Fierce_LiNk

Brexit - UK negotiates a deal

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8 hours ago, Eenuh said:

I went for a 5 year remortgage instead of a 2 year one only a few months ago, for exactly the same reasons. I do not trust the current climate and I expect things to get worse because of Brexit. The housing market has apparently been stagnating and slightly dropping recently because of all the insecurities surrounding Brexit. So at least my payments will be secure for the next few years...

I am also not sure what is going to happen with travel once we leave the EU on the 29th... I have booked a trip to Belgium in March, coming back to the UK on the 30th. I'm not sure if they will just let me back in or if I will need a visum or proof that I live in the UK as an EU national. :confused:

I have been in the same situation, I've also moved my pension fund to a worldwide fund as I am not expecting the UK to do well.  

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So, uh, the last week has certainly been interesting. May's deal has been absolutely obliterated, then came the No Confidence vote and now we've got a plan B which looks an awful lot like the plan A but with the A tippexed over. 

We seem to be getting closer to an Article 50 extension, but rather because there still doesn't seem to be a definite plan. Part of me wonders whether we will still be in the same situation 2 years from now. 

 

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I reckon an extension to Article 50 & a General Election is incoming.

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If there is a general election, would be really interesting if party lines went out the window, and everyone just voted single issue about Brexit.

Otherwise, what's the point of a GE right now. If the Tories get in, nothing changes. If Labour get in, nothing really changes either.

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5 hours ago, Kav said:

I reckon an extension to Article 50 & a General Election is incoming.

I can see an extension to Article 50 coming, but man...another General Election? Don't think it'll happen, but I can just imagine the collective sigh that the UK will do if it does.

Brexit is the one issue that is dominating everything in the UK, at the moment. It's on the news daily, it seems to change quicker than the weather and we don't seem to be any closer to a conclusion. Do we really need to throw a General Election into the mix? The Labour Party's obsession with it at the moment is exhausting. I admire the Greens and Lib Dems more for choosing a side with the need for a Final Say vote, rather than Labour sitting on that fence and promising that things will be different if they were in charge.

Let's entertain the notion of a possible General Election. If Labour do get in...will we be effectively restarting the process from the beginning? 2 and a half more years of going after a new deal, plus the time needed to host a General Election. It could be close to a decade after the referendum before we have any sort of path or idea of where the UK is going, if we have a General Election. 

We're all assuming that the EU is going to grant the extension. What if they just want a quick resolution?

 

 

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I think all 27 states need to ok an extension, Slovakia or something like that have stated they won't get on board with it because they don't see it having any value.

Basically, with parliament being so divided, and May having called that GE, there was no chance of Brexit being a success. Had May been more astute, and less concerned about trying to create a "legacy" for herself, maybe she could have haggled a slightly better deal. The second she lost her GE the UK lost any chance of positivity from Brexit. Actually I would argue actually the moment she became PM, she hasn't exactly got a shining history for doing the right thing by the citizens of the UK!

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19 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

I can see an extension to Article 50 coming, but man...another General Election? Don't think it'll happen, but I can just imagine the collective sigh that the UK will do if it does.

Brexit is the one issue that is dominating everything in the UK, at the moment. It's on the news daily, it seems to change quicker than the weather and we don't seem to be any closer to a conclusion. Do we really need to throw a General Election into the mix? The Labour Party's obsession with it at the moment is exhausting. I admire the Greens and Lib Dems more for choosing a side with the need for a Final Say vote, rather than Labour sitting on that fence and promising that things will be different if they were in charge.

Let's entertain the notion of a possible General Election. If Labour do get in...will we be effectively restarting the process from the beginning? 2 and a half more years of going after a new deal, plus the time needed to host a General Election. It could be close to a decade after the referendum before we have any sort of path or idea of where the UK is going, if we have a General Election. 

We're all assuming that the EU is going to grant the extension. What if they just want a quick resolution?

 

I reckon an Election will be incoming as I think Yvette Cooper’s amendment will pass next week, which seeks to extent Article 50 and rule out a No Deal Brexit.

