a hardware manufacture that they are fighting a losing battle? The 360 was clearly lightning in a bottle for them and they've not come close to repeating the success they had with that. Granted, the red ring fiasco wiped out a massive part of their profits but as a brand the Xbox was very strong during that generation.

Absolutely - in fact, I think they've already lost, acknowledged that they did so a long time ago, and have since pivoted. 

If you want the best experience of current generation first party PlayStation or Nintendo offerings at launch, you have to buy their consoles. There is no exception to this.

Because Xbox - by design - has always been closer in hardware to PCs in architecture than the other consoles, which benefitted them quite a bit early on and then especially so with the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3's Cell processor gaffe making Xbox 360 arguably the place to experience most third party games as (generally) performance was better on the console; nowadays, however, because the vast majority of their first party offerings have been landing on PC day and date since some point last gen, anyone who actually wants to have the best experience with Xbox games is better off investing in their PC than in a dedicated console. It's the mid-tier way to experience their games (which I would argue has created a lack of ambition when compared to PlayStation and Nintendo simply because the game needs to run on their Xbox consoles to a degree which is acceptable, but it means they can't squeeze everything out of the consoles that they can, because there's a need for scaling up and down on PC), whereas PlayStation and Nintendo still deliver the experiences to console as a premiere experience, and despite PlayStation taking steps over the last few years to move more games to PC, they take their sweet time with it and are very inconsistent when it comes to PC port quality; for now, it remains an afterthought for them. 

On 11/21/2023 at 12:50 PM, Hero-of-Time said:

do they even have an IP that is strong enough anymore that will pull in the punters?

Honestly? No, I really don't think they do.

As you say, I think they've buried so many of their first party offerings through depending so heavily on them that they became stale, and didn't really take a chance on true new AAA IPs/revivals last gen, which is really biting them in the ass now. Of their AAA pick-ups, Bethesda should be a crown jewel - but they've been on the slide since Skyrim, and I don't think are seen as the premiere developer they once were; likewise, Activision/Blizzard is also just sort of stagnating, and let's be honest, it's not like any of these companies would've been up for grabs had they not been in a messy state. 

I've said in the past that the only reason I'd personally take a chance on Xbox is to experience older games of theirs and to use Forza as an alternative to FIFA (i.e. a game I can just play pretty mindlessly), but otherwise, I don't really see the point. When was the last time that Xbox released a truly exceptional, can't-miss game, one worth buying a console for? And even more so, one that wasn't also on PC at launch or almost immediately after? 

Between PlayStation and Nintendo first party stuff, a handful of third parties, and then indie games, I think Xbox have been squeezed out pretty forcefully - the hangers-on at this point are, I think, mostly existing Xbox users already in the ecosystem or the more casual FIFA/CoD/etc. players. I would be very interested in seeing the split on Xbox Series for people new to the ecosystem vs existing users. 

Don't even get me started on their acquisitions strategy, (so far) evidently poor ROI on those acquisitions (talking output here), and the absolutely abysmal curation job they've done over there - because I feel like that's all I ever talk about with Xbox when they have these conversations, unfortunately, which I feel like we've had countless times over the last 5 years.

I struggle to see them changing and thriving without even more of a shake-up and even more targeted purchases; I genuinely think they'd need to cripple Japan's gaming industry by at least acquiring Konami, SEGA, and Square Enix to really start competing with PlayStation this gen. Only then do you find an Xbox with a worldwide appeal in the same way Nintendo and PlayStation have, developers with a history of delivering phenomenal games consistently, and well, Konami is just there to revive dead franchises and win out with nostalgia. 

On 11/21/2023 at 12:50 PM, Hero-of-Time said:

Would it be fair to say that the way their hardware is selling that the best option for them would be to just stop creating hardware and become a software only company? License out Game Pass on to other devices and just encourage people to subscribe to that? Would this even be a viable strategy? I mean, you just have to look at the subscription service model and see a lot of them are hitting their peak/saturation points already. It's not just happening in the games but in other media industries as well.

Basically, do you think Microsoft can turn this situation around that has been going on for 2 generations now and if so, how do you think they can achieve this?

I agree with @Dcubed on this one - it's where Microsoft have been going with all of their other services, and is where their gaming services are inevitably going to end up, to. Considering there were whispers of Xbox coming out at GDC years ago now (2019 or 2020?) with Nintendo to unveil Game Pass coming to Switch, I'm surprised we've not yet seen that come to fruition, but I think the Switch's successor and the horsepower it could bring to the table will be vital in delivering on that potential. 

While Game Pass numbers are indeed climbing, the rate at which it is doing so has already been noted as slowing down. Coming to Switch or Switch 2 and potentially PlayStation at some point will definitely lead to a bump in numbers - but between the offerings already on those consoles, and seeing how an overabundance of programming has resulted in even Netflix needing to cut corners to try to show change and growth to shareholders, so long as Xbox is beholden to Microsoft and is beholden to shareholders? Inevitable price bumps in Game Pass as they inch closer to their saturation point are inevitable, and I think the indie scene and AA space is most likely to be impacted here: if a game isn't on NSO/PS+, but is on Game Pass, you download it through Game Pass but then the developer is missing out on a potential sale through the other platforms? These indie deals are either going to get a lot more lucrative or the space is going to experience its first real collapse once Game Pass arrives on other platforms. 

