Microsoft Acquires Activision Blizzard

[Sheikah]

It’s worth keeping in mind that literally every single publisher & platform holder has been publicly in favour of the deal… except for Sony.
Everyone in the industry benefits from this acquisition, with the sole exception of Sony.  Can’t say that I’d side with them on this one.

The customers don't benefit, and that's what this should be about. Giant industry mergers are always bad for the consumer.

[Dcubed]

13 minutes ago, Sheikah said:

The customers don't benefit, and that's what this should be about. Giant industry mergers are always bad for the consumer.

The 150 million + people who will newly gain access to COD on their platform of choice as a result of this deal will certainly disagree with you.

[Sheikah]

The 150 million + people who will newly gain access to COD on their platform of choice as a result of this deal will certainly disagree with you.

Millions will now lose access to new releases of lots of game series (look at what happened to Bethesda titles upon acquisition, before which all their titles were multiplatform). Not sure why you are only focusing on one game series when they own lots of others.

On the subject of COD though, it now has a 10 year agreement so in 10 years we will be in a worse place than we are now. The new platforms to gain COD for the next 10 years like Switch are at most nice to have, certainly not the place most existing COD gamers would choose to play first. It's a box ticking exercise so that they can argue they're putting it on more platforms, and it certainly helped them push the deal through; but all the while people are ignoring the fact that in 10 years this series can go exclusive. 10 years is will mean this will likely happen next generation!

Microsoft gamers will also no doubt see their Game Pass subscriptions go up, while ABK releases take the place of other titles that might have made it to Game Pass. So it's not like it's even a win for Microsoft gamers - they could play ABK games before, after all.

[Ashley]

 

 

[Jimbob]

Strange how the deal between Microsoft and Sony doesn't specify a time compared to other deals agreed.

Based on Monday, it would seem that there are some legal things left to tidy up only between CMA and Microsoft.  CMA sort of has had enough of the mess they created.

[Dcubed]

1 hour ago, Jimbob said:

Strange how the deal between Microsoft and Sony doesn't specify a time compared to other deals agreed.

Based on Monday, it would seem that there are some legal things left to tidy up only between CMA and Microsoft.  CMA sort of has had enough of the mess they created.

I imagine that Sony got a worse deal than Nintendo, given their position of weakness in negotiations here.

CMA have really landed face first over this whole affair.  That's what happens when you base your legal case on emotions and ideology over facts and figures though.

[Happenstance]

1 hour ago, Jimbob said:

Strange how the deal between Microsoft and Sony doesn't specify a time compared to other deals agreed.

Based on Monday, it would seem that there are some legal things left to tidy up only between CMA and Microsoft.  CMA sort of has had enough of the mess they created.

I think it came out afterwards that it was just the same 10 year deal they'd been talking about from the beginning

[Sheikah]

I imagine that Sony got a worse deal than Nintendo, given their position of weakness in negotiations here.
CMA have really landed face first over this whole affair.  That's what happens when you base your legal case on emotions and ideology over facts and figures though.

The CMA were the only ones who did their job. Anyone who wants or cheers on huge industry mergers like this is sick, quite frankly.

[Choze]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u-turn-over-microsoft-raises-serious-questions-about-our-regulators-vb67d0sw0

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However credible the threats, they worked. The chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned that it is “important all our regulators understand their wider responsibilities for economic growth”. Despite claiming that he would not want to undermine the CMA’s independence, that is exactly what he did. And, despite the competition watchdog’s denials, its subsequent offer of talks with Microsoft over a possible compromise looked like a politically-driven reverse ferret.

Not a good look for the Uk and CMA. 

The EU also need to fix their reputation for being wining and dining deal makers for monopolists. See the Fiona Scott mess. 

[Ashley]

Jeremy Hunt in "not a good look" shocker. 

[Choze]

1

On 15/07/2023 at 7:25 AM, Dcubed said:

The 150 million + people who will newly gain access to COD on their platform of choice as a result of this deal will certainly disagree with you.

Its a misleading number. The main COD audience is on PS/XBox consoles for now unless Nintendo create a competitor. Its a similar terrible argument people use for mobile(iOS /Android) and Windows. Remember Mobile and Windows are shrinking. The main gaming growth is in in DLC/micro-transactions.

So technically, less people will be spending/playing on COD if you remove PS from the equation. The most valuable part of the COD business is PS.

Its interesting because Hollywood and US TV has run into the same problems. Streaming hasn't worked out at all for them. For Xbox they tanked game sales because of GamePass with nothing to show for it so far. The evidence given to all 3 main agencies (FTC, CMA, EU) is quite damning.

