The War/Panic Thread

[Shino]

Fucking Russians. Moved on Georgia before they could join the EU.

[Guest Maase]

Georgians signed the Cease-Fire thing...

 

Let's hope Russian does the same.

[MoogleViper]

Thank you fish.

 

They are up to something. As i mentioned in a previous post South Ossetia is very close to the BTC oil pipeline. In the even of a large scale conflict with the west they'd be able to strike at the pipeline quickly, removing one of our main fuel resources. South Ossetia also makes a great base with which to strike southwards through Georgia and in to Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Essentially it's a Russian gateway to the south making attacks a lot easier.

 

What's the importance of the BTC pipeline?

[blender]

its the ONLY one that passes through western friendly countries. The others go through russia.

[MoogleViper]

its the ONLY one that passes through western friendly countries. The others go through russia.

 

So if Russia controls Georgia then they will control our oil?

 

How influential is this pipeline? How does it compare to our own oil reserves?

[Guest Maase]

Georgian city of Gori falling to Russian military as territorial crisis spreads beyond breakaway region, Georgian officials say.

 

DAMN!!! Georgians already signed "Cease-Fire", why don't you do the same, Russians?

[The fish]

Ok, A lil' update on the situation: According the Reuters, the BBC and AFP, Russia has attacked Georgia proper through Abkhazia, attacking the town and base at Sanaki, on the main road from Poti to Tblisi, effectively slicing the country in half. Elsewhere, the Russians have moved out of South Ossetia into Gori, a town which is at least 15 miles within indisputable Georgian territory, and are engaging Georgian forces there. Georgia has launched a massed attack with helicopter gunships on the area surrounding the regional capital of South Ossetia, in what is presumably a delaying action to allow it's forces pulling out of South Ossetia to regroup and reorganise.

 

Elsewhere, the Georgian President, Saakashvili, has made a public call for firmer support from the international community, and has talked publicly of systematic murder by the Russian forces against Georgians in Abkhazia, using point-blank executions of civilians. Either the Russian deputy foreign minister, or the Russian ambassador to Nato (reports conflict - possibly the same man for all I know) has called Saakashvili a "war criminal", and has sighted that as the reason for not being able to talk to the Georgian government. The Russian Deputy President has dismissed the EU-backed ceasefire agreement signed by the Georgians.

 

On a mildly amusing note, I just watched an interview by BBC News with the Russian deputy ambassador to NATO, and, when asked what countries had given their support for Russia's actions, he claimed there were many, but was, oddly, unable to name a single one...

 

 

Map time!

 

That Russian fleet, by the way, now has a long journey home, as Ukraine has barred their return to their base at Sevastopol, and will have to be friendly with Turkey (a NATO member and close friend of the EU), either Britain, Spain and Morocco or Egypt, Djibouti and Yeman, and then either Norway or Sweden and Denmark. That's a lot of EU countries, so they'd have to either play nice or take Poti. Unfortunately for the Georgian port, Russia doesn't look like it wants to play nice.

[Emasher]

DAMN!!! Georgians already signed "Cease-Fire", why don't you do the same, Russians?

 

Probably because Russia actually wants to invade Georgia.

[Guest Maase]

Those Russians are really planing something, if they signed the Cease-Fire, everything would finish...

[Jonnas]

Crap, this is looking worse by the minute.

 

Of course, now that the invasion has started, they're not going back. They're after something (probably that pipe, as some people here mentioned).

[The fish]

Crap, this is looking worse by the minute.

 

Of course, now that the invasion has started, they're not going back. They're after something (probably that pipe, as some people here mentioned).

 

Perhaps, but I feel that the Russians may be aiming to simply screw up Georgia, in order to put it below the standards required for entry into NATO and the EU, both of which, especially the former, were very much expected by all parties.

 

Oh, and the Georgians are currently pulling out of Gori, and the Russians have occupied the local interior ministry in Zugdidi in the west of Georgia (see the map I posted).

 

If you include Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of Georgia, as the UN does, then a majority of Georgian territory is currently occupied by Russian forces, according to Saakashvili.

[Jonnas]

Perhaps, but I feel that the Russians may be aiming to simply screw up Georgia, in order to put it below the standards required for entry into NATO and the EU, both of which, especially the former, were very much expected by all parties.

 

Hmm... You have a good point. I do hope that's their only objective. It's the lesser of the evils.

 

They could be only trying to seize control of that northern part of Georgia... But I really don't know what to expect, now.

[Falcon_BlizZACK]

*Plays Hell March*

 

Getting interesting... Are civilians getting caught up in this?

[McPhee]

Well this is bad shit. Now we just need to wait and see if Russia wants Georgia for itself or is just trying to bugger the country's military up. There's always a third possibility. From their point of view they might be removing an enemy of Russia from power. They seem convinced that he is a war criminal and there is evidence to suggest that Georgian forces were targeting civilian targets in an attempt to quell the S. Ossetian people. I wonder, if the world's power was tipped in Russia's favour would we be seeing the Georgians as the enemy?

