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I'm still worried we might crash out with No Deal... I just can't see them agreeing to another Referendum, as the Tories would just completely lose face over it. They can't risk losing voters over it...

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I don't trust them not to end up with No Deal due to incompetence.

Assuming they do avoid that, I'm hoping we get an extension, with a second referendum lined up. Put deal or remain on it (or no deal?) and just do whatever gets voted for.

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I still think Theresa May's deal going through is the most likely outcome; not that I want it to, but have always had a nasty feeling it will.  The EU has called for "acceptable" ideas by tomorrow, which ties in with what I saw predicted several weeks ago - that there will be a breakthrough on 8th March.

 

My gut feeling is that the UK will compromise on the Customs Union, as that seems to be the area where Labour is willing to forge a softer Brexit.  I'm by no means an expert on the ins-and-outs of it, but I believe that it would remove tariffs within it (so manufacturers could still move car parts etc freely) and also allow the EU to force the UK to place tariffs on external trade.  I personally don't have a problem with that, and as I've indicated, it might not be a bad thing if it puts a halt to some of our planned trade deals.

 

For what it's worth, I've never feared No Deal and still don't think there's any chance of it at all, but that's only my opinion.  I would really like voters to get a choice between this Soft Brexit vs Remain, but I don't think that's going to happen, unfortunately.  A couple of weeks ago there was talk of a clause that meant MPs would support the deal on the condition it was also put to the public, but I haven't seen much mention of it since.

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6 hours ago, Kav said:

So with all the uncertainty what do people think might well happen as of next week and voting on the Deal, No Deal & extending Article 50?

I can honestly see something along the lines of:

1: Deal gets rejected again at the meaningful vote.

2: MPs reject No Deal at the following vote.

3: MPs reject extension to Article 50.

4: Left with no other option, May withdraws A50 (and possibly resigns). 

5: It then goes back to another Referendum (and perhaps even a General Election).

If 1-3 happen I could see her trying a vote on her deal again and then just crashing out.

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8 minutes ago, Ashley said:

If 1-3 happen I could see her trying a vote on her deal again and then just crashing out.

That's pretty much what I think will happen.

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For what it's worth, I've never feared No Deal and still don't think there's any chance of it at all,



Do you mean you've never feared it would happen, or that you don't fear it if it did happen?

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2 hours ago, bob said:

Do you mean you've never feared it would happen, or that you don't fear it if it did happen?

 

 

 

Yeah, should have phrased that better - I meant I've never feared it would happen.  Not enough MPs are prepared to let it come to that.  I think they would back an extension, soft Brexit or 2nd referendum if it really looked like we were crashing out.

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Are we sure that we really, really want this so-called sovereignty after seeing just how shit our politicians actually are? 

It'll be a bit of a farce if May's deal goes through now, after seeing such little improvement over the last iteration of her proposed deal and after she was utterly decimated when they put it to a vote. Yet, it'll also be a piss-take if we go the extension route, because I'm not sure what the extension is going to solve. It's basically just wasting more time for things to not get done. How much further and for how much longer can the metaphorical can be kicked down that road? Surely there will come to a point where the EU will decide enough is enough and will want to move on?

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14 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

Are we sure that we really, really want this so-called sovereignty after seeing just how shit our politicians actually are? 

It'll be a bit of a farce if May's deal goes through now, after seeing such little improvement over the last iteration of her proposed deal and after she was utterly decimated when they put it to a vote. Yet, it'll also be a piss-take if we go the extension route, because I'm not sure what the extension is going to solve. It's basically just wasting more time for things to not get done. How much further and for how much longer can the metaphorical can be kicked down that road? Surely there will come to a point where the EU will decide enough is enough and will want to move on?

 

I'd say an extension would be an excellent result if you want to Remain.  Let's say the EU insists on a two-year extension, so as not to clash with the European Election (in which I would certainly want to participate if we're still in).  Then, after five years, the legitimacy of the Leave vote would be much, much weaker than it once was.