What I find funny about all of this is that Xbox's biggest misstep is not taking a page out of the Wii's book when it comes to their Game Pass approach: they 1000% need to adopt the blue ocean approach in order to even attempt to not reach saturation after arriving on other platforms. I mean, imagine if the Wii was a cloud gaming device and multimedia device, where all you needed was the Wiimote and the app downloaded to your TV in order to play Wii Sports and the other incredibly well-designed Wii games made to expand the market; I could really see something like that working, and working damn well. It was a device filled with casual and approachable games across the board, but compare this to Game Pass, which I think is a splendid deal for what it is, but relies so much on already having gaming knowledge with almost all of its games that I think a casual newcomer to the space would be completely overwhelmed by the amount of games on offer, input variety across games on Game Pass, etc., that they'd rather buy a dedicated gaming device if it's not done well. Basically: one day, Game Pass is going to need to be curated for and have games designed around the calibre and entry-level nature that Nintendo achieved with the Wii. That was lightning in a bottle built off the back of some of the greatest minds in the industry and with Iwata as a leader; I don't think Xbox has the minds at the top (no offence, Phil) to pull off that lightning in a bottle situation for themselves.

Because, let's be honest: 20+ years in the industry, and they've never managed to do that, have they? They haven't had a Wii or a DS or a PS1 or PS2 or PS4, heck, their best-selling console sold a few million more than the PSP and still managed to get overtaken by the PS3 despite PlayStation shooting themselves in the foot with a shotgun. 

I genuinely think the Series consoles are, at this point, here to tide people over and buy Microsoft time until cloud gaming is where it needs to be for them to truly deliver on Game Pass in the way they want to; problem is, I think they're probably at least 5 years or so out from getting to this point, but they have to keep Xbox alive as a brand in the meantime while that tech isn't there in the same way that Google released the Stadia just to say they did it. While more successful than the Wii U with both the One and Series lines, Xbox, I feel, are in this weird middle ground similar to the last few years of the Wii U where they're just trying to get to the next thing. 

On 11/21/2023 at 2:10 PM, Dcubed said:

PS5 is down on its predecessor in all regions too

While technically true if we go purely by the numbers and without context, the fact that PS5 hit 40 million units sold this year and is tracking only slightly behind the PS4 (which took 2 months fewer to get to 40 million units) with the context of COVID and a mass components shortage leading up to launch makes this seem like a bit of a disingenuous take. 

Even more so when you consider that this is the first year we've really seen them shake off the cross-gen release rust, because before Spider-Man 2, while there were some quality AAA first party experiences to have on PS5, the big-hitter sequels like Ragnarok and Forbidden West have all found themselves being cross-gen, so the actual need to buy the console for consumers already with a PS4 has been minimal.

(I also think that it was just a smart decision to do this, because why leave 120+ million or whatever PS4s behind? That would be pretty dumb, right? Right, Xbox, with your understandable but also kind of stupid exclusive Starfield release?  )

On 11/21/2023 at 2:10 PM, Dcubed said:

the total non-Nintendo console market size is continuously shrinking (and has been for the last ~15 years)

This is a pretty specific statement, and I think I'm going to have to hit you with another one of these:

Off the top of my head, both the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 sold around 85 million units each, so that's 170 million units sold in the 360/PS3 gen for non-Nintendo consoles. 

Still off the top of my head, PS4 sold around 120 million units, and the Xbox One sold around (just a bit under, I think) 60 million units...so that's 180 million units sold during the One/PS4 gen for non-Nintendo consoles. 

So unless we're counting portables like the PSP and Vita and/or peripherals like Kinect and Move...huh?

(and if we are including these - why? The motion control market died a quick death and smartphones have wiped out the dedicated portable market)

On 11/21/2023 at 2:10 PM, Dcubed said:

and both Microsoft and Sony are failing to bring in new audiences to replace their dying and dwindling customers

For Microsoft, I'd say it's more a calculated (but still risky) case of moving their audience to Game Pass, but yes, also a case of people moving to PC or replacing their Xbox with a PlayStation as their primary console. 

For Sony? I'm a bit confused by this statement. Who's dying and dwindling? 100m PS1s to 155m PS2s to 85m PS3s to 120m PS4s, with the PS5 at 40m+ units and tracking only a few months behind the PS4 despite everything else I've mentioned, if anything to me it looks like they've grown (out of the PS3 shell of themselves) and stabilised. 

There's totally a conversation to be had about their output this gen, but I'm seriously confused about them "failing to bring in new audiences to replace dying and dwindling customers."

On 11/21/2023 at 2:10 PM, Dcubed said:

And Sony seem to recognise this too, which is why they’re now branching out to PC.

Am I crazy here or is that not just a case of maximising profits on multi-hundred-million dollar investments, which is why - so far - it has been limited to their AAA offerings? The PC market is massive, PlayStation would be out on the streets if they didn't capitalise on opportunities like that. 

On 11/21/2023 at 3:14 PM, Hero-of-Time said:

If a Game Pass subscription is their end game then how can they make it appealing to people who are already invested in another ecosystem?