Remember that we are discussing entertainment/content based industries. This is where the US Judge's arguments fell apart quickly (not to mention moved goalposts from the Within/Meta merger). The CMA and EU were unable to really do much on this side despite their good reports and focused on Cloud like a non entertainment business. This is a glaring limitation for both of those agencies and France are correct to highlight that it makes DG comp useless.

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by Choze
some editing and cleanup.

[Choze]

On 15/07/2023 at 6:44 AM, Dcubed said:

It’s worth keeping in mind that literally every single publisher & platform holder has been publicly in favour of the deal… except for Sony.

Everyone in the industry benefits from this acquisition, with the sole exception of Sony.  Can’t say that I’d side with them on this one.

I missed this, a majority of companies were against the deal in the CMA documents. Though not named and the amount varied per issue. 

It has an obvious negative effect on the content side of the industry. e.g. Workers get paid less, higher risk and a smaller 3rd party market now as a huge chunk of that value goes to MS as a 1st party. Much of that 3rd party and consumer value comes from the PS business. Whose success is based on attracting the most 3rd parties and consumer spending.

 

I'll post some recommended reading etc. at some point.

Big tech are on a path of automatic growth. Cause massive harm to fulfil their own inevitable growth. Most of their valuations increased massively in the last 10 years of stagnation on innovation and competition. No need to innovate when you can just buy. No need to increase wages or handle employment when you hold all the cards and standards. You don't need great employees any-more. That is a bigger issue than automation itself. Not to mention patents, startups, decreasing share of wealth for everyone else etc. The gaming industry is going to get more depressing.

Edited July 26, 2023 by Choze

[Choze]

A good reminder of how all in one subscriptions are working out.

https://prospect.org/culture/2023-07-28-barbenheimer-drastic-choices-hollywood-executives/

 

 

[Choze]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/tech/google-antitrust-lawsuit/

Been following this. Another wild Judge decision. Alongside weird mistakes and errors.

Much like the MS/Activsion case the Judge didn't think about reusing himself despite relevant conflicts of interest.

[Choze]

So small summary of developments:

• The US FTC is still opposed but we will see what happens. As things stand MS can close post UK CMA.
• EU is ok with recent developments and no changes on their end.

 

• Until actual details are posted its hard to tell what the new MS submission to the CMA actually entails. According to MS: Ubisoft will hold the online streaming rights for key Activision games apparently. This would work for a number of years before being transferred back to MS. This is a forward thinking move on MS's part as they are looking at more large buyouts. The CMA did choose to reject on cloud gaming and technology after all.

 

• The Google vs USA antitrust has begun and is worth following. Odds are good for Google given the judge has pretty much let Google destroy evidence freely and made the case less accessible for the public as per Google's request. But pressure piles on for change. Change is inevitable soon enough, especially given the harms occurring. Technology can never be forever locked down as per history e.g. Rail, Telecoms etc.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Choze

[Julius]

Huge leaks coming out of this case with certain items astonishingly left unredacted.

• Phil Spencer in 2020: getting Nintendo would be a career moment for me. 

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• Xbox mid-gen hardware refresh (digital Series X @ $499, haptics and quieter buttons controller @ $69.99)

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• Phil Spencer: Game Pass at 25 million subscribers, no growth since Activision Blizzard acquisition announcement (note: this is from late 2022):

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• Bethesda release schedule leak (from 2019?):

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• next-gen version of Red Dead Redemption II:

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• early plans for next-gen Xbox (2028, cloud-hybrid games, potential switch to ARM). 

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• Ninja Theory's Project Ara is based on an existing IP. 

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Holy. Hot. Damn. These are some spicy ass leaks! 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Julius

[drahkon]

Yeah, none of their plans are doing anything for me
And the industry can only hope that Microsoft will never decide to just say "fuck it" and use their ridiculous spending power to buy pretty much everything...

Phil Spencer saying buying Nintendo would be "a career moment"...it's actually a pretty sad thought...capitalism in full swing. And while they will (probably) never buy Nintendo, he really wishes to go for a monopoly...disgusting.

Edited September 19, 2023 by drahkon

[Dcubed]

Potential switch to ARM for the next gen Xbox? Ohoho!

Xbox does what Nintendoes!

Speaking of which... looks like Xbox controllers are finally getting motion controls! Only took 'em 3 generations to catch up!

Bethesda's lineup looks disappointingly dull though.  Who asked for another Ghostwire Tokyo!? And while it's nice to see more Nu Doom, I would rather have seen ID do something a bit different like a new Quake or something.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Dcubed

[Julius]

A further leak has also seemingly confirmed the existence of a planned Xbox handheld...

...which will not be getting funding. 

