2013: The platform deluge of the 90s reborn?

[Dcubed]

So with two new consoles announced in just the last two days alone (Valve's Steambox http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=506899 and NVidia's Shield Handheld http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=507099) and a further 3 consoles due to arrive late this year/early 2014 (Ouya, PS4 and Xbox 720), is anyone else here getting a flashback to the mid 90s; when pretty much everyone had a crack at making their own game console?

 

It's pretty crazy really! It's just been the "big 3" for the last decade and now all of a sudden, consoles are popping up left-right and centre! (granted, I fully expect stuff like Shield to crash and burn; if indeed it doesn't follow the Panasonic Jungle's example and just disappears out of existence before it launches)

 

Weird times at the moment! I wonder if it comes as a result of the past generation (gen 7) just lasting too long, or if it's a sign of an impending crash as the market becomes too fragmented for its own good?

 

The 90s saw these flies get swatted away, but with a burgeoning indie market now in place, I wonder if there may indeed now be room for more platforms (certainly not all will survive, but could we see more distinction between different surviving devices? - With Nintendo doing their own thing, someone filling in for generic AAA traditional games and one more for indie/mobile games on the TV/and maybe on the go as well)

 

What do you guys make of it?

[Cube]

Ouya is going to fail. Outside the people who have already "purchased" it, it won't get noticed. The only people who seem to care are other Kickstarter projects who are simply using it's Kicksterter success as a marketing tool. They'd need to spend much more than their Kickstarter donations to get noticed by the public. Without the public, no developer will care about it. The requirement of developers needing to alter their games for - and the lack of Google Play Store - is a massive problem, as is the lack of it's own franchises.

 

NVidia's Shield Handheld also doesn't have odds going for it. While, being a proper Android device (so it will have a lot more games than Ouya), the only area that Android is lacking now is games. Which is kind of a problem for Android-powered gaming devices - and probably why not many people took notices of the Sony Xperia Play or Archos GamePad.

 

I really don't see these as games consoles, but as Android experiments.

 

As for Steambox - it's just a linux PC. It's quite hard to predict if companies will start to develop for Linux and it needs Half-Life 3 at launch to advertise it.

[Dcubed]

Ouya is going to fail. Outside the people who have already "purchased" it, it won't get noticed. The only people who seem to care are other Kickstarter projects who are simply using it's Kicksterter success as a marketing tool. They'd need to spend much more than their Kickstarter donations to get noticed by the public. Without the public, no developer will care about it. The requirement of developers needing to alter their games for - and the lack of Google Play Store - is a massive problem, as is the lack of it's own franchises.

 

NVidia's Shield Handheld also doesn't have odds going for it. While, being a proper Android device (so it will have a lot more games than Ouya), the only area that Android is lacking now is games. Which is kind of a problem for Android-powered gaming devices - and probably why not many people took notices of the Sony Xperia Play or Archos GamePad.

 

I really don't see these as games consoles, but as Android experiments.

 

As for Steambox - it's just a linux PC. It's quite hard to predict if companies will start to develop for Linux and it needs Half-Life 3 at launch to advertise it.

 

Out of the ones shown so far, I reckon that the Steam Box has the best chance of success. It fills a niche that is under significant threat (or at least will be in the future), so there's a sizable potential market there (and they do have some killer software that could drive hardware sales they were at least timed exclusives; as well as support from almost everyone on the existing Windows version of Steam, who would need somewhere else to go if MS do fully lock down Windows in the future...). The problem for Valve though is a matter of resources as they're a relatively small (and private) company; with nowhere near the R&D, marketing and operating muscle of the bigger players.

 

I think another big problem for the android based platforms is not just the lack of exclusive titles, but also the ever present dominance of iOS and the ever looming possibility of Apple stealing everyone's lunch with the phantom of the fabled Apple Television/iOS console/TV apps/whatever. If they ever did decide to jump into the TV device market, they could easily crush everyone else like Ouya into dust.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Dcubed

[Rowan]

I'd be tempted by a Steambox purely because of how cheap games can get as a result of Steam sales and bundles. That and the fact I'm preferring digital download rather than game discs and boxes which just take up space.

[Agent Gibbs]

The Sheild is ugly as sin, but for me it could potentially replace my need for a vita, as i can just get ePSXe and emulate my PSone library, and then just use it as an emulating machine!