Also, let's say they do put it on other devices, such as TVs, are they really going to expand their audience that much by doing this? The TV subscription services are already pulling money out of people's pockets, with many looking to cancel and cut back due to the rising costs of them all. Would a member of the general public be willing to add yet another subscription to their monthly bills? Gamers will be no doubt happy to fork over money but an expanded audience? I'm not so sure.

I've not really got much to add here beyond my blue ocean stuff from before where I think they need to chase non-gamers in a Wii-type way in the long-term after it does land on other platforms, but I do find it really interesting that Netflix and the like have started to have their own gaming sections on their platforms and are sometimes publishing indie games (for example, Storyteller which I mentioned the other day is available through Netflix and published by them on mobile!). I think it becomes an interesting race to value-add from this point, which I think Sony is starting to prep for between Crunchyroll and Funimation...but I'm curious what Xbox's planned value-add is here? A month of Game Pass with Office 365? They're not exactly a huge name in the entertainment industry outside of Xbox, so I see team-ups or more acquisitions (urgh) in their future. 

21 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

I do wonder if the Xbox name has become a bit toxic now, much like the Wii branding did.

I think it is a bit of a poisoned chalice at this point, yes.

Xbox have a huge branding problem, and have for while now because of how stupidly they've named consoles for the last 10 years: the One, because it's one place to do everything? One X/S? Series X|S? There's a reason so many journalists were referring to the X|S mistakenly as the Xbox One Series X|S early on, it's such a stupid name.

However, it's also a bit of a double-edged sword: do you use a new name for the brand as a whole now, or stick to the name of the brand you've spent over two decades investing in? 

[Dcubed]

@Julius The last known sales of each Xbox & PS console are as follows…

PS2 = 155m, Xbox = 24m, total = 179m

PS3 = 87m, Xbox 360 = 85m, total = 172m

PS4 = 117m, Xbone = 51m, total = 168m

Xbox totals come from estimates posted here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/xbox-year-console-shipments-finally-revealed.1760/post-172954

Yes, Xbox is responsible for most of the collapse, but Sony haven’t picked up all the slack.  And COVID has been mostly beneficial to the video game industry when it comes to hardware & software sales; if anything, it has benefitted PS5 compared to its predecessor.

The traditional console industry is shrinking.  It posts record profits as it continues to squeeze more and more juice out of a smaller and more dedicated audience, but the actual user base is continuously aging and shrinking in size.

Oh, and just for the record, I actually do agree with your sentiment regarding Game Pass.  Traditional console video games inherently lack the accessibility and broad appeal of passive media, and pretty much nobody outside of Nintendo and a select few indies are even attempting to appeal to a wider audience outside of the well worn 10-25 male demographic.  As such, gaming subscription services will never achieve the wide adoption that the likes of Netflix achieved in their respective field, because these services are unable to appeal to that wider demographic with the type of content that the non-Nintendo console industry produces.

But it is still the only real path forward for Microsoft.  The traditional console war is lost.  It is the only way they can differentiate themselves with a real USP at this point, and while it has yet to bare real tangible fruit, it still has long-term potential to disrupt the existing industry.  Whether or not they will ever succeed at breaking out of the existing 10-25 male demographic will depend on the industry’s ability to finally pull its head out of its arse and finally realise that other types of games can be made… which I am not confident in seeing ever happen unfortunately.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Dcubed

[Julius]

6 hours ago, Dcubed said:

The last known sales of each Xbox & PS console are as follows…

PS2 = 155m, Xbox = 24m, total = 179m

PS3 = 87m, Xbox 360 = 85m, total = 172m

PS4 = 117m, Xbone = 51m, total = 168m

Xbox totals come from estimates posted here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/xbox-year-console-shipments-finally-revealed.1760/post-172954

Hey, going from memory and rounding a bit, I wasn't too far off 

I knew I'd seen a different number not too long ago for the Xbox One, though, so what's most interesting to me about that particular post is that, after looking around to see where I got that idea from, we actually got much a more solid number for the Xbox One that very same day (29th June 2023) courtesy of Microsoft themselves during the ID@Xbox presentation at BIG Festival in Brazil: 

The 79+ million combined Xbox One and Series X|S sales minus the 21+ million Series X|S sales leaves us with roughly 58 million Xbox One units sold in total (it's give or take, but somewhere within the range of between 57m to 59m, so I'm going to say 58m for simplicity's sake). 

So, that's:

6 hours ago, Dcubed said:

PS4 = 117m, Xbone = 58m, total = 175m

Regardless of where the actual numbers end up lying, my point was only ever to highlight that the numbers have either stabilised or ever so slightly increased between the PS3/360 and PS4/XBO gens, and take issue with the claim that the non-Nintendo console market has shown evidence of shrinking, and much less to a degree that it's (currently) worth worrying about. 

The continued advancement of cloud tech and the increased pivot by both companies towards subscription services is I think far, far more damning to the hardware future if this industry than any current signs of shifting unit sales of hardware between generations. 

6 hours ago, Dcubed said:

Yes, Xbox is responsible for most of the collapse, but Sony haven’t picked up all the slack. And COVID has been mostly beneficial to the video game industry when it comes to hardware & software sales; if anything, it has benefitted PS5 compared to its predecessor.