 

The Georgians have been quite reckless through all of this. To put another way imagine this situation. Our government makes a load of policies that shun Scotland and Wales. Both of those regions rebel and set up their own governments, supported financially and militarily by the USA. 12 years later England send troops to quell the rebellions, killing anyone who stands in their way. Loads of civilians end up dead, city blocks are destroyed etc. America then sends troops over to help fight England back.

It's quite an obvious out come, especially given Russia have been waiting on an excuse to attack Georgia. They should really stop now, Georgia won't try it again! I know fine well they won't though, they want Saakashvili out of power and S. Ossetia either independant or as part of Russia (it'll be under Russian control either way).

 

Oh yeah, and this is the resource problem:

 

 

There's oil and gas going through Georgia. The BTC oil pipeline is the only oil line that goes to Europe without going through Russia. Not sure about the gas line though, will have to check that. It currently supplies 1% of the worlds oil, but its not running at capacity yet (or at all at the moment thanks to the damn Kurdish terrorists that blew part of it up last week!). Come 2009 it'll be supplying 1 million barrels a day! Combined with the Russian oil lines it would make quite a dent in our oil supply if Russia ever went to war with Europe. We'd be relying on oil moving through Israel and stuff produced from inside Europe instead, and America would have to look elsewhere for most of it's oil (not a problem really, it's not even touched the Alaskan reserves of oil and gas yet and that is one of the biggest in the world!)

 

I doubt Turkey is on their list - Turkey is a member of NATO.

 

I wasn't saying that Russia are looking to take over any country in particular. I was just saying that in the event of a large scale war that S. Ossetia makes a great place to strike at those nations from.

[Jonnas]

Well this is bad shit. Now we just need to wait and see if Russia wants Georgia for itself or is just trying to bugger the country's military up. There's always a third possibility. From their point of view they might be removing an enemy of Russia from power. They seem convinced that he is a war criminal and there is evidence to suggest that Georgian forces were targeting civilian targets in an attempt to quell the S. Ossetian people. I wonder, if the world's power was tipped in Russia's favour would we be seeing the Georgians as the enemy?

 

The Georgians have been quite reckless through all of this. To put another way imagine this situation. Our government makes a load of policies that shun Scotland and Wales. Both of those regions rebel and set up their own governments, supported financially and militarily by the USA. 12 years later England send troops to quell the rebellions, killing anyone who stands in their way. Loads of civilians end up dead, city blocks are destroyed etc. America then sends troops over to help fight England back.

It's quite an obvious out come, especially given Russia have been waiting on an excuse to attack Georgia. They should really stop now, Georgia won't try it again! I know fine well they won't though, they want Saakashvili out of power and S. Ossetia either independant or as part of Russia (it'll be under Russian control either way).

 

Well, no doubt that Georgia acted wrongly towards S. Ossetia. But this conflict got beyond that. If it was all about S. Ossetia, Russia would've signed the cease-fire, no?

[McPhee]

Maybe, but then again maybe they are bored of talking. Sixteen years of talking and trying to solve this matter diplomatically has got them nowhere. They were making progress towards a peace deal with Eduard Shevardnadze, but then the Rose Revolution happened and Mikheil Saakashvili came in to power. He's pretty stuck to his guns, he promised that Abkhazia and S. Ossetia would be back under Georgian control under his presidency. Negotiations for the past 4 years have been pretty pointless, he isn't going to get what he wants and he won't compromise. In a 2006 referendum by the S. Ossetian goverment 99% of South Ossetians voted in favour of independance, thats an overwhelming number!

 

The Russians are also saying that Saakashvili is a war criminal. They won't admit it, but they want him removing from power. Speaking from their point of view if the forces are already there then they may as well get on with removing him. It solves what they see as 2 major problems.

 

They want to fight their case at the U.N. so this is the sort of stuff that they will be fighting with. They believe that they are in the right, and regardless of other reasons (resources, strategic importance of land, increase in power etc.) if they genuinely do have a case with these two points then i hop the U.N. supports their decision. If not then they should pull back to S. Ossetia, negotiate independance and make it clear that they will use force to gain it if necessary. The international community likely won't like any of this, an independant Ossetia would be a close ally of Russia in an important geographical area.

[The fish]

The whole "they want independence, so we should let them have it after you attacked them" argument that Russia is using doesnt hold much weight, especially once you realise it's a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Chechnya, anyone?

 

EDIT: The Foreign Minister of Italy, Franco Frattini announced that Italy was ready to send troops to South Ossetia if the European Union decides to intervene on Monday. Frattini said he would consider deploying Italian soldiers to the region in the event that French Foreign Minsiter Bernard Kouchner recommends EU involvement after his mediation mission to Tbilisi and Moscow this week. However, Frattini stressed that Italy could not support the creation of a "European anti-Russian coalition" over the conflict. He also told ANSA (an Italian news site) he was "optimistic" for a positive resolution to the crisis following telephone consultations with foreign ministers from the other G7 countries.

 

Source

[Chuck]

Its all over folks.

 

President Medvedev has announced Russia is ending its military operation in Georgia, according to reports coming out of the Kremlin.