1 hour ago, drahkon said:

Yeah, none of their plans are doing anything for me
And the industry can only hope that Microsoft will never decide to just say "fuck it" and use their ridiculous spending power to buy pretty much everything...

Phil Spencer saying buying Nintendo would be "a career moment"...it's actually a pretty sad thought...capitalism in full swing. And while they will (probably) never buy Nintendo, he really wishes to go for a monopoly...disgusting.

Yeah, totally agree – and I do wonder if it will have any impact at all on the Activision-Blizzard purchase, because seeing it stated like this (we are also planning on purchasing X developers and one of our only two rivals in the dedicated console space) is finally the phrasing that I think could put things in a new light in this case: Xbox do want a monopoly. It's something I would certainly be considering and taking a harsh look at, that's for sure. 

This also feels like the most casually unhinged thing I've ever heard/read Phil Spencer say. I can see what he's trying to get at - what greater jewel in the video game acquisition crown could there be than Nintendo? - but to suggest that it would be a career moment to have your bosses buy them? It sounds like a pretty sad career if the highlights are acquisitions. 

Also, for context, this was all said during perhaps the biggest mid-gen surge to date (2020, so the year COVID has massive tangible effects, and Animal Crossing and the Switch soared to new horizons), so it's even funnier reading him go on about Nintendo taking too long to adapt and bring their games to other consoles 

27 minutes ago, Dcubed said:

Bethesda's lineup looks disappointingly dull though.  Who asked for another Ghostwire Tokyo!? And while it's nice to see more Nu Doom, I would rather have seen ID do something a bit different like a new Quake or something.

Yeah, seems like an old doc based on it starting with FY20 (so probably 2019/early 2020?) and while COVID is a factor in potential delays, etc., boy oh boy are they super behind if all of this was the plan. Even before COVID, to slate Elder Scrolls VI for FY24 seems bold, genuinely to the point of outright stupidity. 

I do find it interesting that they at least acknowledge the weakness of the Zenimax purchase in it being more North American/European focused and not exactly diversifying their portfolio, which is what a lot of us have been saying since the acquisition was first announced. And I agree with you – the slide doesn't exactly invoke any confidence in them doing much interesting besides, well, remaining Bethesda, for both better and worse. 

[Dcubed]

Xbox wanting to buy Nintendo isn't a revelation in the slightest, hell; they tried to buy them multiple times before, as far back as 2000.  This is fully public info, even appearing in the Xbox 20th anniversary documentary and museum website!

I bet Jim Ryan would also love to buy Nintendo... it's never gonna happen though

[Dcubed]

Xbox hardware roadmap from 2022 - 2029

There it is.  So the decision about ARM vs x86 should already have happened by now.  OHOHOHO!

Next console should be launching in November 2028 in this case.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Dcubed

[Ashley]

Yeah I've seen some people say Microsoft considering buying Nintendo is just a standard part of market research. Obviously they want to buy companies so they'd look into all the big ones and Nintendo would be within that, but I doubt they thought it was really going to happen.

[Choze]

Companies like MS only have one actual strategy and that is of acquisition. They have no need to care about being effective. No need to compete, pay well, hire, innovate, focus on quality etc. This has terrible consequences on society as they unfairly hoard success which is why there is now a fightback much like the past.

9 hours ago, Ashley said:

Yeah I've seen some people say Microsoft considering buying Nintendo is just a standard part of market research. Obviously they want to buy companies so they'd look into all the big ones and Nintendo would be within that, but I doubt they thought it was really going to happen.

The fact they were being proactive about an under the radar method shows you its always on their mind. Most companies will never afford Nintendo. Only a few can. Out of those only MS has an interest in gaming. Even if they are uncreative... Its clear a lot of people don't realise how easy it is for MS right now.

Look at the business synergy/lock ins they are going for:

https://x.com/LeeHepner/status/1704188847989608456?s=20

 

Google is doing even more on keeping things out of the public eye with their case. But there is plenty of hope as history shows as with Bell / AT&T:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawyer-who-helped-break-up-att-says-doj-has-50-plus-odds-of-winning-google-trial-154710156.html

Edited September 20, 2023 by Choze

[Choze]

Seems like there are a load of bots in comments sections/ forums etc with this CMA announcement. They seemed to have missed the day the leaks came out though.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Choze

[Choze]

https://www.ft.com/content/c4ec903e-bc0c-46e0-958e-189f60dff24e

Another MS buying Nintendo article.

Assuming the UK CMA will finalise their review soonish.

US FTC will still be against the merger though cant block it for now.

Oh and MS owe $29 billion in taxes...

https://www.ft.com/content/cd0596b3-a81c-4352-9e80-b7971d5e5495

Edited October 12, 2023 by Choze