 

although i can do the same with my S3 and one of those gaming pads coming for the android market.....

 

As for PC streaming, its a little lackluster due to its reliance on the end users PC specifications, i use a laptop with a 1gb 9600GT graphics card and a 2.1ghz processor, and its not gooe enough anymore, so unless i drop £500-1000 on a more powerful desktop/laptop then that side is useless for me, and potentially for many others. its an understandable move from nVidia, as if they had decided to release a box with it, it eats into graphics card sales and competes with the WiiU, if they went for an onlive system it does the same of eating into hardware sales. Conversely it could encourage some to upgrade, but confidence in the system needs to be high.

 

its a nice idea but its aimed squarely at the mobile market, and that is excelling because casuals don't need a dedicated and separate platform to carry round along with their phone when they want to game (the all in one effect) so its not going to take off there either i'd have thought.

 

If Vita games could be ported to it then it could steal market from that though which would kill the vita if it did as its first party exclusives couldn't carry it alone, but i doubt anyone would port them to the sheild android platform unless it had a sufficient userbase, which i can't see happening.

 

The ouya i think Cube covers well really, i can't add to that.

 

Steambox you say...best read up on that as i have no idea

Edited January 7, 2013 by Agent Gibbs
revised it because of mega misconception level...probably some left in there as it is

[Cube]

but also the ever present dominance of iOS

 

I don't thin games console/TV/etc manufactures need to worry much about Apple - their main successes have been in new and early markets. Being the first well-made product in the new market, they become the product to own.

 

However, I've recently noticed that the iPhone is no longer the phone and the iPad is no longer the tablet: they're now simply a phone and a tablet.

 

They'll still continue to be hugely successful, but people are considering other products - Apple are no longer the default option.

 

I don't think Apple have the right kind of set-up/research/marketing to tackle an already-competitive market.

[Dcubed]

I don't thin games console/TV/etc manufactures need to worry much about Apple - their main successes have been in new and early markets. Being the first well-made product in the new market, they become the product to own.

 

However, I've recently noticed that the iPhone is no longer the phone and the iPad is no longer the tablet: they're now simply a phone and a tablet.

 

They'll still continue to be hugely successful, but people are considering other products - Apple are no longer the default option.

 

I don't think Apple have the right kind of set-up/research/marketing to tackle an already-competitive market.

 

Well the "TV app" market is still small, young and lacks both standardisation and a strong leader. There's still time for them to jump in and establish themselves; assuming that they really are actually interested in doing so (though with Steve Jobs out of the picture... who knows!)

 

If another competitor was to jump into the fray, they're still the most likely candidate IMO.

[Cube]

The only people who seem to care are other Kickstarter projects who are simply using it's Kicksterter success as a marketing tooll.

 

Further to this - the first big project which could have supported Ouya - Godus - has not reached it's funding target to support Ouya.

[flameboy]

I'm extremely tempted by the Steam Box. I wish it worked as some sort of modular PC. Where I could upgrade down the years with "steam box" branded graphics cards that just plug and play way easier without any of the hassle of regular PC gaming. Sure I'd likely have to pay a premium price but I don't care!

 

I don't think any of these android consoles are going to succeed whatever format they take. They are trying latch onto the tablet market and that casual side of things. Sure there has been an explosion on 7 inch tablets but I don't think gaming is the primary focus of these devices. People are buying them because of what else they can offer. I saw over xmas a lot about how parents are buying them for kids but I definitely think a far amount would not buy them if they were purely gaming devices. It feels like how I was as a kid my parents for a long time bought my brother and me computers so we could use educational software and other things. For example we had a BBC Micro with a stack of Fun School games, then we went from that to an Amiga with other education titles and word processing/paint based programs. However they always came second best to games and they soon stopped pushing this agenda and let us buy a Megadrive.

 

There is however a certain stimulus for these products by the longer gaming cycle we are in. If they are to stand any chance of succeeding they need to be affordable and out before E3 and the xbox 720/ps4 announcements. They may get impluse buys for people hankering for new hardware as a result.

 

If we are about to get a new deluge of machines I feel sorry for the suckers who plump for them. I'll never forget my friend Richard first trying to convince me that the Phillips CDi was the future and then that the CD32 was the best console ever.

