Psychological Models

[Sméagol]

1] take the money. A pound is still a pound.

2] provide evidence. I find the situation highly illogical / bizar. You both deserve to be in prison, and why would you have evidence on him? But anyway, to provide evidence is the more rewarding option in this case. If the other guy would be my partner / friend, I would do the 50 / 50 thing.

 

The links Eddie posted are interesting too.

[Ramar]

1. B - Bugger off am I only getting a quid and the other gets nine.

 

2. I'd rat out the other guy, save myself. If we're both in prison, we're both probably shady characters who can't be trusted. So I'd do what I gotta do.

[EEVILMURRAY]

If the other guy would be my partner / friend, I would do the 50 / 50 thing.

If you went halves there would definately be some partnering in the showers. Depends who drops the soap first.

[Charlie]

1] take the money. A pound is still a pound.

2] provide evidence. I find the situation highly illogical / bizar. You both deserve to be in prison, and why would you have evidence on him? But anyway, to provide evidence is the more rewarding option in this case. If the other guy would be my partner / friend, I would do the 50 / 50 thing.

 

The links Eddie posted are interesting too.

 

Let's change the situation to something more logical. Golden Balls, a game show.

 

At the end there is a pot of money. You are playing against one other player who you have been with the whole show.

 

You get 2 balls, one says 'split' and one 'steal'. If both players choose split then the money is split 50/50. If one chooses steal and the other splits, the person who stole gets it all. If they both steal neither gets anything.

 

Before the choice, they have a minute to discuss what they are going to do.

 

Exactly the same situation, what would you do?

[MoogleViper]

Golden Balls, logical? Are you absolutely mental? It's the most ridiculous premise I've ever heard. Simply, if they choose steal, you get nothing, if they choose share, you get something. SO you can either share it with them or take it all. Obviously, you're gonna take it all. There's absolutely no benefit to sharing (other than altruism). And one more reason, to choose steal, they won't get anything if they choose steal, whereas if you chose share they'd get it all.

 

It works better with more people. if only 1 says steal, they get it all, whereas if more than one says steal then they get nothing and the sharers share it. There was a show that did that, can't remember what it was though.

[chairdriver]

Let's change the situation to something more logical. Golden Balls, a game show.

 

At the end there is a pot of money. You are playing against one other player who you have been with the whole show.

 

You get 2 balls, one says 'split' and one 'steal'. If both players choose split then the money is split 50/50. If one chooses steal and the other splits, the person who stole gets it all. If they both steal neither gets anything.

 

Before the choice, they have a minute to discuss what they are going to do.

 

Exactly the same situation, what would you do?

 

Well in the discussion the only option you have is to say "Yeah I'll split", because there is absolutely no benefit to saying you'll steal. So essentially it comes down to how trustworthy the person is, and your impression of what the other player will do.

 

Realistically the best tactic is to say: "I'll steal, you split, then I'll split the money 50/50". If they don't hold their end of the deal they're a dick, you don't don't hold your end of the deal you're a dick.

[heroicjanitor]

It's the same thing really. Without knowing the other person, you can't predict what they will do. Therefore your choices are

 

Steal: All or nothing

 

Share: Half or nothing

 

So steal is your best bet.

[chairdriver]

It's the same thing really. Without knowing the other person, you can't predict what they will do. Therefore your choices are

 

Steal: All or nothing

 

Share: Half or nothing

 

So steal is your best bet.

 

But then, the fact that both players will use the same logic distorts this. If steal is always your best bet, then you'll always get nothing, because the opponent will always choose steal too.

[heroicjanitor]

Yeah true. People almost always have their mind made up before they come in about what they will do though so it's fairly random. Brushing up on cold reading would be my first step but no matter how good I was I wouldn't be able to convince myself that I know them. I'd do what I came in to do probably.

[EEVILMURRAY]

Plus in Golden Balls there's the game beforehand, where you get to see if someone's bullshitting or not.

[Charlie]

But then, the fact that both players will use the same logic distorts this. If steal is always your best bet, then you'll always get nothing, because the opponent will always choose steal too.

 

If you watch Golden Balls you'll see this isn't actually true though. Loads of times they agree to split and then one person gets screwed over.

 

 

THe good bit starts at around 1:40.

[Iun]

I've never seen Goldenballs, sounds like the classic model though! How often do people steal?

[Dannyboy-the-Dane]

I haven't heard of Golden Balls, but the more common version of the Prisoner's Dilemma seems closer to that scenario.

[Frank]

If I'm perfectly honest & true to myself I know that I'd prefer (b). I have weird characteristics that sometimes aren't the best.

 

I'd also give evidence. Surely if there's evidence the truth should be revealed.

<<I should be ashamed>>

[Iun]

If I'm perfectly honest & true to myself I know that I'd prefer (b). I have weird characteristics that sometimes aren't the best.

 

I'd also give evidence. Surely if there's evidence the truth should be revealed.

<<I should be ashamed>>

 

Hah, not too worry. Your conclusion is the most common, so you're not alone.

 

You amoral, cutthroat bandit, you.

[Emasher]

1) I'd choose option A, as my friend might as well benefit. I don't really care about the £1 though.

 

2) Provided I don't know what the other person will do, and our actions are independent from each other, giving the evidence seems like the most beneficial strategy as the risk is the same in both cases, but one has a better reward.