Again, I think it's very difficult to say because the COVID situation adds so much nuance here compared to other generational launches. It's something I've talked about before, so I'm going to quote myself from over in the PS5 thread from a good while back now, talking about the initial projected sales of the PS5 vs the reality (due to COVID):

Quote

I think it's worth remembering that last year Sony originally projected 15 million units of the PS5 shipped by the end of March [2021 - this is referring to the launch period of the PS5 and Sony's year-end], and considering how projections are all about undercutting demand to some degree to impress investors and boards, they likely expected even more than this. Then in September that got cut down to 11 million when the SOC shortage became more apparent, and then that got cut down again to an estimation of 6.5 million sold a couple of months ago, before we got the news a week and a half or so ago that they'd managed to ship (and let's be honest, likely sell through) 7.8 million units. 

It's crushed records despite the fact that - conservatively - Sony were originally expecting double the number of units to be shipped, and I guess we could say that from their perspective, there was twice as much demand than their supply (but let's be honest, it was probably more). So I'm not surprised at all surprised by the demand far outweighing the supply (even if there was no chip shortage and they did manage to ship 15+ million units by the end of March, I can almost guarantee that we'd still have people waiting)

I feel like the instinct here is to go "oh, well, PlayStation should have sold the difference in the time since then now that they have stock!", but I think that's an incredibly naïve takeaway and outlook on this; we all know that there is much more nuance to rebounding from a sales shortage than that. 

Back to your original point, though, either way, I think it's clearly then less a case of the market shrinking and simply a case of Xbox falling by the wayside after having not delivered consistent system-selling games in the way that both PlayStation and Nintendo have and continue to do. I'm damn sure that if Xbox delivered premiere content which was ambitious and ran best on Xbox consistently then 

I also think this idea of PlayStation "not picking up the slack" isn't the right way to look at this: they have no fiduciary duty towards either this industry or Microsoft/Xbox in keeping the line of sales sold between the two companies taut while Xbox sales continue to either decline or stabilise at okay-at-best generational sales figures. Their fiduciary duty is only unto themselves, and the way they'd be looking at the numbers going from PS3 to PS4? They're grinning evil and greed-filled smiles up in their boardrooms with their gold-lined desks. 

The question here for me, really, is whether the PS5 and Series consoles both manage to outsell their predecessor, and honestly I have no idea. I could see the PS5 doing 100m+ and the Xbox Series consoles coming in at around the same figure as the One consoles, but that's if they don't kill their chances off completely by coming to other platforms – which we both agree is clearly what they're trying to do!

But can the PS5 outsell the PS4? Between the incredibly poor pace of first party releases - despite their continued quality - up to this point in the generation and the decision to not come out with a cheaper Slim model but instead increase/maintain the price of the original model with a more cost effective production approach makes me think not. I think the next two years in particular are going to be gigantic for not only deciding the sales of the PS5, but of PlayStation as a whole: will their GaaS plans payoff (I doubt it)? Who do they acquire? Who don't they acquire? How hard are they leaning into PS+ and subscription models? Is that number growing or not? And so on. 

Xbox is already in a transition period towards Game Pass as their primary product, and I'll be shocked if Nintendo change too much with their next console beyond it conceptually being similar to the Switch. But PlayStation? I think we get a PS6 - for the record, I also think we might get one final Xbox console next gen - but the direction they go with and beyond that I think is still very much up in the air. 

6 hours ago, Dcubed said:

Oh, and just for the record, I actually do agree with your sentiment regarding Game Pass.  Traditional console video games inherently lack the accessibility and broad appeal of passive media, and pretty much nobody outside of Nintendo and a select few indies are even attempting to appeal to a wider audience outside of the well worn 10-25 male demographic.  As such, gaming subscription services will never achieve the wide adoption that the likes of Netflix achieved in their respective field, because these services are unable to appeal to that wider demographic with the type of content that the non-Nintendo console industry produces.

But it is still the only real path forward for Microsoft.  The traditional console war is lost.  It is the only way they can differentiate themselves with a real USP at this point, and while it has yet to bare real tangible fruit, it still has long-term potential to disrupt the existing industry.  Whether or not they will ever succeed at breaking out of the existing 10-25 male demographic will depend on the industry’s ability to finally pull its head out of its arse and finally realise that other types of games can be made… which I am not confident in seeing ever happen unfortunately.

Reading this part of your post makes me think I might be misinterpreting some of your statements about the console market "shrinking" and more that it is contracting around a certain demographic - to which I'd probably agree.

As someone who is still (currently) a part of that demographic, though, I think it's going to be really interesting to see what happens in the long-term with this current demo of 10-25 year-olds, because, not to be all doom and gloom or pull out the masculinity machine gun (I do not subscribe to the ideas of Andrew Tate or any of those other, uh, shamans of idiocy, if you will): the future is looking real rough right now.

Between ever-increasing stats worldwide on the number of people with mental health struggles; a new WW3-level chaos-fuelled threat every year that is beyond the reach of the layman; more and more young men worldwide struggling to get into (and then continue with) further education, and many, many other things; I think these young men - and then the men who slide into older demographics as the years go on - will look to either lose themselves to blame and toxic ideology (incel ideas and the like) or to escapism, of which I'd argue gaming is the ultimate form. 