Edited January 7, 2013 by flameboy

[Captain Falcon]

Didn't think it was quite own topic worthy given we have this one here and the details are slim but some more insight into the steam box can be found here.

 

In a nutshell, it confirms Valve's investment into a miniture PC designer and that they intend to ship a Steam optimised product later this year. There is a picture of the prototype, named Piston.

 

The say it will match specs of their current performance level device (which is modular like their basic one too) and EG gives a nice run down of what that currently is.

 

A quad-core 64-bit, x86-based 32nm processor running at up to 3.2GHz (with 4MB of Level2 Cache)

An integrated graphics processor (GPU) containing up to 384 programmable graphics cores (or shaders)

4GB-8GB of DDR3 RAM

64GB-1TB of internal solid-state SSD storage (with up to 12Gbps throughput speeds)

Three display ports providing maximum resolution of 4096x2160 (including one DisplayPort v1.2 and * 2 Mini-DisplayPorts v1.2)

Four eSATAp 3.0 ports

Four USB 3.0 ports

Four USB 2.0 ports

1Gb Ethernet port

Three audio ports (1 input and 2 outputs: 1 copper and 1 optical)

 

That's designed to run windows but clearly Valve have no indication of going that route as it would add to licencing costs and bog down performance - the issue then becomes getting devs to ditch D3D. Also, that device comes in at a rather pricey $1100 so something will have to give there as you can easily build a more powerful device for half that cost though it sure won't look as pretty or use anywhere near as little power.

 

In some ways, I'm not sure I'd want them to go the full modular route as it doesn't actually solve the issue of simplfying PC gaming and that's what they need to do. I think the iPhone model would be better of one new device each year and games have to conform to a minimum standard. So say after 3 years, a new game would run on high on a 3rd gen machine, medium on a 2nd gen, and low on a 1st gen. In year four, dev they have the choice of making it work with older devices but it's up to them whether they want to go for the market share and risk compromising their game. Either way, every game gets labelled with which generation it will work with and to what standard. I also dare say they could follow the phone subscription model like Xbox in the US whereby they have you sign up with an initial payment and then give X amount of money to spend each month as part of your contract with free gifts for certain occasions.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Captain Falcon

[Dcubed]

That Piston surely looks too small to be packing that kind of hardware no?

 

Either way, they did say that they wanted to release hardware every 3 years or so a whilesback I believe, so I could certainly imagine that happening. It would be like a middleground between elongated console lifecycle and the annual/subannual upgrade cycle of phones/tablets.

 

Would surely be better than the inevitable yearly refresh of an Apple game/app console!

[Choze]

These are not quite the same thing. They are extending current platforms for Android or Steam effectively. Steam box could be something but we are not 100% sure yet. Some of the ideas look like pc's in a box. But whats stopping people from doing the same themselves at some point?

 

The Nvidia device (requires seperate dongle for your tv) looks like a mess in terms of design but it is one (of many) solutions when it comes to getting your pc games to a tv. It will interesting to see how video works when it comes these devices. Encoding and streaming a 1080p video on the fly for a game is not a piece of cake. Given that decent quality encoding still takes time on the 3770k core i7 Nvidia are obviously over hyping their convoluted solution. Especially when the same machine also has to run the damn game.

 

I don't thin games console/TV/etc manufactures need to worry much about Apple - their main successes have been in new and early markets. Being the first well-made product in the new market, they become the product to own.

 

However, I've recently noticed that the iPhone is no longer the phone and the iPad is no longer the tablet: they're now simply a phone and a tablet.

 

They'll still continue to be hugely successful, but people are considering other products - Apple are no longer the default option.

 

I don't think Apple have the right kind of set-up/research/marketing to tackle an already-competitive market.

 

Apple will be fine. They always have focused exclusively on the Premium side of things. The big battle was always predicted to be the position android is in now. Symbian killed itself and windows mobile did nothing. It seems like evryone is treating Android as the standard now. Apple will always do their own thing.

[Cube]

That's why I said that the iPhone and iPad will still be hugely successful.

 

I think the smartphone/tablet market will become like the PC market - Android for most people (like Windows for PCs), iOS in a similar vein as Mac. And Ubuntu is popping it's head into smartphones, so it will likely get the same "just for extreme nerds" tag as Linux.