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Right now Brexit is reminding me of an old dad's army episode pretty much this scene

I think May's deal is the worst possible outcome, basically the benefits of Brexit (they do exist) can't be realised, and nor can the full benefits of being in the EU (which also exist) be realised. So I pretty much expect that it will end up being an interim arrangement, I suspect we will return to the EU at a later date on relatively negative terms, paying in effectively more and getting less out of it, or gravitate more to the US and distancing ourselves from the EU if the EU becomes less attractive in some way (like they refuse to let us return! :D). In any case, it's  been a real pigs ear.

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On ‎08‎/‎03‎/‎2019 at 1:15 PM, Grazza said:

 

I'd say an extension would be an excellent result if you want to Remain.  Let's say the EU insists on a two-year extension, so as not to clash with the European Election (in which I would certainly want to participate if we're still in).  Then, after five years, the legitimacy of the Leave vote would be much, much weaker than it once was.

See, everything you have just said sounds completely logical and there's actually some sense to it.

What Brexit has taught me is that, occasionally, logic goes out of the window. 

(also, I thought the EU/Parliament stated that any extension will be a short one, as in months. I can't see them extending anything close to 2 years in these current circumstances. Second referendum or general election on the other hand, then maybe)

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3 hours ago, Fierce_LiNk said:

What Brexit has taught me is that, in this day and age, logic goes out of the window.

Fixed for you.

I don't really care about Brexit anymore if I'm honest. The country will be fine whatever happens. We're not going to wake up the day after Brexit and be in a third world country. It certainly won't be better, but we'll soldier on the way we always do.

What bothers me most is the complete rejection of facts, figures and rationality. People don't want to hear expert opinions or facts anymore. Nowadays you could literally show someone irrefutable proof of something and they'll just come up with some "fake news" conspiracy bullshit. It's like all the years of movies about conspiracy theories and secret societies have finally become actual beliefs. With flat earthers, climate change deniers, anti-vaxxers and other conspiracy nuts, it seems like there's some sort of race on to see who can become the most retarded. This is what scares me most.

And what's the most basic, effective way to control these idiots? Xenophobia masked as patriotism. It worked for Trump and it worked for Brexit. Create some foreign devil to scare these idiots into voting for whatever you want. Doesn't matter if racially aggravated violence goes up a bit. It'll only happen in poorer areas, so whatever. They don't vote anyway.

The country's getting fucked alright, but Brexit is just the condom. The real dick is the knuckle dragging population and the assholes manipulating them.

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On 3/8/2019 at 9:09 PM, Pestneb said:

Right now Brexit is reminding me of an old dad's army episode pretty much this scene

Brexit is pretty much this - 

7z15MbmekfGiXcXSmraQzud3Y2bvkGnugzxpg-HZ

and

doomed.jpg

 

10 hours ago, Goafer said:

I don't really care about Brexit anymore if I'm honest. The country will be fine whatever happens. We're not going to wake up the day after Brexit and be in a third world country. It certainly won't be better, but we'll soldier on the way we always do.

And what's the most basic, effective way to control these idiots? Xenophobia masked as patriotism. It worked for Trump and it worked for Brexit. Create some foreign devil to scare these idiots into voting for whatever you want. Doesn't matter if racially aggravated violence goes up a bit. It'll only happen in poorer areas, so whatever. They don't vote anyway.

The country's getting fucked alright, but Brexit is just the condom. The real dick is the knuckle dragging population and the assholes manipulating them.

Politicians will sometimes say whatever they want to get into power, it's happened before and it will happen again. What bother's me the most is how divided the country is now which is a good old divide and rule tactic. The media isn't really helping that much in any of this because it sells news and has no wishes to be the peacemakers in all of this. I agree the country will be fine whatever happens. Yes the markets will drop, there will be panic buying and the media will go crazy but after a while things will return.

You talk about patriotism but I don't think that is the same as my view of nationalism and that is certainly on the rise across the EU. Whatever happens with the UK, I do worry about what is going to happen to the EU when the UK leaves especially with the rise of nationalism that the EU has failed to curb.

