Wii HD in 2011?

[Hero-of-Time]

Many a gaming website is reporting/discussing this at the moment so I thought I would post it here.

 

http://www.whattheyplay.com/blog/200...i-due-by-2011/

 

What They Play has heard from multiple sources in the game development and publishing community that Nintendo is currently showing early presentations of its next home console hardware. Apparently set to hit the market “by 2011†the new device is said to be the true “next generation†Nintendo console, and far more than a simple refresh of the current hardware. Unlike previous console transitions from Nintendo, the new system will be presented as a true successor to the Wii, and is being dubbed by those that have seen the presentation as “Wii HD.†There is no indication if this will be its eventual name, but the nature of the transition has been characterized as similar to “the shift from Game Boy to Game Boy Advance,†where familiar, key elements were left intact while the core hardware was made more powerful. It is expected by all those that we have spoken to on the subject that the new device will retain the Wii name in part.

 

While our sources are reluctant to be too specific about “Wii HD,†they have been able to divulge some (albeit predictable) generalizations. High definition visuals are assured, as is a greater emphasis on digitally distributed and backwardly compatible content, indicating that the new system will feature some form of local storage medium such as a hard drive or large flash memory solution. It has also been indicated that Nintendo’s emphasis is again on what the consumer will hold in their hands and interact with, rather than the “console†itself.

 

 

Nintendo has proven it can be extremely successful by leveraging processor technology that is not on the bleeding edge, and be more profitable and more innovative as a result. In a 2006 interview with Business Week, Nintendo visionary Shigeru Miyamoto stated, “The consensus [at Nintendo] was that power isn't everything for a console. Too many powerful consoles can't coexist. It's like having only ferocious dinosaurs. They might fight and hasten their own extinction.†Based on our conversations about “Wii HD†this attitude would seem to still prevail.

 

But why should you believe this? Everything stated so far could easily have been the result of educated guesswork or speculation. While a Nintendo representative provided the expected response that, “Nintendo does not comment on speculation or rumor,†there is additional evidence, outside this commentary, to suggest that something is going on.

 

In 2003, Nintendo declared that $34 million was spent on R&D. This figure steadily climbed to $103 million in 2006 and the following year bumped dramatically to $370 million.

 

 

Based on figures from Nintendo’s annual financial reports, the company is currently spending more than ten times as much on research and development as it was five years ago, and since the Wii was launched in 2006, R&D spending has more than tripled. While this could be attributed to any number of additional projects, the level of spending suggests that a large project is in the works. In 2003, Nintendo declared that $34 million was spent on R&D. This figure steadily climbed to $103 million in 2006 (the year that the Wii launched) and the following year bumped dramatically to $370 million. When asked to explain the escalated spending, Nintendo representatives were unable to provide comment.

 

 

The current Wii hardware is based upon processors and graphics technology supplied by IBM and AMD. These two companies have a joint development agreement together, which is described by AMD as being focused “on delivering a range of integrated platforms to serve key markets, including … gaming and media computing.â€

 

 

The joint development agreement between IBM and AMD expires on December 31, 2011 but “may be extended further by the mutual agreement of the parties.†This suggests that Nintendo will be leveraging research and development from the partnership in time to ensure that it’s new hardware will be compatible with the Wii’s current “Hollywood†and “Broadway†processors. As Microsoft learned in the transition from Xbox to Xbox 360, switching hardware vendors can make running older games on a new system a much more difficult proposition.

 

The dramatic bump in spending at Nintendo may also be reflective of Nintendo’s work on a rumored new DS, said to feature a camera and music player. Iterating on the DS in 2009 would certainly shake up the market, though given the incredible monthly sales of the device it hardly needs reinvigorating for the time being. When the Nintendo DS was launched in 2004, the worldwide installed base of the Game Boy Advance was 53 million (on top of the Game Boy’s incredibly huge 118 million.) So far, 80 million Nintendo DS units have been sold worldwide, and demand shows no sign of slowing.

 

It is unlikely that any official acknowledgement of Nintendo’s new hardware will come until at least 2009, however company president Satoru Iwata will be delivering his annual fall presentation this Wednesday.

 

It makes sense and its a sound strategy. Michael Pachter has said numerous times this is what Nintendo would do. The 1st step was to get Wii into as many houses as possible and make people familiar with the Wii brand. Next step would be to make the HD upgrade when the Wii sales start to slow down and the HD development costs are cheaper.

 

I dont expect to hear about the next Nintendo console for a very long time especially as the Wii is still selling strong but I drool at the prospect of a Zelda in HD

[Foxfear]

Hopefully with the new WiiHD you won't be obliged to buy a whole new Wii but just let it upgrade for 100 euros or so...