[Dcubed]

Well! This is a surprisingly relavatory interview!

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/8/3852144/gabe-newell-interview-steam-box-future-of-gaming

 

We've heard lots of rumors about the Steam Box, including that Valve's own hardware would be "tightly controlled." Can you tell us more about Valve's own hardware effort?

 

The way we sort of think of it is sort of "Good, Better," or "Best." So, Good are like these very low-cost streaming solutions that you’re going to see that are using Miracast or Grid. I think we’re talking about in-home solutions where you’ve got low latency. "Better" is to have a dedicated CPU and GPU and that’s the one that’s going to be controlled. Not because our goal is to control it; it’s been surprisingly difficult when we say to people "don’t put an optical media drive in there" and they put an optical media drive in there and you’re like "that makes it hotter, that makes it more expensive, and it makes the box bigger." Go ahead. You can always sell the Best box, and those are just whatever those guys want to manufacture. [Valve's position is]: let's build a thing that’s quiet and focuses on high performance and quiet and appropriate form factors.

 

So are most of these going to be Linux-based Steam Boxes?

 

We’ll come out with our own and we’ll sell it to consumers by ourselves. That’ll be a Linux box, [and] if you want to install Windows you can. We’re not going to make it hard. This is not some locked box by any stretch of the imagination. We also think that a controller that has higher precision and lower latency is another interesting thing to have.

 

So, multiple "Steam Certified" pieces of hardware (the "Best " boxes) and one that they make and sell themselves? (ALA Google and their Nexus phones)

 

Interesting approach, especially when you consider their partnership with companies like NVidia who want to do local streaming and this following paragraph...

 

So how does mobile fit into your plans?

 

So this [steam Box] is called "Bigfoot" internally, and we also have "Littlefoot." [Littlefoot] says "what do we need to do to extend this to the mobile space?" Our approach will be pretty similar. We also think there’s a lot that needs to be done in the tablet and mobile space to improve input for games. I understand Apple's [approach]; all the way back in '83 when I met Jobs for the first time, he’s was so super anti-gaming.

 

In one of the designs that we’re building on the controller side, it has this touchpad and we’re trying to figure out where that’s useful. We don’t want to waste people’s money by just throwing in a touchpad. Once we understand what the role is of multitouch in these kind of applications then it’s easy to say you can use your phone for it.

 

So they intend to expand Steam onto mobiles as well at some point. Could Shield be the first step towards that future? (perhaps the Tegra platform and Steam will converge at some point!)

 

So maybe this explosion of platforms represents a zeitgeist of experimentation, with the intention of future standardization and convergence?

 

I wonder if it'll mean less platforms in total, or if we'll start seeing more platforms-within-platforms (platformception!) like TegraZone and stores within Steam.

 

Edit: Looks like there's another article out now with more details!

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/8/3852692/valve-linux-steam-box-local-gaming-server

 

Newell also tipped Valve's hand on target pricing for Steam Boxes built by partners, saying that the company sees three tiers of hardware specifications: "Good, Better," and "Best." He says the goal for a "Good" platform is a free device, but that one would probably start around $99 and eventually come down. Newell says a midrange device should cost around $300, and that the top-tier is only limited by how much someone is willing to spend.

 

Ok, so they ARE going down the Google route, but with 3 obvious tiers of hardware...

 

Good = Streaming device (Roku, Onlive Micro Console, Shield etc)

 

Better = Console with dedicated CPU/GPU that meets minimum specs, has no optical drive and comes with a controller (Valve's own official Steambox resides in this tier)

 

Best = A PC in a box - could have any hardware they want for any price they want

 

So perhaps it's a sign that these new platforms will be similar to Android and that they'll exist at an OS level, rather than hardware persay? In that case, could we be looking at this as a possible future...

 

Nintendo Console

Nintendo Handheld

Sony Console

Microsoft Console/Windows 8 & 9 (they're obviously trying to converge Xbox and Windows)

iOS

Google Play

Facebook

TegraZone

Steam/Steam Certified devices

Onlive

Edited January 9, 2013 by Dcubed

[are1981]

One thing I am sure about: I will stay away from any new consoles the next couple of years. With all the inbound and unannounced consoles now, I will wait to see which of them survives. For now, my Wii U, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, will do. I do need a new PC for many purposes, so I think I will acquire one good enough for PC gaming. And then I am set for a few years!