There’s a big suggestion that this will lead May to trigger another Election (because she doesn’t want Parliament to take over the process) offering up a vote on her Deal or No Deal in another manifesto... then if she’s voted back in, she can ignore the Parliament standoff we currently have and be shown to have “saved” Brexit.

The Tories really don’t want to risk avoiding Brexit as it’ll split the Party in two - that’s the reason they called the Referendum in the first place don’t forget!

If it doesn’t pass and May doesn’t move any further on her Deal then it’ll look like we’re heading for a No deal, at this point another vote of No Confidence will likely be called... would the Lib Dem’s & Tory Remainers really risk a No Deal Brexit or would they finally put Country before Party and put it to an Election..?

If that were to fail, then Labour would support a 2nd Referendum.

 

Both the Tories and Labour have to be very careful in the steps they’re taking, otherwise they’d face destruction... most Labour constituencies voted Leave and most the swing constituencies they need to win also voted Leave.

Too early a call for a second referendum will ruin they’re chances in any future elections.

Edited by Kav

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On ‎23‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 1:37 PM, Kav said:

 

I reckon an Election will be incoming as I think Yvette Cooper’s amendment will pass next week, which seeks to extent Article 50 and rule out a No Deal Brexit.

There’s a big suggestion that this will lead May to trigger another Election (because she doesn’t want Parliament to take over the process) offering up a vote on her Deal or No Deal in another manifesto... then if she’s voted back in, she can ignore the Parliament standoff we currently have and be shown to have “saved” Brexit.

The Tories really don’t want to risk avoiding Brexit as it’ll split the Party in two - that’s the reason they called the Referendum in the first place don’t forget!

If it doesn’t pass and May doesn’t move any further on her Deal then it’ll look like we’re heading for a No deal, at this point another vote of No Confidence will likely be called... would the Lib Dem’s & Tory Remainers really risk a No Deal Brexit or would they finally put Country before Party and put it to an Election..?

If that were to fail, then Labour would support a 2nd Referendum.

 

Both the Tories and Labour have to be very careful in the steps they’re taking, otherwise they’d face destruction... most Labour constituencies voted Leave and most the swing constituencies they need to win also voted Leave.

Too early a call for a second referendum will ruin they’re chances in any future elections.

The only way to rule out a No Deal Brexit is to either:

1. Cancel Brexit/Remain in the EU
2. Pass through May's current deal (an amended version)
3. Pass through another deal.

The default option is that the UK will leave on a No Deal Brexit. If nothing changes between now and the leave date (no extensions, no deals), then the UK will leave on No Deal. You can't rule out a No Deal. It's a bit like ruling out failing on a test. You just can't. Even if we extend the deadline, it's still a deadline that has to be met at x date in the future. The EU also need to agree to it. Are they really going to just extend because, quite frankly, the UK has no idea what it is doing? You only have to look at the Irish border situation to see how ridiculous a situation we are in. To satisfy not having a No Deal brexit, one of those three options is still the only outcome. I am really getting the feeling at the moment that the UK is praying for an extension, but I have no faith in the Government whatsoever to still come up with a viable solution to all of this (which leaves us better off or in a better position than staying in the EU). 

This is all still based on "ifs" and "buts". "If this happens, then Labour will do this", or "if this doesn't happen, Labour will then do this". Sorry, we're just really past that point now. 

Somewhat unrelated, but I hope that once Brexit is out of the way (lol), we can look again at another system, such as Proportional Representation. I hope that this will then lead to a greater choice of parties, as I am tired of the near-two-party system that we currently run in the UK. 

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The thing is @Fierce_LiNk we’re not past the point of ifs & buts yet... that May’s Deal was rejected so forcefully has kept us in this position.

The EU want a closer Deal, they’ve said so themselves, they’d likely agree to extend Article 50 should Parliament take control and put forward proposals on a new deal:

 

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On 1/24/2019 at 11:43 PM, Fierce_LiNk said:

Somewhat unrelated, but I hope that once Brexit is out of the way (lol), we can look again at another system, such as Proportional Representation. I hope that this will then lead to a greater choice of parties, as I am tired of the near-two-party system that we currently run in the UK. 

not really Brexit, but tbh the vote on May's deal shows what COULD happen with PR. I do think that maybe the way the prime minister is selected should be changed, and even the MP's themselves should have to show some "attachment" to the constituency they are representing. And also some way of opening up politics more to independents.