And I too drool at the thougth of a Metroid, Zelda or and most importantly Star Fox for Wii...

[darkjak]

I don't think that a Wii version which only has the upgrade of being able to handle HD will be out. I more think that Nintendo will make a 2011 launch of a brand new console, which can do everything the current Wii can, only that it's on par with the PS3. The reason to do this would obviously be that the ammount of current big games that don't make it to the format will reduce. As it is now, the Wii 3rd party support mostly consists of PS2/PSP ports and Wii "exclusives" (although not the exclusives the Wii fans are waiting for). That would broaden the fanbase, and pretty much kill off the competitors. All the PS3 would have left would be Blue-ray, which at least I don't give a rats ass about.

[D_prOdigy]

On the one hand, it's a cynical marketing move that saves them money and half-heartedly appeases fans.

 

On the the other, perhaps it would be a worthy purchase. They'd have to make more advanced controller technology standard (I'm saying rooting MotionPlus at least, even if it means free give-aways by that point).

 

I don't balme Nintendo for leaving HD for a generation, but it probably did catch on quicker than they were expecting to. Even with Cell and crap like that, I'd bet a selection of Wii games could more than hold their own against the "next-gen" titles if they were just in HD.

[Hellfire]

 

Seriously, this reminds me of Mario 128.

We will see a successor to the Wii after a 4-5 year lifespan? Really? Wow, I'm stunned. Dunno how people can even think this will be some sort of add on that will make the console HD.

 

It's simple, Nintendo wanted big market penetration, that meant cheaper, more acessible hardware and interface, next step, they make a more powerful console now that the new market was breached.

 

In fact, they might not have much of a choice. Wii was a big risk, which is also one of the reasons, it wouldn't be wise to be cutting edge, if it failed, they could cut their losses sooner, but doing so, they prevent Wii from having a life cycle that's larger than usual, because, even though no one took full advantage of its graphical capabilities, even when devs do, eventually the tech gap will be too big.

 

360 and PS3 could (and should, specially for Sony, if they want to see some green) have a bigger life cycle, but the Wii can't extend it much more. I don't expect a 500-600 € console (nor do I want it) though.

[Tellyn]

It'd be interesting if they could make games that run in HD compatible with the normal Wii. Doubt it's true anyway, Wii's still got years left in it.

[Zechs Merquise]

I just hope when Nintendo do update the Wii they make it on the same level as the other consoles. I love my Wii, but I'd love to play COD4 and many other really great games that we've been missing.

 

The annoying thing is after playing medal of honor on the Wii I don;t like traditional dual analog controls as uch anymore and I want to play next gen FPS games with the more immersive controls.

[ShadowV7]

Well assuming the next Xbox and if one gets released, a PS3, the graphics will likely be better.

 

If it's cheap then they will upgrade the graphics the Wii HD can do, but it will still have a gap between the other next gen consoles because Nintendo will want it affordable, cheap and low dev costs. Maybe 360 graphics is something, but I don't personally think it'll be any better than that. Just some minor improvements and devs actually making use of the Wii instead of shovelware.

[darkjak]

Just a few weeks ago, a lot of media people thought there wouldn't be a next generation of consoles for at least another decade, since the PS3 and 360 were so advanced that developers would need that long before they'll actually need more power. I never believed that, but I did believe a longer lifespan of the formats. Especially the Wii, which is a casual format. Casual players won't be happy with swapping format, and that could cause Nintendo quite a pickle.

Imagine if the casuals stick with the Wii rather than buying Wii2. That would mean that the Wii2 might be a fairly big flop, yet again causing 3rd parties to not make games for a Nintendo format (for what would be the FOURTH consecutive generation, or as a casual player would put it: TWENTY FUCKING YEARS!).

But on the other hand, a console on par with the PS3 would mean more ports of games that we actually want (the REAL Final Fantasy games, GTA, Bioshock and other AAA games).

 

Nintendo have put themselves in quite a jam. The Wii2 could be the N64 all over again (nearly complete loss of third party support, shrinking sales numbers), OR it could be the NES (98% of the game market, virtually every single game in development is for the format in one way or another) all over again. The Wii2 might succede if Nintendo try to do like Sega did with the Genesis and the Dreamcast: release it years ahead of the competition, and call it the first console of the next generation. If the Wii2 will be released after the PS4/Xbox720, or at a time when footage of those formats software have been released, chances are that it'll fail.

[Hellfire]

Nintendo put itself in a jam? Really? Japans 2nd or 3rd most valuable company, the 10th largest software company in the world, the company that ALWAYS makes profit, which by the way is soaring and also, their consoles are the hottest selling as is their software. A jam? More like a pool of money.

