EU referendum - second choice

[Charlie]

So I was a remainer who wants to remain, but above all would want to keep Scotland as part of the UK.

 

Don't worry, polls suggest there's no appetite even for a second referendum up here let alone winning one. The numbers haven't changed much since 2014.

 

Unfortuntely she is trying to call one and has put May in a hard place which is exactly the plan. The SNP must have realised there's no way they'd get their Autumn 2018 - Spring 2019 date they requested so they'll be hoping for something else, we just don't know what yet. Suggesting those dates means it looks like the Tories are the baddies (as usual) but they'll still get what they want.

[Raining_again]

With Brexit, and if Scotland secede from the UK, I'd imagine Northern Ireland would follow suit.

 

Oh bloody hell they won't lol

 

With Scotland having a nationalist party in charge they will always push for independence but the situation is different in Northern Ireland as long as you have a Unionist party in charge. If the first minster became someone from Sinn Fein then things change.

 

 

I think even if we had a SF first minister it would still be very tricky, the unionists are still out there and do not want a united Ireland. Things haven't changed that much with the people. I very much doubt NI is equipped to become its own country independent of both either. Things are very unsure for our wee country at the moment. I just hope its not a big step back for the peace process here.

[sumo73]

Oh bloody hell they won't lol

 

 

 

I think even if we had a SF first minister it would still be very tricky, the unionists are still out there and do not want a united Ireland. Things haven't changed that much with the people. I very much doubt NI is equipped to become its own country independent of both either. Things are very unsure for our wee country at the moment. I just hope its not a big step back for the peace process here.

 

Interesting to talk about this on St. Patrick's Day of all days but anyway I really hope it's not a big step back either. From a mainland UK view, the whole Northern Ireland situation should the UK leave the EU was not spoken about very much during EU Ref debates last year on TV (although I watched them on YouTube) and now people are finally seeing what the UK has got itself into.

 

I've still got family over in Northern Ireland and really hope it's not a return to the situation that it was before the Good Friday agreement otherwise Brexit is a case of one step forward and two steps back.

[Raining_again]

Interesting to talk about this on St. Patrick's Day of all days but anyway I really hope it's not a big step back either. From a mainland UK view, the whole Northern Ireland situation should the UK leave the EU was not spoken about very much during EU Ref debates last year on TV (although I watched them on YouTube) and now people are finally seeing what the UK has got itself into.

 

I've still got family over in Northern Ireland and really hope it's not a return to the situation that it was before the Good Friday agreement otherwise Brexit is a case of one step forward and two steps back.

 

I figured you must have connections here to know as much as you do

 

I'm just holding the hope that it all works out for the best for everyone involved, english, scots, welsh, & us! I'm young enough that the troubles didn't touch my life that much but from what I hear I really don't want it returning!

[MoogleViper]

I mean, google tells me the % chance of rain where I live any given day in the next couple of weeks, and how much they think will fall. As if they can actually know that... and they don't. But they can still forecast the most likely possibility according to the data they have available (or the company they buy the data from...).

 

Forecasting the weather a few days ahead, based on meteorological patterns, is a far cry from forecasting the political and economic positions of three countries 50-60 years in the future.

[dwarf]

Yeah the forecast thing doesn't stand up because 3-day weather forecasts are stupidly reliable now, and the BoE can't predict growth 6 months into the future, let alone multiple decades into the future when there's been a seismic political change like we've just seen.

 

I feel like hope is the only thing Brexiters have to offer as consolation at the moment. Before the result most economists predicted bad shocks, and now we're edging closer to leaving even leading Brexit voices are framing everything in terms of damage limitation. It just seems so obvious that free trade with our closest trade partners (proximity still matters) is a huge boost to our economy and political standing in the world. Now we're reduced to fighting for scraps from the U.S, who have a shoddy history of unfair trade deals given their self-sufficient might (we mean nothing to them), and we've also thrown away our research funding from the EU, so our science/innovation sector has also been shot to shit.