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On ‎25‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 8:48 AM, Kav said:

The thing is @Fierce_LiNk we’re not past the point of ifs & buts yet... that May’s Deal was rejected so forcefully has kept us in this position.

The EU want a closer Deal, they’ve said so themselves, they’d likely agree to extend Article 50 should Parliament take control and put forward proposals on a new deal:

 

The EU is saying nothing different to what it, as a collective, has been saying all along. Their position has remained the same throughout and it has been consistent, especially with regards to May's red lines. It is our own Government that are the problem with the constant flip-flopping, but making no real progress. We need some form of resolution, or at least some clear direction of where things are going. The problem is that May is being "stubborn" with her red lines and hasn't moved an inch, even after it has been proven that there is no appetite at all for her deal. If she moves her red lines now, she will look weak, although I don't think it will matter too much to her if she plans to move on as PM after Brexit, which seems likely anyway. It's ludicrous that such important matters are being left to the last minute and it's an indictment on how poor UK politics is at the moment that we find ourselves even talking about the notion of extending the deadline.

The danger of extending the deadline (with the way things currently are) is that it will just prolong the pain, particularly with the average voter who just wants (to a certain extent) politics to move on, particular as there are other social issues which just aren't being tackled whilst this uncertainty is in the background. There's a danger of further disillusionment with the citizens of the UK, especially if this were to effectively restart. How much more of this can the public actually stomach? There's only so many times we can go over the same arguments about "single market access", or "freedom of movement", or "the Irish border" and soon a decision will just have to be made, and the consequences lived with. 

We'll see what happens. A large portion of the country are going to be fucked off either way. The 48% (or however many it is now) who voted remain, if the UK leaves on No Deal. The 52% (or however many it is now), if we cancel the whole thing. God knows how many if we hold a Second Referendum, or an Extension, or a General Election, possibly a large proportion from both sides. I don't see the country uniting after Brexit and still personally think that we'll see the social and economical effects of whatever happens for a long time. 

11 hours ago, Pestneb said:

not really Brexit, but tbh the vote on May's deal shows what COULD happen with PR. I do think that maybe the way the prime minister is selected should be changed, and even the MP's themselves should have to show some "attachment" to the constituency they are representing. And also some way of opening up politics more to independents.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying with regards to the changes. What I really don't like it just how politics has become a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour. We just need a more wider selection of parties and a better way of the votes of the people being represented. I also think it will lead to a greater many people actually voting for the parties and issues that they truly want, instead of this bullshit "tactical voting" nonsense that took place in the last General Election. 

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Well the vote on May’ Plan B is the 29th so it won’t be long until the next steps in Brexit come about.

I reckon we’ll move towards Parliament taking control or an Election, following a No Confidence vote, to prevent No Deal.

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19 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

We'll see what happens. A large portion of the country are going to be fucked off either way. The 48% (or however many it is now) who voted remain, if the UK leaves on No Deal. The 52% (or however many it is now), if we cancel the whole thing. God knows how many if we hold a Second Referendum, or an Extension, or a General Election, possibly a large proportion from both sides. I don't see the country uniting after Brexit and still personally think that we'll see the social and economical effects of whatever happens for a long time. 

I agree with a lot of what you are saying with regards to the changes. What I really don't like it just how politics has become a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour. We just need a more wider selection of parties and a better way of the votes of the people being represented. I also think it will lead to a greater many people actually voting for the parties and issues that they truly want, instead of this bullshit "tactical voting" nonsense that took place in the last General Election. 

