Michael Pachter Roleplay Thread

[Debug Mode]

Boys, girls, analysts and terrible analysts, the next generation is upon us next Friday. (What's a Wii U?)

 

It seems to be a thing now that we see Microsoft and Sony in their own little competition whilst Nintendo does its own thing (successfully or not). So, in homage to the greatest industry analyst to grace the internet, I suggest we do our best to become Michael Pachter's ourselves and try to predict how this console war is going to turn out, even though we're most likely going to be incredibly fucking wrong.

 

Some preliminary questions:

 

Is Microsoft really all that doomed?

How many units are you expecting to see sold of either console?

Who 'wins' the launch period, and will that victory continue through the post launch blues?

How will Nintendo factor into the Xbox One and PS4 launch hype?

 

To get the ball rolling, I'll give a couple of my honest views.

 

I'm not going to lie, and I don't think I'm pathetic in saying this, but I'm actually disappointed that it's looking like the Xbox One is in no where near the trouble people think it is. The core audience is too strong and too happy to fork out for services they never needed to for a whole generation now, it's now become a part of console gaming culture. It is now acceptable to have multiplayer as part of a charged service. And that annoys me.

 

As for how many units I imagine to be sold, I would honestly not be surprised if the Playstation 4 (my pick for the lead) sells more than the Wii U's current LTD, pending on stock issues. This is probably unlikely though, as we're only seeing a launch in two regions and not in the crucial Japanese market that is just sitting there waiting. Good choice though, no games that do well with the demographic.

 

I think there will be a point in the post-launch where Xbox One will outsell the PS4, but not for long. Titanfall does look like it could be one of those exclusives (Well, on the console front at least), that could win a few gamers and probably would get a niche audience going for the Xbox One in Japan (if they even bother with the market). I'm not too brushed up on the launch period game schedule for both consoles admittedly.

 

As for Nintendo, they basically have to hope for stock shortages for these two. There's no other way. Their lead holiday title will come out after the Xbox One and the same day as the Playstation 4 in Europe. Surely this is suicide, right? There is going to be utter havoc on the 29th for the Playstation 4, and it will be all over the news. It will be forgotten in a similar way that the 2.3 trillion dollars that had vanished from the books in the United States when announced on September 10th 2001. Stock shortages of both consoles and an almost immediate advertising blitz could flip the tables, but are there games the general public wants to play? Who knows.

[Rummy]

Is MS all that doomed?

Xbone isn't struggling at all - it's a relative comparison to the PS4 with bias and exposure via internet where we spend our time - there's plenty folks who don't and will be getting the Xbone and/or PS4 outside of what we see. It's indicative and the Xbone won't sell as well as the PS4, but it WILL sell well. It'll beat the Wii U's sales in the same time frame.

 

How many units of each?

As above, they'll both beat the Wii U. PS4 without a doubt, Xbone by January time-on-time comparison. PS4 might even hit shortages, not due to over-demand, but due to possible conservative supply by Sony. They're looking to avoid stale stock on shelves. Despite this, they're going to hit the supply/demand trend pretty close to what it is and people will be mildly impressed - the delays will be due to shipping stock etc.

 

Who 'wins' the launch period, and will that victory continue through the post launch blues?

Sony PS4. They win because they already have - coming back to my internet and exposure comment. That's influence right there, it affects them and the market. Their publicity is made even without their effort. They're going to top up on this from all angles, big blockbuster titles that the masses want but also the little titles for the regular core gamers(who are, ironically, not too different from wii u gamers). They might pull out some very interesting steam like digital distribution channels, with time limited deals that in themselves boost sales(as steam and indie bundle/PWYW deals do). MS might do more peaks and troughes, Sony'll do an average standard long game, and it'll pay off. MS might focus too much on living room than gaming, Sony'll do both but still keep it gaming - as a result they'll get the larger made market - Gamers. I should add here, I hate sony - or I did for a long while. I tried and did avoid them for so long, but they've tempted me in recent years, and I think they've really learnt and will take the next generation. I might even get suckered into it despite my own dislike.

 

How will Nintendo factor into the Xbox One and PS4 launch hype?

They won't. They've opted for a different market and they're so stubborn they won't try to switch and possibly succeed in niether. They're an alternative product for an alternative market. They've severely hampered their own chances. The console will be weak, it won't be a major success, its sales won't pick up enough, it won't get enough 3rd party and indie support, it'll essentially fail but at the same time it won't. Nintendo will give so little of a fuck about actually being a success that they'll manage to not lose too much on it. Nintendo will survive, but Wii U owners will feel really burned. The 3DS and handheld division will continue to thrive, and that'll keep the Wii U market torn but interested - because they know that Nintendo can, but don't. Nintendo are so mad that frankly, they're just not predictable. As a company financially they'll survive because they won't ever attempt to not or to take risks, as a game developer/maker/producer, I honestly don't know.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Rummy

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Is Microsoft really all that doomed?

 

Nope. While it may trail the cheaper PS4 there is no way they are doomed. Of course there will be 360 owners who switch to PS4 but the idea that MS are doomed is crazy talk.

 

How many units are you expecting to see sold of either console?

Who 'wins' the launch period, and will that victory continue through the post launch blues?

 

PS4 should win but it will be interesting to see how much they eat into the Xbox heartlands of the UK and USA. PS4 should lead initially but I do think titanfall will be a huge title for the Xbone. As long as Sony can produce enough consoles the PS4 will surpass the wii u Ltd sales within 1 year easily.

 

How will Nintendo factor into the Xbox One and PS4 launch hype?

It wont. The Wii U has no mindshare at all. It maybe a cheaper option but the 360/PS3 will be seen as better cheaper options.

All the talk in the media will be about Xbone v PS4 and the pro and cons of both consoles. They wont mention the Wii U as it isnt relevant not to mention trying to make an argument for the Wii U isnt easy.

 

The target market of families which nintendo seem to want to go for are no more likely to buy a wii u over the the PS4/Xbone. Whatever console the son wants then I expect they will go for that one. Services also matter and those two consoles have better services than what Nintendo offer. Not forgetting that a lot of people simply see another wii and thats a console they had 4 years ago.