The future is always uncertain, but to bring this back to the discussion of the industry, I think that's unfortunately how new demographics will be found and targeted: as a result of more people in a wider range of demographics. Honestly, I don't think that it's too dissimilar to how Japan is renowned for having an incredibly aged society, to the point that many politicians will chase their votes over younger adults (which is also because younger adults rarely seem to vote, but I think you catch my drift). 

Anyways, to bring it back to Xbox in particular, I agree with you: Xbox going all-in on Game Pass is the only logical choice they have at this point. Personally, I think it's a huge shame, because a lack of competition breeds a lack of ambition and complacency, for the industry and advancement of gaming as a whole, and I also already feel like PlayStation have made a few decisions this generation that they wouldn't have last generation when they felt they had a true fight on their hands. 

And then Nintendo are just...there, killing it this gen, and likely next, too. I'm much less worried about them than the other two simply because they always seem to have the ambition to squeeze the most out of whatever hardware they find themselves on and deliver great games around that. 

[Sheikah]

[mention=20895]Julius[/mention] The last known sales of each Xbox & PS console are as follows… PS2 = 155m, Xbox = 24m, total = 179m PS3 = 87m, Xbox 360 = 85m, total = 172m

PS4 = 117m, Xbone = 51m, total = 168m

Xbox totals come from estimates posted here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/xbox-year-console-shipments-finally-revealed.1760/post-172954

Yes, Xbox is responsible for most of the collapse, but Sony haven’t picked up all the slack.  And COVID has been mostly beneficial to the video game industry when it comes to hardware & software sales; if anything, it has benefitted PS5 compared to its predecessor.

The traditional console industry is shrinking.  It posts record profits as it continues to squeeze more and more juice out of a smaller and more dedicated audience, but the actual user base is continuously aging and shrinking in size.

Oh, and just for the record, I actually do agree with your sentiment regarding Game Pass.  Traditional console video games inherently lack the accessibility and broad appeal of passive media, and pretty much nobody outside of Nintendo and a select few indies are even attempting to appeal to a wider audience outside of the well worn 10-25 male demographic.  As such, gaming subscription services will never achieve the wide adoption that the likes of Netflix achieved in their respective field, because these services are unable to appeal to that wider demographic with the type of content that the non-Nintendo console industry produces.

But it is still the only real path forward for Microsoft.  The traditional console war is lost.  It is the only way they can differentiate themselves with a real USP at this point, and while it has yet to bare real tangible fruit, it still has long-term potential to disrupt the existing industry.  Whether or not they will ever succeed at breaking out of the existing 10-25 male demographic will depend on the industry’s ability to finally pull its head out of its arse and finally realise that other types of games can be made… which I am not confident in seeing ever happen unfortunately.

But what about the limited component availability and restricted supply (which Sony even said, and mentioned they've only just got back to normal availability). Don't just focus on the COVID part.  

Also you're making points with numbers without applying context. Many people bought a PS2 as a DVD player, it was also a bit lightning in a bottle. Not a valid argument being made here.

[Dcubed]

8 hours ago, Sheikah said:

But what about the limited component availability and restricted supply (which Sony even said, and mentioned they've only just got back to normal availability). Don't just focus on the COVID part.
 

Component shortages also affected PS2 and PS4 in their early days (and even PS3 to some extent).  We forget about them now, but the PS2’s first couple of years of shortages were the stuff of legends; and PS4 was also supply constrained well up until 2015.  Tale as old as time, nothing exclusive to PS5, and ultimately Sony’s problem to solve.

Also worth noting that price cuts are largely a thing of the past now (indeed, this is the age of price rises of consoles!), owing to rising semiconductor prices; another factor that will ultimately limit PS5’s ability to compete with its predecessors.

Quote

Also you're making points with numbers without applying context. Many people bought a PS2 as a DVD player, it was also a bit lightning in a bottle. Not a valid argument being made here.

Many people also bought a PS3 as a blu-ray player and the PS4 for its streaming apps, what’s your point?  And PS4 was also lightning in a bottle as both of its competitors (Xbone and Wii U) essentially killed themselves, leaving the market wide open for Sony to win by default.  That’s Sony’s problem to solve now with PS5.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Dcubed

[Sheikah]

Many people also bought a PS3 as a blu-ray player and the PS4 for its streaming apps, what’s your point?  That’s Sony’s problem to solve now with PS5.

These aren't equivalent examples though. Not as many people wanted a PS3 for a Blu Ray player as they wanted a PS2 for a DVD player, not even close. Also we know the PS5 was selling out for a long time and only just now have Sony said stock is unrestricted. So we know that it was selling as fast as it could, so any commentary looking at units sold across generations is pointless and misleading.

[Dcubed]

22 minutes ago, Sheikah said:

50 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

Many people also bought a PS3 as a blu-ray player and the PS4 for its streaming apps, what’s your point?  That’s Sony’s problem to solve now with PS5.

These aren't equivalent examples though. Not as many people wanted a PS3 for a Blu Ray player as they wanted a PS2 for a DVD player, not even close. Also we know the PS5 was selling out for a long time and only just now have Sony said stock is unrestricted. So we know that it was selling as fast as it could, so any commentary looking at units sold across generations is pointless and misleading.