[Cube]

With Microsoft, you'll have:

 

- Next Xbox

- Windows

- Windows RT

- Windows Phone

[Dcubed]

With Microsoft, you'll have:

 

- Next Xbox

- Windows

- Windows RT

- Windows Phone

 

If they succeed in converging them though, they'll effectively be only one platform (running on many devices)

[Agent Gibbs]

Edit: Looks like there's another article out now with more details!

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/8/3852692/valve-linux-steam-box-local-gaming-server

 

 

 

Ok, so they ARE going down the Google route, but with 3 obvious tiers of hardware...

 

Good = Streaming device (Roku, Onlive Micro Console, Shield etc)

 

Better = Console with dedicated CPU/GPU that meets minimum specs, has no optical drive and comes with a controller (Valve's own official Steambox resides in this tier)

 

Best = A PC in a box - could have any hardware they want for any price they want

 

So perhaps it's a sign that these new platforms will be similar to Android and that they'll exist at an OS level, rather than hardware persay? In that case, could we be looking at this as a possible future...

 

Nintendo Console

Nintendo Handheld

Sony Console

Microsoft Console/Windows 8 & 9 (they're obviously trying to converge Xbox and Windows)

iOS

Google Play

Facebook

TegraZone

Steam/Steam Certified devices

Onlive

 

Theres no way i'm buying any new consoles now until they have a steady user base, besides i can get a decent PC to run steam on and use it for many other things.

 

the market is being flooded and its only going to dilute it

[Cube]

Look, a Windows 8 gaming tablet

 

[Captain Falcon]

Judging from Eurogamers and Gizmondo's remarks, that Window's 8 tablet seems just about to hold up with todays games but I can see it becoming obsolete in 3 years time and that's a lot of money to plump down for something that won't last even one typical console generation length. Then it will just be a tablet and web browsing isn't taxing any of them right now - even the much cheaper ones.

 

I'm also puzzled by Gabe's comments and his "plans" for the Steam Box - I use inverted commas because it doesn't even sound like he's sure what his ultimate plan is. Having multiple certified Steam devices might sound good for getting market penetration, like with Android, but just look how split the market is there with games running to varying standards across thousands for devices. I guess a Steam layer sitting on top of a Linux distro would give a certain level of common ground but devs still have the problem of they won't be able to accurately access the minimum level of system performance in the market beyond the very base requirements required for certification.

 

And then at what point do you raise that minimum level of performance and how do you commincate it to lots of people that their machines no longer play the latest games - at least on Android, the vast majority of apps are free and if it doesn't run, you haven't lost any money.

 

Obviously the tech savvy will know but then they can quite easily build a cheaper machine and install whatever they want on it without problems - they don't need this stuff simplifying. Just give them the new OS layer and they will be dual booting in no time as if nothing ever happened.

 

I get the feeling I missing something huge here but as an exercise in trying to bring PCs en mass to the living room via conformity and simplicity (in all areas), I don't believe he's going the right way about it... or at least he's doing a crap job of explaining.

[Choze]

Its still early days for Steambox, Valve are being open minded. Linux for gaming is exciting though. I also agree about the boot layer and such. Right now windows pc's arent great for booting from a tv. I am sure Gabe can pulll strings at ubuntu.

[darkjak]

Ouya has caused very much of a buzz among indie developers. There's a huge problem that it's so insanely expensive to make games for consoles nowadays. You need devkits, then you need to have the game clear a 300 page list of demands (I've been a beta tester and I've seen that list. It aint pretty and a lot of the stuff in it shouldn't be a concern for a game developer).

[Retro_Link]

Really interesting Bonus Round I thought discussing the Android consoles and Steambox and where they sit and how they affect (particularly Steambox) decisions made by Microsoft and Sony.

 

Gametrailers Bonus Round

 

http://www.gametrailers.com/full-episodes/e8113p/bonus-round-new-android-consoles--threat-or-annoyance-

[Cube]

Android consoles will have no affect. Steambox will need to market itself with a massive new game available at launch - namely Half-Life 3.

[Retro_Link]

Was actually trying to generate some potential further discussion.