 

Ignoring that jam part, we're talking about the normal console life cycle. 2011 (oh and btw this is speculation, there was no confirmation, this is pretty much ridiculous, I don't get why people are paying attention to this) is 3 years away. If the next console launches end 2011, like Wii was at the end of 2006, it's the normal 5 year span. For a 250$ console. No one will care, because 1st)the ones who bought Wii because it's cheap, they'll most likely be content with just a Wii for years and years, considering they're out of the loop and 2nd)A lot of gamers spend that in a month or two in generic shooter and racing clones. Also, no 3rd parties for the 4th consecutive gen? Wake up, 3rd party support increased a lot for the Wii. Not in quality no, but in quantity, no doubt.

[mcj metroid]

seriously i dont plan to live that long ha

 

too far away but yes It will stupidly be nintendos next console that will use it..Nintendo are behind in this one........aswell

[Zechs Merquise]

Nintendo put itself in a jam? Really? Japans 2nd or 3rd most valuable company, the 10th largest software company in the world, the company that ALWAYS makes profit, which by the way is soaring and also, their consoles are the hottest selling as is their software. A jam? More like a pool of money.

 

Just to support your point Nintendo $2,594 million, Microsoft made a loss of $574 million and Sony made a massive loss of $1,255 million (hahahahah).

 

As you can see, Sony and Microsoft are actually making a loss in the console game at the moment. Sony in fact are losing over a billion a year. Big money, which if it continues, will we even see a PS4?

 

The fact is, Sony and Microsoft made their consoles so expensive to produce (due to graphics hardware) that they make a huge loss on each console. They aim to make the money back on software sales. However with the huge costs of software development for those consoles they aren't making back the money they hoped for.

 

Nintendo however make money on every Wii sold, and also on the software which is much cheaper to develop.

 

As the PS3 and the 360 to a lesser extent came into the market at such hight prices (but were still making a large loss), as they have had to cut prices to keep in the game they are making bigger losses each time they get a spike in sales.

 

When people talk about next gen consoles, there will be a Nintendo home console after the Wii. I'd also put my money on there being a follow up to he XBOX360, but a PS4? We shall see.

[david.dakota]

As you can see, Sony and Microsoft are actually making a loss in the console game at the moment. Sony in fact are losing over a billion a year.

 

Sony are in a very different position though. They've gambled with including Blu-ray (i think thats the most expensive component of PS3), and thats paid off with BD now established as the HiDef format for the future. Sony will now be taking a slice of every Blu-ray Disk sold, regardless of whether its played on a standard BD Player or the PS3. Its not just games which are a source of income for Sony now, and thats going to prove very valuable to them.

[The-chosen-one]

yeah but they both said they are not really interested in a New console a new console is not really needed for sony like they said they are just using 40% of their consoles power.... when will they unleash their secret power then hahah

[darkjak]

Nintendo put itself in a jam? Really? Japans 2nd or 3rd most valuable company, the 10th largest software company in the world, the company that ALWAYS makes profit, which by the way is soaring and also, their consoles are the hottest selling as is their software. A jam? More like a pool of money.

 

Also, no 3rd parties for the 4th consecutive gen? Wake up, 3rd party support increased a lot for the Wii. Not in quality no, but in quantity, no doubt.

 

Err... A pool of money? Right now with the current Wii, Nintendo are making lots of money. However, old Nintendo fans and core gamers feel less and less appreciated. If Nintendo release the Wii2 before the competition releases XB720 and PS4, then this'll turn since it'll be easier to port big name titles. If Nintendo does like they've done this generation, aka wait form Microsoft to go first, then they will have problems. There's no guarantee that the format will be popular among the casuals (the SNES was popular well after the N64 release because the casuals of the time didn't feel a need to swap generations), and since we still won't be getting the contemporary hits, the core will be put off too.

 

 

 

Third party support increased, yes. But as I said before, in the form of PS2/PSP ports and "exclusives" only the gullible (AKA casuals) will buy.

 

Let's make a short list of "multi format" titles the Wii isn't getting:

Call of Duty 4

Final Fantasy XIII

Assassins Creed (not really a game I liked, but still a shame we didn't get it)

Army of Two

Collin McRae Dirt

Grid

Hawx

Saints Row 2

GTA 4

Brothers in Arms: HH

Mercenaries 2

Red Alert 2

Godfather 2

Burnout: Paradise

 

And that's not even close to the complete list.

 

Nintendo HAVE to do something so that this won't repeat during next generation. If Sony decide to not release the PS4 untill let's say... 2015, then there will be no problem. Then we'll be getting supperior versions of contemporary games, rather than ports of last gen games or exclusive shovelware.

[DCK]

2011 is way too early for a new console. The Wii could sing out until 2013 at this rate.