More like any point of difference is a convinent excuse to brush over the continual decline of the "HD Twin" console business 

Again, these issues are Sony and Microsoft's problem to solve.  It's not the PS2's fault that it was a more appealing console than its successors.  If Sony want to be able to continue justifying exponentially increasing costs of making consoles and console games, they need to find a way to expand their audience...

... and so far, their answer is to turn to PC for that much needed demographic expanse; while squeezing more and more juice out of their existing audiences with a huge number of hardware peripherals and subscription services/GAAS titles.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Dcubed

[Sheikah]

More like any point of difference is a convinent excuse to brush over the continual decline of the "HD Twin" console business 

Again, these issues are Sony and Microsoft's problem to solve.  It's not the PS2's fault that it was a more appealing console than its successors.  If Sony want to be able to continue justifying exponentially increasing costs of making console games, they need to find a way to expand their audience...

... and so far, their answer is to turn to PC for that much needed demographic expanse.

You're ignoring the points I just made. These are not equivalent examples and supply restrictions make any comparisons about "desirability" of the core consoles pointless. If the PS5 has been selling out continuously for years then looking at units sold only tells you about availability, nothing about the full extent of desirability like you are suggesting.

[Dcubed]

30 minutes ago, Sheikah said:

You're ignoring the points I just made. These are not equivalent examples and supply restrictions make any comparisons about "desirability" of the core consoles pointless. If the PS5 has been selling out continuously for years then looking at units sold only tells you about availability, nothing about desirability like you are suggesting.

PS5 is still tracking behind PS4, even with the restrictions on supply being lifted now.  And there's no signs of it catching up either.

Software sales have also totally collapsed in Japan as well, with Sony more or less being completely removed from that market entirely now; even PC now often makes up a larger share of multiplatform sales than PS5 does (going by the discorse on the Install Base forums).  Its attach rate is literally the single worst result in the video game industry's entire history (literally less than 1:1, something like 0.3:1; an unprecedentedly bad result.   Even the 3DO did far better than that!), with most of the hardware being scalped and flipped for resale in western territories.

There's no reason to believe that it's going to achieve a miracle turnaround more than 3 years into its lifecycle.  We're far enough into the generation now where we can already safely assume that PS5 will be down on its predecessor when all is said and done (probably will end up reaching around 105-110 million by the end).

Edited November 24, 2023 by Dcubed

[Sheikah]

PS5 is still tracking behind PS4, even with the restrictions on supply being lifted now.  And there's no signs of it catching up either. Software sales have also totally collapsed in Japan as well, with Sony more or less being completely removed from that market entirely now; even PC now often makes up a larger share of multiplatform sales than PS5 does (going by the discorse on the Install Base forums). There's no reason to believe that it's going to achieve a miracle turnaround more than 3 years into its lifecycle.  We're far enough into the generation now where we can already safely assume that PS5 will be down on its predecessor when all is said and done (probably will end up reaching around 105-110 million by the end).

The PS5 restrictions have only just been lifted, of course it's tracking behind the PS4. Strange comment. It's also not far behind considering everything and will likely surpass the PS4 sales, which goes against everything you're suggesting.

 

I feel like you're forgetting the situation with PS5. For YEARS the situation would be that retailers would get a modest allocation and it would often be gone in minutes. Scalping was rife, like a very serious problem. I also bought the PS4 with absolutely no trouble not too long after launch (I bought the Infamous console bundle which came out not too long after launch). PS5 was seriously hit by production issues and COVID in a way that PS4 clear was not. You're trying to claim "oh but other consoles had availability issues too" but clearly the scale between PS4 and PS5 availability was completely different and you know it.

[drahkon]

6 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

PS5 is still tracking behind PS4, even with the restrictions on supply being lifted now.  And there's no signs of it catching up either.

While yes, it's still behind, it's "only" 1 mil.

And regarding "no signs of catching up": In the US (quite a competitive region), the PS5 is now ahead of PS4 sales when aligned

,

9 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

We're far enough into the generation now where we can already safely assume that PS5 will be down on its predecessor when all is said and done (probably will end up reaching around 105-110 million by the end).

Sure, it may end up like this, but given current statistics I don't see how we can "safely assume" that this will be the end result.

[Hero-of-Time]

Interesting points made by everyone here. 

6 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

Software sales have also totally collapsed in Japan as well, with Sony more or less being completely removed from that market entirely now; even PC now often makes up a larger share of multiplatform sales than PS5 does (going by the discorse on the Install Base forums).

Yeah, the software sales in Japan are atrocious. Nintendo have been carrying the market over there for a long time now. It seems most of the audience over there are buying the console for GaaS games. Sony make quite a bit of cash from those games over there. When it comes to traditional software though, they seem to be dead in the water. 

19 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

... and so far, their answer is to turn to PC for that much needed demographic expanse; while squeezing more and more juice out of their existing audiences with a huge number of hardware peripherals and subscription services/GAAS titles.