"They'll probably try to blame this on immigrants, you know, but don't fall for it. Look around, the Blight doesn't discriminate. Immigration was a distraction, to let the idiots in charge destroy the country without ordinary folk noticing". - The Prepper (Zombi U)

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The YouTuber CPGrey has done a couple of great Brexit round up videos which show just how futile the negotiations are. I recommend everyone watch them (but I'm not going to actually link them because I'm lazy).

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A lot of political commentators thinking May’s deal will get voted down again tonight and then an election will be looming, following an extension to Article 50.

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5 minutes ago, Kav said:

A lot of political commentators thinking May’s deal will get voted down again tonight and then an election will be looming, following an extension to Article 50.

Note to self: Make sure I'm playing something silly and fun when 7pm rolls around. I'll need all the light-hearted nonsense I can get.

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Well, that's a relief (for now). 

 

When there's a way to leave the EU without fracturing Britain and Ireland (Norway Plus), it doesn't seem logical to me that we'd choose another way.  Theresa May's deal way pretty darn "medium" in my opinion - too hard for Remainers and too binding for Leavers.

 

In principle, we could have had a hard Brexit and actually raised food and agricultural standards, as well as animal welfare, but the Hard Brexiteers were just trying to deregulate.  I hope their plan is over now.  Despite considering myself a lifelong right-winger, I will never trust the Economic Right again.  I thought Jeremy Corbyn was the epitome of logic tonight in his speech.

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Posted (edited)

I think there is agreement that May's deal is shockingly bad, beyond that... I almost feel a referendum is the most sensible choice, but actually think it would cause more problems than solutions, an you imagine the atmosphere in the country in the build up and aftermath? Either outcome would result in some very bitter individuals which could be dangerous.

Edited by Pestneb

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Rumours that they may try again.

tenor.gif

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I want to feel sorry for May, but it takes a lot of effort to do so. She's delayed and delayed for so long and tried to get the deal through by warning "it's this or No Deal" and purposefully timed the vote as late as possible so that she could scare enough MPs into going for it. I said earlier on today that I would not be surprised one bit if she tries the same thing one more time. 

Realistically, it's taken such a long time to get to this position and, even with an extension of a few months, that's not a lot of time to negotiate a brand new agreement. It's absurd that we are in the current state that we are in as a country and with the deadline looming. I am trying to see the point of an extension but I do not trust our Government one jot to do anything with any extra time that could potentially be given to them. I 100% believe that they would waste that time and would not come up with a defined solution to deliver a workable Brexit with a majority in Parliament. 

 

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Welp, this whole Brexit situation continues to be an utter shambles. Theresa May will be the scapegoat for a lot of it and while I don't feel it's entirely her fault she isn't helping herself by thinking she can get exactly what she wants in a democratic system by pushing her deal over and over again. But then, maybe it's also getting voted against because some politicians have their own ideas of what the perfect Brexit would be and don't want to vote for anything but that.

 

The government has shown a large degree of incompetency as a whole and I now suspect this country is doomed to a no deal Brexit and everything imported will become ludicrously expensive to purchase as international companies try to make up for any potential shortfall in profits.

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I can’t wait to find out later which MPs truly believe that “No Deal is better than a bad Deal”.

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I can’t wait to find out later which MPs truly believe that “No Deal is better than a bad Deal”.
It's going to be eye-opening that's for sure. Time for some hardcore Brexiteers to put their money where their mouth is.
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Thing is, all the government needs to do is quietly revoke Article 50 to stay in the EU, give everybody a blue passport, have a few weeks of long queues at airports/food rationing/eating rats etc, mention something about charging people for data roaming in Europe and nobody will ever know. 

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Perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, but I really think the hardest type of Brexit now reasonably likely is Jeremy Corbyn's "Customs Union but not Single Market" idea.  Norway Plus is now the "medium" option, and Remain is always a possibility, perhaps via a referendum or just a revocation.  You could put one of those choices (whichever one Parliament agrees is possible) to the people:

 

  • Leave the EU but remain in Customs Union
  • Remain

 

or

 

  • Leave the EU but remain in Single Market and Customs Union
  • Remain

 

Either way, I'm pretty relaxed about it now.  Unless Theresa May tries to get her deal through a third time!

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