 

I don't know why people think we're in a better position to broker trade deals now we're outside of the union. Where's the justification for that argument?

Edited March 17, 2017 by dwarf

[Pestneb]

Forecasting the weather a few days ahead, based on meteorological patterns, is a far cry from forecasting the political and economic positions of three countries 50-60 years in the future.

 

From the Met office.

Long-range weather prediction

 

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

 

 

I would say the same principles apply to economic and political forecasting. The detail can't realistically be predicted (they didn't say the £ will = $x, price of bread = y, minimum wage = z, cost of healthcare, food, rent etc etc.) but a very broad general trend making several assumptions can be made. It's fairly obvious that the margin of error would be very wide for a 50/60 year prediction, and as these predictions are available to governments presumably astute governments will work towards countering negative predicted effects (such as merkel attracting immigrants in to Germany) and that is the main purpose - to inform governments and future policies.

I'm not in a position to make a further analysis and to fully discern the reliability of those predictions but... this is a discussion forum not a piece of university coursework.

 

Yeah the forecast thing doesn't stand up because 3-day weather forecasts are stupidly reliable now, and the BoE can't predict growth 6 months into the future, let alone multiple decades into the future when there's been a seismic political change like we've just seen.

 

3 day weather forecasts sure, but 6 month weather forecasts? and again the whole thing on climate change is based on macro weather forecasting, looking at trends and predicting what changes our climate will endure. longer distance forecasting produces useful, if vague data, even if it may be slightly out it is better than taking a short sighted view... but w/e.

 

I don't know why people think we're in a better position to broker trade deals now we're outside of the union. Where's the justification for that argument?

 

EU rules are set up in a protectionist manner. Take car standards. To give consumer better safety and security, better quality products? Nope, to place a barrier to entry level vehicles from around the world and protect the european car industry.

there are several tariffs in place to shift the lions share of profits from resources that Africa, Central/Southern America and Asia are rich in over to the EU, the whole fair trade thing in the EU is a bit of a farce as a result...

Like chocolate, the beans come in cheaply enough, but the profit is in the chocolate bars. Make a chocolate bar outside the EU and export to the EU, and you get a super expensive chocolate bar. That no one will buy because EU chocolate makers are able to sell similar quality chocolate at half the price.

Sugar cane is in a similar situation as most EU sugar is produced from sugar beet.

Basically if a hard brexit is pursued fairer deals can be struck with the rest of the world. Shockingly, this means we can afford fewer luxury goods, and disgustingly "3rd world" countries can start affording what we would generally consider necessities.

Of course I'm not super confident the UK will strike super fair deals that would genuinely level the playing field, but I have more confidence that they will be pushed to do so outside the EU. Ironically many remain supporters seem to be as xenophobic or inward looking as they claim leavers were, and perhaps some leavers failed to grasp how a brexit would be more beneficial (potentially) to the outside world than for Britain (economically speaking).

 

Personally I am 100% remain, purely selfishly because as a european citizen I have more rights in the UK than a simple UK citizen does (in terms of living in the UK with my wife). More idealistically I find many of the policies employed by the EU regarding subsidies within the EU and tariffs and barriers to trades outside the EU repulsive, so I'm not upset for the UK if they break free of those regulations. As an EU UK dual citizen I have the luxury of not being "trapped" to the UK so to speak, so the stakes are lower for me and I'm not so bothered tbh. Things will turn out the way they will turn out.

[Glen-i]

So going by this, it'd just be the same result? No-one's changed their mind.

 

Remain/Remain, just in case you're wondering.

[dwarf]

The Backfire Effect: When your deepest convictions are challenged by contradictory evidence, your beliefs get stronger.

 

Confirmation bias: The tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities. (Huge problem for me on Twitter, but I don't actively try to find alternative views on there even though I know it would be good to do so)

 

I wouldn't say the results are surprising, but maybe we'd see a marked change when we've actually left the EU.