Your opinions of Luck?

[Atomic Boo]

Even before reading any posts in this thread, virtually everyone will have been thinking 'i dont really believe in luck, but id say if i did i would be an unlucky person'

 

im saying that because most people think they're unlucky, when evidently, starving people in Africa are very unlucky.

[Indigo]

im saying that because most people think they're unlucky, when evidently, starving people in Africa are very unlucky.

I'm not too keen on such a view of the world. It suggests that someone's got to be unlucky, and so the circumstances of those "unlucky" people should somehow be accepted as the status quo, as an unchangable fact of life. As if it is fate.

 

I don't think it should be said that it is "bad luck" for someone to be born in a specific country, when in fact those reasons why it could be considered as such are a consequence of the greed and selfishness that is ingrained into the world's philosophy, and therefore are not random.

But isn't luck just a form of chance?

Yes, I thought about this just after I made my post. Read my edit.

[MoogleViper]

Personally I think that in most cases people who claim they are unlucky just see the bad things that happen and vica versa. I also think that if you get out there and go for it then you will be "lucky". If you do that and and things still seem to go bad then you have more right to call yourself "unlucky".

[Rummy]

There's not such thing as luck, its just that we don't have another word to describe 'lucky' things. Like when the ball hits the net court in tennis and you win the point because of it, its not lucky, it happened because you didn't hit the ball properly.

 

 

I read something o n the internet a few weeks ago about luck actually, some guy took 100 people who thought they were lucky and 100 people who thought they were unlucky and gave them all a newspaper to read. Inside the newspaper there was something that said if you see this you win £100. I can't remember the numbers, but a significantly larger amount of the people who thought themselves as lucky saw it than people who thought they were unlucky.

 

He then took the unlucky people and took them through a course to make themselves feel 'lucky' and most of them thought they were being more lucky after that course. It's more a mental state than anything else.

 

Lol, the first bit made me laugh. I think luckiness is actually just recognising and capitalizing on oppurtunities. As for that thing with a newspaper, it was done by Richard Wiseman, he talks about it in The Luck Factor.

 

Basically, he gave them a newspaper and asked them to count all the photos in it then tell him after how many there were. However, on the second page of the newspaper it had a half page of all caps saying 'STOP COUNTING - THERE ARE 43 PHOTOGRAPHS IN THIS NEWSPAPER.' and halfway through the newspaper he had another 'advert' taking up half a page which said 'STOP COUNTING, TELL THE EXPERIMENTER YOU HAVE SEEN THIS AND WIN £100.'

Apparently every single person missed both of these messages when doing the task, because they were too busy focused on looking for and counting photographs, that they missed the other 'oppurtunities'. After they did it, he asked them if they'd noticed anything unusual in the newspaper, and when they said they hadn't, he asked them to flick through the paper again. He doesn't mention numbers, but he says that within seconds people noticed the first message, and shortly after notice the second message as well, most probably kicking themselves they just lost the oppurtunity of the easiest £100 they'd get in a while.

 

Some more stuff in the same vein is outlined here.

[Platty]

The only luck I have is now and again whilst playing poker

[Indigo]

The only luck I have is now and again whilst playing poker

Ah, poker. What I love about it is that while there's of course an element of chance, a skillful player will nearly always prevail.

 

For example, I had a game last friday. It's the third hand. I have A-2 clubs, my friend to the left of me has 6-8 clubs. The flop is 3-5-7. We both have a flush, me ace-high. There's some betting and raising, I have the nuts so I'm happy. The turn is a 9 of clubs. My friend has a straight flush, he's slow-playing it so he doesn't make his move just yet. The river is the Ace of spades.

 

My friend is all-in. I know there's only two combinations that can beat me. 4-6 clubs and 6-8 clubs. The chance of drawing a straight flush is incredibly remote: 0.0311%. I'd never seen one in a proper game until then. Probability is in my favour. Do I call with the outcome of either doubling my stack or getting knocked out of the game, or do I fold having already betted a good half of my stack?