Firstly, definitely, May has done terribly, part of me wonders if she did so on purpose (she was always a remainer, albeit a partly weak and feeble one, though those two words seem to fit in which ever position she has filled)

Secondly, I agree on the divisions, but 100% of the nation (or maybe only 90%?) will be displeased if May's plan gets through. I actually think  both a no deal/cancellation scenario is the least harmful route for the country. If Brexit goes through on Mays plan  the referendum question becomes retrospectively "Should the UK weaken it's position on the world stage, and surrender more control to the EU?" as we'll no longer have ANY say on the rules we'll be having to abide by. At least no deal, while I have little doubt will weaken the uk in some ways, has potential to come out with certain benefits. I really dislike the protectionist policies of the EU, and for me not being held to those policies actually is one of the biggest pro's for brexit. Of course that does rely on a competent government who aren't xenophobic, so the sooner May is out the better!

Personally my life would be a lot easier to plan, in 3 years or so my wife can get EU citizenship and I can return to the UK, without having to worry about May's lovely "sorry, we don't like foreigners" immigration policy that is effectively putting me in exile right now! so I definitely prefer the idea of the cancellation, though I don't particularly see that as too likely right now. sadly if I were to put odds on it, I'd say 49% May's plan, 44% No deal, 7% Cancellation.

On the two horse front, I don't think that is the issue, so long as it's two good horses. Right now in UK politics I don't think any of the horses are much good, and that shouldn't change along with a change in voting system. But definitely it feels like something should move. Perhaps post Brexit decisions have happened.

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I doubt May did what she did on purpose. She's been shit her entire career. 

Put in my application for emigrating to Canada today. Fingers crossed.

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I'd rather just leave than unite, to be honest. 

 

(But, yes, she's awful)

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9 hours ago, Kav said:

Well the vote on May’ Plan B is the 29th so it won’t be long until the next steps in Brexit come about.

I reckon we’ll move towards Parliament taking control or an Election, following a No Confidence vote, to prevent No Deal.

I keep hearing rumours that she is prepared to "drop" the Irish backstop offer, but...what the hell is going to happen to Ireland then?! The Government do not seem to understand that the only way to prevent a border is to be in some sort of customs union. They've had years to make a decision and seem unable to want to commit to one.

We'll see what happens on Tuesday. Plan B is just Plan A remixed, so don't see it getting through, although maybe the defeat won't be so grand this time.

4 hours ago, Pestneb said:

Firstly, definitely, May has done terribly, part of me wonders if she did so on purpose (she was always a remainer, albeit a partly weak and feeble one, though those two words seem to fit in which ever position she has filled)

Secondly, I agree on the divisions, but 100% of the nation (or maybe only 90%?) will be displeased if May's plan gets through. I actually think  both a no deal/cancellation scenario is the least harmful route for the country. If Brexit goes through on Mays plan  the referendum question becomes retrospectively "Should the UK weaken it's position on the world stage, and surrender more control to the EU?" as we'll no longer have ANY say on the rules we'll be having to abide by. At least no deal, while I have little doubt will weaken the uk in some ways, has potential to come out with certain benefits. I really dislike the protectionist policies of the EU, and for me not being held to those policies actually is one of the biggest pro's for brexit. Of course that does rely on a competent government who aren't xenophobic, so the sooner May is out the better!

Personally my life would be a lot easier to plan, in 3 years or so my wife can get EU citizenship and I can return to the UK, without having to worry about May's lovely "sorry, we don't like foreigners" immigration policy that is effectively putting me in exile right now! so I definitely prefer the idea of the cancellation, though I don't particularly see that as too likely right now. sadly if I were to put odds on it, I'd say 49% May's plan, 44% No deal, 7% Cancellation.

On the two horse front, I don't think that is the issue, so long as it's two good horses. Right now in UK politics I don't think any of the horses are much good, and that shouldn't change along with a change in voting system. But definitely it feels like something should move. Perhaps post Brexit decisions have happened.

I don't think May has played some kind of masterstroke. She's genuinely incompetent at what she does and is either really ill-informed or just flat-out ignorant with what she knows or doesn't know. I've looked up her previous voting record and, although her views have softened in recent years, it does not make for pleasant reading.