This is something I agree with. They've positioned themselves as a kind of premium product supplier, much like Apple have. All of the accessories and peripherals are there to milk the userbase that they have. It's certainly not for me (i'm just here for the games) but some of these things have proved very popular to the hardcore userbase.

 

[Dcubed]

Thanks for that chart, couldn't find it on my phone earlier.

The US is usually the last market that falls in line with trends elsewhere though; and is currently the least affected by the ongoing cost of living crisis.  I would expect it to start following the trajectory seen in Europe (and to a lesser extent Japan) later on though.

Point still stands though.  PS5 will be down on its predecessor, as will Series X/S.  The fact that the Japanese market has completely collapsed alone will ensure this (keeping in mind that the consoles that have sold there have mostly been scalped and resold to US/EU customers), and the overall market trend that has been ongoing for almost 20 years now is going to continue.

While Microsoft already see the writing on the wall and are already moving away from console hardware being their main business driver, Sony will also eventually need to pivot in order to address the overall market decline.  What form that will take? I’m not really sure yet, but it will have to happen eventually; because the console business is only going to continue to decline over time if nothing is done to broaden its demographics.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Dcubed

[Happenstance]

Got my nephew FC24 for Christmas and let him install it on my Xbox today to try. Put the disc in and it installed 500mbs then had to download a 60gig "update" 

[Hero-of-Time]

1 minute ago, Happenstance said:

Got my nephew FC24 for Christmas and let him install it on my Xbox today to try. Put the disc in and it installed 500mbs then had to download a 60gig "update" 

Sadly, this seems to be standard practice now. It feels like a win when you put a disc or Switch cart into the machine and find there's no update. Nintendo first party stuff seems best for this.

[Dcubed]

2 hours ago, Happenstance said:

Got my nephew FC24 for Christmas and let him install it on my Xbox today to try. Put the disc in and it installed 500mbs then had to download a 60gig "update" 

Sadly that’s the state of modern gaming.  Your physical discs are basically just glorified unlock keys and will eventually become coasters when all the online servers get shut off.

At least Nintendo are good about doing reprints of all their games with their respective updates being placed on the carts.  They’re pretty much the only publisher that regularly does this though sadly.

[S.C.G]

The state of modern physical games is reflected in shop sales as well, If you'd like an idea of how many games are in stock at say for example... a local retro collectables and game shop, you'll find that Xbox 360 games take up most of the shelf space, followed by Xbox Original titles which are catching up at maybe two thirds the size of the 360 games, and then right at the bottom, with maybe a fifth or a sixth size of the Original Xbox game shelf space is Xbox One / Series S X games.

It's the same for Playstation as well, PS2 has the largest shelf space, followed by PS1, then PS3, with PS4 trailing with a pile the size of maybe a sixth or seventh to that of the PS3 games, as the game just depreciate that quickly... oh and PS5 games are lumped in with the PS4 games at my local store, as there are only around five titles or less.

Meanwhile... Switch games, there aren't many, because generally if they are titles which are popular, they just sell, and while it is a similar story with Switch games, they do seem to hold their value.

Obviously Wii games take up the most shelf space, followed by DS and 3DS, with a few Wii U games here and there, GameCube games are making a comeback though, but they are getting tricker to source, especially certain titles, and as for other retro games? Well, this isn't retro discussion, and this may require a thread rip, but I thought at least the relevance of modern games not taking up much shelf space, and generally depreciating could be somewhat relevant.

[Dcubed]

17 hours ago, S.C.G said:

The state of modern physical games is reflected in shop sales as well, If you'd like an idea of how many games are in stock at say for example... a local retro collectables and game shop, you'll find that Xbox 360 games take up most of the shelf space, followed by Xbox Original titles which are catching up at maybe two thirds the size of the 360 games, and then right at the bottom, with maybe a fifth or a sixth size of the Original Xbox game shelf space is Xbox One / Series S X games.

It's the same for Playstation as well, PS2 has the largest shelf space, followed by PS1, then PS3, with PS4 trailing with a pile the size of maybe a sixth or seventh to that of the PS3 games, as the game just depreciate that quickly... oh and PS5 games are lumped in with the PS4 games at my local store, as there are only around five titles or less.

Meanwhile... Switch games, there aren't many, because generally if they are titles which are popular, they just sell, and while it is a similar story with Switch games, they do seem to hold their value.

Obviously Wii games take up the most shelf space, followed by DS and 3DS, with a few Wii U games here and there, GameCube games are making a comeback though, but they are getting tricker to source, especially certain titles, and as for other retro games? Well, this isn't retro discussion, and this may require a thread rip, but I thought at least the relevance of modern games not taking up much shelf space, and generally depreciating could be somewhat relevant.

Games for modern systems price collapse at retail so quickly that it’s often not even worth looking at second hand prices.  That plus the rise of digital also encourages thrifty laggards to pick up games at regular 80% off prices on their respective stores.

Most publishers not called Nintendo have successfully devalued their games and have trained people to just wait for heavy discounts.  Case in point? Compare Mario + Rabbids (and its sequel) to literally any other Mario game on Switch.  The difference in average selling prices is staggering (and indeed, it’s the biggest reason why I did not buy it right when it first came out, and instead chose to wait).