[McPhee]

The whole "they want independence, so we should let them have it after you attacked them" argument that Russia is using doesnt hold much weight, especially once you realise it's a case of the pot calling the kettle black. Chechnya, anyone?

 

So Russia's behaviour in Chechnya means they aren't doing the right thing here? RIIIIGHT. Thats a naive view to take, there isn't a nation on the face of the planet that isn't, hasn't been and wouldn't be hypocritical in exactly the same way. With Chechnya they stand to loose something, with S. Ossetia they stand to gain.

 

S. Ossetian independance benefits Russia, thats why they've been so keen to help out over the past 16 years. We should just be grateful that they did step in, if they didn't it'd have been a slaughter! Im willing to bet the death toll would have been A LOT higher. Georgian forces would have taken weeks to secure the majour Ossetian cities and then years to fight rebels out of the countryside. There's also plenty of reports saying that they were firing on housing blocks from the minute they crossed the border, killing civilians (so far unconfirmed by western reporters, they are all in Georgia pointing the blame at Russia and refusing to even consider another side exists to the story).

 

Russia have done what they set out to do, they've stopped the S. Ossetian war and made it impossible for the Georgians to return for at least a couple of years. I guess they'd rather that they were allowed to overthrow the government as well, but they seem to have given up on that idea because of the amount of international pressure on them. If they moved on the capital then EU and possibly UN troops would have been moved in on the assumption that Russia was trying to conquer the country.

 

Whats this? An impartial article from the BBC?!?!?!? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7555155.stm Not a bad read really.

[Jonnas]

McPhee makes a good point.

 

Of course, now that Russia has stopped, we're left to wonder exactly what was their goal:

 

1. They wanted to protect S.Ossetia, and went to great lengths to send a message of "leave them alone"

 

2. They wanted to prevent Georgia from joining NATO, and used S.Ossetia as an excuse to stir the country

 

3. A mix of both. It started with 1, and then realised they could kill two birds with one stone.

[Shino]

So Russia's behaviour in Chechnya means they aren't doing the right thing here? RIIIIGHT. Thats a naive view to take, there isn't a nation on the face of the planet that isn't, hasn't been and wouldn't be hypocritical in exactly the same way. With Chechnya they stand to loose something, with S. Ossetia they stand to gain.

 

Doing both at the same time? I don't think many nation did that.

[The fish]

So Russia's behaviour in Chechnya means they aren't doing the right thing here? RIIIIGHT. Thats a naive view to take, there isn't a nation on the face of the planet that isn't, hasn't been and wouldn't be hypocritical in exactly the same way. With Chechnya they stand to loose something, with S. Ossetia they stand to gain.

 

Ah, the old "everyone's doing, so that makes it OK" argument. A favourite!

 

Russia has announced it's "pulling out of South Ossettia". Notice who they didn't say "Georgia"?

[McPhee]

Ah, the old "everyone's doing, so that makes it OK" argument. A favourite!

 

Russia has announced it's "pulling out of South Ossettia". Notice who they didn't say "Georgia"?

 

No, it's the old "doing what is in the interests of ones own country" thing actually. Russia's actions make perfect sense for Russia, and it also happens to make perfect sense for the residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The only people who are pissed off are the Georgians and their allies because both have lost something through this war.

 

Russia have signed up to a six point plan detailing the following:

• No more use of force
  
• Stop all military actions for good
  
• Free access to humanitarian aid
  
• Georgian troops return to their places of permanent deployment
  
• Russian troops return to pre-conflict positions
  
• International talks about future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia

Maybe peace at last? Hopefully the international community do what is right for a change rather than what limits Russian influence.

[Jonnas]

Well, Georgia signed the peace treaty, and the war is over (thankfully)

 

Hopefully, a peaceful solution regarding S.Ossetia will come along soon.

[Indigo]

It's not over yet.

 

Georgian villages burned and looted as Russian tanks advance

Mood of panic as eyewitnesses say ceasefire being broken by Russian military and 'irregulars'

 

 

Villages in Georgia were being burned and looted as Russian tanks followed by "irregulars" advanced from the breakaway province of South Ossetia, eyewitnesses said today.

 

"People are fleeing, there is a mood of absolute panic. The idea there is a ceasefire is ridiculous," Luke Harding, the Guardian's correspondent, said.

 

Russia denied any advance, however Georgian authorities claimed that about 50 tanks and armoured vehicles were near the strategically important town of Gori.

 

Harding, watching villages near Gori burn, said witnesses had told him Russian military, including at least 25 tanks, had moved from the Russian-controlled South Ossetia into the villages.

 

"They asked villagers to hang white flags or handkerchiefs outside their houses if they did not want to be shot, they say."

 

The tanks had passed through the village of Rekha at about 11.20am local time. "Behind them (say eyewitnesses) is a whole column of irregulars who locals say are Chechens, Cossacks and Ossetians.

 

"Eyewitnesses say they are looting, killing and burning. These irregulars have killed three people and set fire to villages. They have been taking away young boys and girls," said Harding, watching smoke rise from another village, Karaleti.

 

It appeared that Russian tanks had entered Gori, targeting military installations, some built with Nato money...

 

Full article from The Guardian.