 

You might say if anything this exposes how much of a game of chance poker is. My friend got very lucky to draw a straight flush, you could say. The fact is though, the cards are only half of poker. The other half is psychology and interpretation. Making that decision, I had to think for a good few minutes. I had played the hand out in my head. I stared my opponent in the eyes, and made a few remarks to try to pry some information out of him.

 

In the end, I folded. Another player, with less experience than myself, called. When he turned over those cards, I was happy. Laying down my very strong hand was one of the best moves I've made. After that hand I managed to build my stack back up with some solid play to near-equal of my friend. It confirmed to me that it is a game of skill.

 

Apologies for the length of this anecdote. Poker just fascinates me, as if you hadn't guessed.

[Supergrunch]

I think the best definition of luck is to say that someone is lucky when something based on probability has a favourable outcome for them. However, some people seem to have more luck than others. I think this is itself a more complex form of luck.

 

However, I'm not totally free of superstition... sometimes it just seems right.

[Charlie]

I was thinking, not so much to do with luck, but, there is exactly the same chance of the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 coming up in the lottery as 6 completely random numbers, but I doubt anyone will ever pick 1 2 3 4 5 6 because they think the chances are much less.

 

Also, if you flip a coin 1000 times you would think it would be roughly 500 heads and 500 tails, but its the same chance of being 1000 heads and 0 tails than 500 of each...

[Supergrunch]

Also, if you flip a coin 1000 times you would think it would be roughly 500 heads and 500 tails, but its the same chance of being 1000 heads and 0 tails than 500 of each...

That's not quite right. Every time you flip the coin there is a 0.5 chance of it being heads, so if you flip 1000 coins, then the expected value is 500, but that doesn't mean it actually has to be this value.

 

However, the more the coin deviates from the expected values, the higher the chance the coin is weighted. This chance can be determined with the chi-squared test, and if a coin came up with 1000 heads, this test would determine that there is a very low chance of the coin being unbiased.

 

The lottery thing is right though. It shows you how unlikely you are to win.

[Charlie]

That's not quite right. Every time you flip the coin there is a 0.5 chance of it being heads, so if you flip 1000 coins, then the expected value is 500, but that doesn't mean it actually has to be this value.

 

However, the more the coin deviates from the expected values, the higher the chance the coin is weighted. This chance can be determined with the chi-squared test, and if a coin came up with 1000 heads, this test would determine that there is a very low chance of the coin being unbiased.

 

But each flip doesn't affect the next flip if you know what I mean. There's a 0.5 chance of it being heads with each flip.

[Supergrunch]

But each flip doesn't affect the next flip if you know what I mean. There's a 0.5 chance of it being heads with each flip.

Yep, that's right. But the chances are that 1000 0.5 chances won't come out the same way all 1000 times.

[Charlie]

Yep, that's right. But the chances are that 1000 0.5 chances won't come out the same way all 1000 times.

 

That's the same as the lottery thing though? It's got the same chance of being heads 1000 times and tails 0 times than 1 2 3 4 5 6 has of coming up over 6 other numbers....

[Supergrunch]

That's the same as the lottery thing though? It's got the same chance of being heads 1000 times and tails 0 times than 1 2 3 4 5 6 has of coming up over 6 other numbers....

No, it's not. 1000 fair coin tosses can be modeled by binomial(1000,0.5). With this model, the chance of this being 1000 heads is almost 0, whereas the chance of this being 500 heads is 0.0252.

 

For the lottery, the chances of 6 particular numbers coming up is (6!)*((1/49)*(1/48)*(1/47)*(1/46)*(1/47)*(1/46)) which is 0.00000007151.

[Rummy]

Supergrunch, stop right there! I've been after someone like you for a while, could you explain to me(over a PM maybe, to stop this thread getting cluttered with it) how to work out lottery probabilities? Say, well, you did 6 numbers there, but stuff like the chances of matching 3 numbers, or 4 etc. Not just the probabilities, but how they're worked out.

 

I was thinking, not so much to do with luck, but, there is exactly the same chance of the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 coming up in the lottery as 6 completely random numbers, but I doubt anyone will ever pick 1 2 3 4 5 6 because they think the chances are much less.

