Yvonne

@Jon Dedede @DuD @Jimbob Repeating and mentioning so that you all have a chance to see: please either say 1. I will not kill 2. I might kill 3. I will definitely kill I will randomly kill from the list of people who haven't answered this question. If everyone answers, I will not kill anyone.

If nothing changes before the end of the day, I will be killing one of the following: Tales Sheikah Jon Dedede DuD Jimbob Mr-Paul

My suspicion for Rummy is only slight, and it's only because I couldn't follow his logic in an earlier post. All my suspicions are currently slight. Game theory assumes everyone [can]/[can be bothered to] reason out what the most logical and beneficial move for each individual involved is, then make decisions based on that. It works best when everyone has the same information available. The only information we each have that no one else has is our own alignment. We have the same power and we have the same vote and the same broad game knowledge. THIS is the game, I don't think there are any other mechanics, no cancelling, no protection, no nothing. 13 players, everyone shoots randomly let's say 3 mafia for now and no lynch, just for argument's sake. 10/13 chance of hitting a townie 1-(11/12^12) chance of hitting the same target as at least one other person (65%)* So in theory 1/3 of us will die, 4 or 5 people. There will probably be 1 mafia in there. So if we do things randomly, it's just a simple dice game. I think then the smartest thing to do is to hunt for signs of mafia trying to communicate in thread and force voting to matter and focus on flip flop behaviour. *My maths there might be wrong, open to corrections. Hmm, this ignores people targeting the player, who is not going to target themselves. If I am alive tomorrow I will mull this over a bit more. Actually here's an idea. Anyone who hasn't said whether they would kill tonight: please either say 1. I will not kill 2. I might kill 3. I will definitely kill I will randomly kill from the list of people who haven't answered this question. If everyone answers, I will not kill anyone. HOWS THAT FOR GAME THEORY

Indeed, and you shouldn't take my list at face value, it could be complete fabrication. What you want to watch for is me mysteriously changing priorities, odd refusals to vote. If we pin people down and force them to explain themselves, inconsistencies are going to show through. That's why the first post is important to get out, but not necessarily as important in what it actually contains, at least at first.

My method means less statistical foolishness. Right now I suspect: Rummy Diageo Magnus Jimbob Do not suspect Peeps DuD Sheikah The rest, dunno Not planning to kill

We can be quite fast and loose with our voting, so it's a good opportunity to try and band together in thread and make certain information demands. We're trying to draw out behaviour more than juicy targets or powers.

Actually yeah I think the most effective thing we can do is each day force everyone to come up with a full ranked suspicion list, including justification. Failing to do so will be a town sanctioned lynch/kill. Squeeze out all illogical behaviour. What do people think? Take a vote on that? Majority wins? I'll make a list when I get home if people think it's a good idea.

@Jimbob from what you've read so far, who do you think is a terrorist?

What I'm most worried about right now is I'm starting to get a feel for who is town. If I am, so are the terrorists. If they are, we are in trouble.

I wont be killing anyone tonight - unless I spot something definitive that no one else does. Tomorrow morning is going to be very interesting I feel.

Reckon we'll get some bystander effect going on ?

This is why i'm thinking maybe there aren't that many terrorists. There's so little that's evening up the score for town that there might only be two of them. At the moment I am agreeing with Sheikah's conclusions on the matter of Lynch or Kill

Jimbob being alive in the night is another gun that is definitely not going to be pointed at himself.

Yeah I gotta say I didn't understand Rummy's post at all

If nothing changes, I'll be voting for Jimbob before the day ends.

Diageo is right I think; mafiascum run it that way generally and this game is very MS style.

So you are planning on killing tonight? On every night?

We have discussed the game and the mechanics for two pages and we have the same amount of information as you, so I don't accept that you have nothing to add as an excuse for adding nothing. What are you planning to do N1?

So, between now and tonight, anyone got any thoughts on the game? Another thing I thought of, that Diageo hinted at, is that townies aren't incentivised to act townish as much. Mafia want safe bets and wont be killing for powers, or necessarily even play style. At this stage its just important to not mess up and hit a teammate. So.....anyone planning on killing tonight?

@Jimbob say something today or I will kill you

One potentially annoying thing about the set up is that there wont be any undercurrent of vote co-ordination. That said, one thing to maybe look out for is people not voting for the scummiest players. But mafia have nothing to fear, there's no evidence for anything! Hrmm. One thing we will be able to figure out tomorrow is the minimum number of murderers (real value may be much higher due to duplicate targets). I'll be interested to know who, if any, will admit to murdering.

From the above I think DuD is town, but I think Jimbob should be given the benefit of 24 hours before being killed off for behaviour in previous games. The game started at 11pm yesterday. If he's early to bed and early to rise and can't access the forum until he gets home from work, it's bullshit to kill him off for inactivity until at least 9pm tonight.

Little did he know that I have been bit by bit introducing the terminology here

if a townie kills tonight they have probably a 3/12 (1/4) chance of hitting mafia, assuming a mislynch. If, from this, a 3 person mafia has a perfect night round, there will be 9 players left, with a 1/3 chance of hitting mafia. The probability of mafia hitting themselves also increases. Meanwhile the lynches get more substantial as people start to slip up. I think it's better for town to wait for every turn that they have enough players alive to kill the mafia in one turn. So if there are 3 mafia, town should feel safe until it's down to 6 members. At this point fi 3 mafia score a perfect night, the next day becomes critical.

The claiming is going to be very interesting. I'm not sure how two people claiming to have killed the same person will work. Someone can either claim: no murder, and be lying/telling the truth murder be lying/telling the truth. Lying here is either about the victim or the fact that they targeted. I like Smeagol's one word tip - motivations. It seems there are two types of people in the game (no neutrals I think) and their goals are interesting. If we're right about the lack of mafia forum, everyone is to some extent ACTUALLY snooping for mafia. Perhaps the mafia are trying to leave clues about themselves (a la expelement mafia). Mafia want the day to end QUICK (which is why I'm looking at the Jimbob voters) and townies shouldn't kill N1 if they know what's good for them. Everyone is looking for a halfway decent target, and everyone has motivation to lie about what they do at night. This is going to be interesting....for the three or four people who survive N1.