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So what will May do?

1. Go for a No Deal & risk a vote of No Confidence against her?

2. Extend Article 50 & drop her “red lines” to renegotiate a new Deal with the EU?

3. Call a “People’s Vote” and risk voters at the next Election?

4. Call a General Election to try for a fresh mandate from the public?

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57 minutes ago, Kav said:

So what will May do?

1. Go for a No Deal & risk a vote of No Confidence against her?

2. Extend Article 50 & drop her “red lines” to renegotiate a new Deal with the EU?

3. Call a “People’s Vote” and risk voters at the next Election?

4. Call a General Election to try for a fresh mandate from the public?

I think it'll be 2, she's too desperate to keep the Tories in power for as long as possible.

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I think she'll attempt to extend and will use her deal as the "starting point". The EU will vote to extend and I think it may even be a hefty extension, because they won't want to be seen as "the bad guys" who are forcing the UK to hurry up and decide. May will eventually move on her red lines and there will be some form of compromise. Ultimately, she will cling on to this deal for as long as possible until her own party kick her out, which I can't see them doing anytime soon.

The chances of a final vote are looking slimmer and slimmer, in my view.

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Posted (edited)

'If' there is an extension, I wonder how much this will cost? If the extension carried on for a few months, people in the UK would according to the European Commission president have to vote in upcoming EU elections.

Edited by sumo73

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Posted (edited)

I'm hoping the EU gives us a very long extension.  As I say, I think the potency of Brexit is weakening by the day, and I think very few will still want it in a couple of years' time.  I'd also like to vote in the European Elections.  We may very well all vote Lib Dem, which would certainly send a message about the country's mood (then again, we might all vote UKIP!)

 

There's always the possibility of the EU refusing us any extension at all.  In this case, I don't think there's any chance of leaving with no deal.  It's more likely Theresa May would revoke Article 50, or be forced to make way for someone who will.  My biggest concern though is still Theresa May somehow managing to force her Withdrawal Agreement through.

 

It seems to me there is no specific version of Brexit that is more popular than Remain, and so it's very wrong to force it through.  The people should get a chance to vote again: a specific version of Leave vs. Remain.  Unless there's some sort of national security issue we're not being told about, it just seems like madness to go ahead with something we probably don't want.

Edited by Grazza

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I like the creator voted leave and said something like "I posted it when it looked likely we wouldn't leave and now it's being hijacked!" Which I believe happened with the second vote one that was started by a leave voter just before the referendum happened. 

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On 21/03/2019 at 11:35 AM, somme said:

I signed it yesterday morning and it was at 22K. Now it's nearly 800K. Theresa's speech certainly had an impact, haha!

I signed somewhere around the 200k mark, I think. Amazing that there are over 4 million signatures now. The march today also has a huuuuuge turnout. What are we thinking about the chances of a second referendum, after all?

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35 minutes ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

I signed somewhere around the 200k mark, I think. Amazing that there are over 4 million signatures now. The march today also has a huuuuuge turnout. What are we thinking about the chances of a second referendum, after all?

I don’t think the petition or march will have had any effect on any decision to have a 2nd Ref... moreso that Bercow’s block of MV3 and also May’s speech the other night turning even more MPs away from her will have more of a desired effect.

I think the best chance of one is if May suggests she will put her Deal to the people if they vote it through in the Commons.

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6 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

I signed somewhere around the 200k mark, I think. Amazing that there are over 4 million signatures now. The march today also has a huuuuuge turnout. What are we thinking about the chances of a second referendum, after all?

 

Given the strength of feeling today, I don't think the option to Remain can be ignored.  I'd say John Bercow's actions guided us towards a softer Brexit than the Withdrawal Agreement on its own, but today made Remain itself more likely. 

 

Apparently Parliament is going to have indicative votes on:

 

  • Leaving with no deal
  • Withdrawal Agreement
  • WA + Customs Union
  • WA + Customs Union + Single Market (Norway Plus)
  • Canada-style deal (Donald Tusk calls it Canada Plus Plus Plus!)
  • 2nd referendum
  • Revoking Article 50

 

Let's rule out No Deal, the current Withdrawal Agreement and the Prime Minister simply revoking Article 50 without a referendum (or at least, I should hope the first two are ruled out).  I think Parliament must now decide on the type of Brexit they would put through if they believed the public still wanted to leave.  Presumably it would be the Customs Unions plan, Norway Plus or a Canada-style deal (I'm not too sure what that is - I haven't been keen in the past because it's harder than some of the other options, but I liked what Donald Tusk was saying about the "Plus Plus Plus" version).

 

Then that one version of Leave should be put against Remain in a referendum.  In the past I might have said they should put that through without asking the public again, but as I say, almost three years on and given the march, given the petition, I don't think anything else would be right or fair.  Maybe we still want to leave - in which case we should - but I really think everyone should have another say.

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Rather than a referendum, an indicative vote might be a better choice. Leave No deal on there so people can have their say. Sure no one option would have a majority (most likely) but it would show clearly if people want the customs union, single market, freedom to strike our own trade deals etc. Personally I think that should have happened at the general election - vote for the party, and then have an indicative vote on how you would like brexit to shape up. It would have given May a basis for her negotiations... the actual people's will.It also would have brought something useful with the election.

I think having all 6 options (not counting the referendum one) put to the public would be totally valid, it would finally show where people are. It would actually give us a chance to vote with some idea of what is being voted for (Never once did any one mention hard/soft brexit or what that would involve)

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