Meanwhile, retro games are just continuing to appreciate in value.  Probably because for the most part, they’re just better games than the slop that gets put out by the traditional side of the industry these days.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Dcubed

[Hero-of-Time]

18 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

 

Meanwhile, retro games are just continuing to appreciate in value.  Probably because for the most part, they’re just better games than the slop that gets put out by the traditional side of the industry these days.

Most of it has to do with nostalgia and supply and demand. More and more people have got into retro collecting and there's only so many of these copies to go around, especially if you want them in good condition.

You are seeing less and less of certain titles on the likes of ebay because people are now keeping a hold of them, not because they want to play them but probably because there is money to be made.

The difference between say 10 years ago to now for certain game prices and the amount of listings is nuts. Still baffles me why certain games command such high prices. Why the hell is a game like Silent Hill, which was readily available and became a platinum title, have a price of nearly £100? I don't get it. 

[Julius]

2 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

Most of it has to do with nostalgia and supply and demand. More and more people have got into retro collecting and there's only so many of these copies to go around, especially if you want them in good condition.

Yeah, speaking to my own personal experience lately of going from very little interest in retro game collecting when it comes to PS1/PS2 to "oh, actually, this would be neat and companies are stupidly not re-releasing everything they reasonably can, even just digitally?", it's absolutely that combination of nostalgia and supply/demand driving things up. There are some of the most critically acclaimed games of all-time stuck on older systems still – heck, despite the MGS Collection releasing this year (finally, Konami - get a grip you guys!) it still has managed to release in a pretty poor state as far as re-release packages go. 

More and more people can also get into retro collecting through more accessible means because there are lists upon lists of "must haves" and "hidden gems" on each system, but because of lists like those shining a light on virtually every game, there are definitely going to be those pumping prices up accordingly – even if it's not a fair reflection of the actual value of the game these days. 

2 hours ago, Hero-of-Time said:

Still baffles me why certain games command such high prices. Why the hell is a game like Silent Hill, which was readily available and became a platinum title, have a price of nearly £100? I don't get it. 

This is one of many series I've dived into in my retro research recently, and while it makes sense somewhat for 2 from what I've read (the poor HD Collection on PS3 virtually making the original PS2 release the best way to play outside of emulation on PlayStation), what's even crazier is that the original Silent Hill is available digitally as a PS1 CLASSIC on Vita and PS3, and it has no bearing whatsoever on the resale price of the PS1 version of the game. Maybe it's a Konami mark-up because of uncertainty that all of their games for re-released on modern platforms, and because so many of their games from that era are so beloved – heck, Symphony of the Night goes for an even prettier penny, and that game is available as a PS1 Classic on Vita and PS3, and has the digital re-release on PS4 still available! It's just nuts. 

The unfortunate truth is that I think places like CeX also have a large part to play in this, with their truly ridiculous buy-in/sell-for % mark-ups almost becoming the bar for the price of a retro game – there's simply no strict valuing process before people post these games for sale, and so places like that become a reference point. On places like eBay there are certainly some reasonable people selling retro games open to negotiating (more often than not, I find these are the people more interested in the games than the potential of making money in the retro market), but I think we're getting to the point where - as you mention, with more people holding onto them and less copies of games really getting into resale circulation - we're so far removed that oftentimes these games going up now can be a case of someone digging out their old collection, realising the apparent worth of the games by looking at something like CeX, and pricing their games for resale at a similar value. 

[Dcubed]

Who likes a bit of doom & gloom? We all like a bit of doom & gloom!

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/ea-sports-fc-24-and-ps5-delivered-december-growth-uk-monthly-charts

Sales breakdown courtesy of the Install Base Forums...

Quote

December 2023

PS5: 196K
NSW: 155K
XBS: 142K

2023 totals...

PS5 : ~1.110.000
NSW:  ~610.000
X/S : ~580.000

Christ, that's grim for Xbox... And that's with a massive holiday discount for the Series X to boot... When a £120 discount over the competition barely moves the needle in your second strongest market? You're proper fucked...

... guess we can see why they're looking to port HiFi Rush to Switch/Switch 2 now!

Edited January 8 by Dcubed

[Hero-of-Time]

Yeah, those numbers are awful. Again, I don't know what Xbox can do as a brand moving forward. It will be interesting to see if the purchase of Activision will help increase their user base in years to come but at the moment it's just not happening for them.

It's no surprise they are looking to port games over to other consoles (more than Hi-Fi Rush rumoured to be on the way). The information that came from the Insomniac hack just goes to show how much games are costing to make. I cant imagine Microsoft are breaking even with a lot of their games, especially when Game Pass means people don't actually have to buy them. Is Game Pass even covering these development costs, as well as the deals for 3rd party games?

I wonder if we see Starfield jump over to the PlayStation ecosystem? I have zero interest in the game but I'm sure it would sell pretty well to PS5 owners.

[Hero-of-Time]

Quote

"Sea of Thieves, right---I'll say I've heard that is one that might be coming to other platforms. When I first started hearing these rumors, I was like, 'Oh this is probably about Sea of Thieves, because I've heard that could come to Switch and PlayStation.' And maybe that might be the kind of thing where like, actually all of this stuff is happening, and Microsoft is kind of trying to rejigger its strategy."

Interesting choice, if true.