 

Also, if you flip a coin 1000 times you would think it would be roughly 500 heads and 500 tails, but its the same chance of being 1000 heads and 0 tails than 500 of each...

I think I know what you're saying, but I'm not sure if it's right. The chances of there being 1000 heads in a row, would be 0.5^1000, I think. Say we flip a coin 3 times;

HHH (1) 3 H

HHT (2) 2 H, 1 T

HTH (2)

THH (2)

HTT (3) 1 H, 2 T

TTH (3)

THT (3)

TTT (4) 3 T

 

Those are the different orders/combinations right? There's 8 of them. The chances of getting all heads(1)? 1 in 8. The chances of all tails(4)? 1 in 8. The chances of 2 heads and 1 tails(2)? 3 in 8. The chances of 1 head and 2 tails(3)? 3 in 8. That makes 8 in 8 added together, which is 1. The point? That 2 of those combinations are 3 times more likely than the other two, it's the same with 1000 tosses, getting 1000 heads is not likely. The most likely scenario is 500 of each, and if I'm not mistaken should form like a normal distribution bell curve sort of thing. Anyway, this is getting off topic.

EDIT: I'm not sure why I was stupid and used a 3 toss example instead of a 2 toss example. HH, TT, HT and TH. 50% chance of a heads and a tails, only 25% of 2 heads, and 25% of two tails.

 

I think the best definition of luck is to say that someone is lucky when something based on probability has a favourable outcome for them. However, some people seem to have more luck than others. I think this is itself a more complex form of luck.

 

However, I'm not totally free of superstition... sometimes it just seems right.

I think the thing that causes the difference between people is sort of 'being in it to win it'. One person plays the lottery, the chances of them winning the jackpot? 14 million to 1. Another person doesn't buy a ticket, their chances? 0. Who has the higher chance of winning the lottery? The person who takes the risk, lucky people take those risks, and because they take them alot, some of them pay off and they get a bigger payoff and therefore think themselves lucky.

 

An example I considered the other day, when I was walking to the station to get my train to uni as normal. I walked round the corner, and saw the train already pulled in at the station. Here comes my first choice, do I run for it? I decided yes, and unlucky person may assume they have already lost the chance to catch it, and would never manage to get it even if they ran. I'm running, at the top of the steps now, and the doors start beeping, do I just stop to save myself the hassle or keep going? Some people would give up now, those beeps for the doors don't last long and you probably aren't very likely to make that train. Me? I kept on running, and slightly mission impossible stylee, jumped through a me shaped gap between the doors as they was closing, then slipped on the train as I landed and looked like a tit, but at least I managed to catch my train and saved myself waiting god knows how long for another, at least 15 minutes in the freezing cold. Had I not started running, or stopped halfway, I'd have cut off all chance of me getting that train. I think those are the sort of things that make the differences between lucky and unlucky people.

I have another example too in fact, which I'll save for another time. I think these scenarios are quite common and all over the place, but I don't think people realise how many lucky breaks they get, and thus get into the 'unlucky' frame of mind where they don't even bother trying having already decided they'll fail, and thus have no chance of achieving what they want.

[Charlie]

No, it's not. 1000 fair coin tosses can be modeled by binomial(1000,0.5). With this model, the chance of this being 1000 heads is almost 0, whereas the chance of this being 500 heads is 0.0252.

 

For the lottery, the chances of 6 particular numbers coming up is (6!)*((1/49)*(1/48)*(1/47)*(1/46)*(1/47)*(1/46)) which is 0.00000007151.

 

Sorry, I didn't mean they had the same probabilty even though that's what I said. I know what I mean.

 

I meant that... meh, I can't explain it. You win.

[The3rdChildren]

There are some neat posts in this thread. Good reading, folks.

[Atomic Boo]

Wow Rummy! you've been doing your research.

Anyway, at the end of your post it explained what i think about a person who considers themselves lucky/unlucky.

People who think they're unlucky are usually not very positive and reflect on times when they've made the wrong decision.

People who think they're lucky are usually positive, and look at the bigger picture and reflect on times when they've made the right decision.