I would be pleased if the UK decides to scrap Brexit, but I do recognise that it will come with its own can of worms. In another set of circumstances, No Deal would be easier to stomach if there was some actual blueprint for the future about how the UK would go about conducting business, etc, but I'm just not seeing enough there to make that prospect seem tangible. I think what the UK is aiming to do (or what it thinks it is aiming to do) is, in fact, extraordinarily difficult and these deals often takes years to put together. With the people that we have in charge of the negotiations (at least as far as Brexit is concerned), the thought of No Deal seems somewhat terrifying, imo!

What is your current situation like? @Eenuh is waiting to do the "Settled Status" thing and doesn't seem impressed with it all, so far! :heh:

Our two horses are made of cheese with the legs placed on the inside of the horse.

2 hours ago, somme said:

I doubt May did what she did on purpose. She's been shit her entire career. 

Put in my application for emigrating to Canada today. Fingers crossed.

Is your move to Canada based on Brexit or other external factors?

2 hours ago, Pestneb said:

Perhaps one thing can unite the UK - a strong dislike of May? :D

I don't think she's very much liked, although I find it a little odd how Corbyn seems to be vehemently hated in comparison. 

Personally, I really dislike May and do think she'll go down as a poor Prime Minister. I worry how society will view the prospect of another female Prime Minister after May and...that other one who will not be named. *hisses*

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Just now, Fierce_LiNk said:

Is your move to Canada based on Brexit or other external factors?

 

It's hard to say for sure as I have always wanted to migrate back out of the UK (lived in Australia for a while back in the 00s) but Brexit is certainly what drove me to actually start the process. I see a long recession and bitterly divided future for the UK. I'd rather not suffer that if I don't have to.

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This whole shambles started because David Cameron wanted to avoid losing an election to Labour due to UKIP taking votes away from the Tories.

The referendum vote comes through not overwhelmingly, but a win none the less for leave (52-48 in my opinion is not a large enough margin to legislate for a hard brexit, but anyway)

 

Then he pissed off because he doesn't care and we were left with May in charge - she triggered article 50 without knowing exactly what sort of deal she wanted (or the level of deal that would get through parliament) and put in charge of negotiations the absolute idiot that is David Davis.

 

Fast forward 2 years and we appear to be no further forward since the idiot Brexiters seemed to think Ireland would cave to the UK's demands without seeming to realise that they had the backing of the other EU countries now and weren't just on their own.

 

At least I take comfort in the fact that enough MPs seem to understand that No Deal would be catastrophic so that seems to at least be off the table.

With the red lines that the UK government want the only possible deal the UK can get is May's deal (which would undoubtedly lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom)

 

I honestly have no idea what happens next, but it's also clear that there's no consensus in parliament for any end result, so we're stuck in a state of political limbo and just have to hope for the best.

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1 hour ago, gmac said:

Then he pissed off because he doesn't care and we were left with May in charge

I do think David Cameron was the person who displayed the most shameful behaviour throughout the whole thing. He held the referendum for the sake of political points, failed in campaigning for "Remain" (a position that really shouldn't require much effort to make appealing), and then dodged every responsibility when the referendum didn't produce the result he wanted.

A combination of cowardice, irresponsibility and callousness that's almost unreal.

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His face is also slightly too small for his head. Like Thomas the Tank Engine.

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4 hours ago, Glen-i said:

David Cameron has, and always will be, a twat.

David Cameron has a twat?

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On the Irish backstop front... Already even within the EU there are controls and checks etc. So Why not just have a bilateral agreement between North and republic.. citizens are allowed to buy things from either side of the border for personal use. Businesses however need to provide the appropriate documentation to either prove that materials/services have had the appropriate duties applied or are sourced from the correct side of the border? simply have a sea crossing tariff whereby any goods travelling by air/sea/under sea tunnel have to have the EU/UK tariff/rules/regulations applied (so travelling North-republic would incur the same tariffs as England-France for example).

 

I know the agreements are complicated, but it seems sensible to me, it's not treating N.Ireland differently to any of the other parts of the UK... if Scotland got independence for example, the same rules could apply between the UK and Wales trading with Scotland. It prevents the UK using the land border as a way of getting access to the EU market, it would only allow Northern Ireland to access the Republic and vice versa.

 

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