 

Nintendo might as well wait two years after the PS4 and Xbox 720 come out, to release a console with similar power that isn't a surrogate vacuum cleaner and is actually profitable. The Wii will be competitive enough.

 

HD is overrated for Wii games anyway.

[conzer16]

Since the Wii launched, Nintendo have more that tripled the R&D budget. Wii HD will be on par with PS3 graphics with motion controls carried from Wii.

 

Cant wait myself

[Zechs Merquise]

Sony are in a very different position though. They've gambled with including Blu-ray (i think thats the most expensive component of PS3), and thats paid off with BD now established as the HiDef format for the future. Sony will now be taking a slice of every Blu-ray Disk sold, regardless of whether its played on a standard BD Player or the PS3. Its not just games which are a source of income for Sony now, and thats going to prove very valuable to them.

 

Sony need the money, losing over a billion dollars is a big hit for any company. What's more Sony's computer games division used to be their most profitable arm of the comapny with TVs and DVD players becoming less profitable as the market has become flooded with cheap and good quality home entertainment systems.

 

As for discussion over the next generation of games... well it's a bit like an arms race. All three companies will have their systems in development, all three will also have their eyes on the competition, once one is out the others will want theirs out too as not to miss out on market space. But, as I said earlier, if both Sony and Microsoft continue to post loses like that, who can guarentee one won;t drop out like Sega did?

[Emasher]

So the question is, if Sony and MS drop out. Who will take their place?

[Hellfire]

It's still no jam, because a)as usual you give to much importance to the never-satisfied "core" gamer, which by the way, would buy the console anyway and whine anyway and b)they never lost money so far, even when they were "in the shit" in the eyes of the public with N64 and GC.

[The-chosen-one]

wasnt apple saying about joining the Console war?

[Emasher]

wasnt apple saying about joining the Console war?

 

No, just the handheld war.

 

They're one of the more likely companies to step up the the plate if Sony or MS drop out though I think.

[Grazza]

This is 100% good news (well, rumour), in my opinion. Five years is a long time, and I'm sure the general public will buy the machine when they see Wii Sports 2 running on it.

 

As for the controller, I hope MotionPlus (or better) is in both the remote and nunchuk. If both sides have full rotational control, we can have the Mirror Shield again in Zelda and motion control will have fully superceded the old style!

[darkjak]

It's still no jam, because a)as usual you give to much importance to the never-satisfied "core" gamer, which by the way, would buy the console anyway and whine anyway and b)they never lost money so far, even when they were "in the shit" in the eyes of the public with N64 and GC.

 

First of all I'd like to say that a majority of all people whom buy consoles are core gamers, so you should not try to undermine the value of that demographic.

 

The problem is that the core is the only market guaranteed to buy the new format. Casuals will be likely to keep their Wii for as long as it works, or until they grow tired of games. Ask my mum, she still has a nearly 10 year old VHS-player, even though she could buy a DVD-player for virtually no cash at all, or even better: a blue-ray player. But she doesent feel the need to play the latest, because she doesent have that big of an interrest in movies. The VHS player plays the old movies she loves and already has. Grandma still used an early 80's casette deck until like 2005, even though it couldn't play CD's and the audio was crap.

 

The pickle would be, what if Nintendos next gen console just won't sell. Like my teacher said, for casuals, the Wii is a simple gadget that people pick up and play maybe for a couple hours a week when they don't have anything better to do. They treat it like a DVD-player. The pickle is, what the f**k can Nintendo do to persuade these people, who don't give a s**t, to buy a brand new console and pay that money all over again?

 

If Nintendo make an early release, the core will be happy because they'll be able to buy the same games as they do for the PS3/360. Hence, the core cannot possibly be unhappy. Since the Wii2 will be easy to port to AND be the successor to the best selling format of all time, there will be no valid reason not to release all the big 3rd party games for the format.

However to make tha casuals buy a next gen console, I'd say that the release would have to be really late. Like 2020 late. And there would have to be a new revolution in simplifying controls, like mind controlled games or camera controls, only a couple of hundred times better than the eyetoy games.

 

 

If Sony and MS keel over, I think that maybe a Sega-EA collaboration could appear.

[Hellfire]

How is that a pickle? A console not selling is always a risk. In fact a product not selling is always a risk. When they release the new console, which is a given considering it's been like this since the dawn of mankind, most likely much stronger graphically, the core will again be enticed, because we all know how things work. Can't get the "casuals" back? Well, some will keep going, it's upstream marketing, the others that won't care about games no matter what already bought their Wiis and DSs, the Wii will have lived its normal cycle and done its job. Problem solved. Or better yet, there never was a problem. The reason why Nintendo always turns profit is because they actually think before screaming around "CELL! Blue Ray! Emotion Engine!" and make incredibly sound and intelligent business decisions.